Petroleum Economics Istvan Csato Department of Geological Sciences

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Presentation transcript:

Petroleum Economics Istvan Csato Department of Geological Sciences University of South Carolina January 2002 Source: EIA

World Oil Demand Oil Consumption Declines: Oil embargo, 1973 Revolution in Iran, 1979 Economic crisis in Asia and FSU, 1997-98

World Oil Demand Increments in Oil Consumption by Region Largest increase: Asia

World Oil Demand Oil Consumption per Capita by Region Declines: Industrialized countries: oil price crises EE/FSU: collapse of communism Developing countries: no decline

World Oil Demand Oil Intensity by Region Continuous decline

World Oil Demand Oil Consumption by Sector Main area of growth: Industrialized countries: Transportation Developing countries: Other uses

World Oil Demand Oil Consumption in the Developing World Expected Increase from 1999 to 2020: China: 6.1 MBD South Korea: 1.2 MBD India: 3.9 MBD Middle East: 5.3 MBD Africa: 2.9 MBD Central and South America: 4.7 MBD

World Oil Demand Oil Consumption in the Industrialized World Expected Increase from 1999 to 2020: USA: 6.3 MBD Mexico: 2.2 MBD Canada: 0.3 MBD Western Europe: 1.5 MBD Japan: 0.35 MBD

World Oil Demand Oil Consumption in EE/FSU Expected Increase from 1999 to 2020: FSU: 4.1 MBD Eastern Europe: 0.2 MBD

World Oil Supply

World Oil Supply

World Oil Supply

World Oil Supply World Oil Production by Region More than 2/3 of increase in oil demand will be supplied by OPEC

World Oil Supply OPEC Oil Production Projected growth rate: 3.4% per year

World Oil Supply OPEC and Non-OPEC production

World Oil Supply Non-OPEC production by Region, 2020

Top World Oil Producers, 2000 World Oil Supply Top World Oil Producers, 2000 Country Production Estimates (million bbl/d) 1) Saudi Arabia 9.12 2) United States 9.08 (5.83 of which was crude oil) 3) Russia 6.71 4) Iran 3.81 5) Mexico 3.48 6) Norway 3.32 7) China 3.25 8) Venezuela 3.14 9) United Kingdom 2.75 10) Canada 2.74 11) Iraq 2.59 12) United Arab Emirates 2.51 13) Kuwait 2.25 14) Nigeria 2.15 15) Indonesia 1.56 16) Brazil 1.54 17) Libya 1.47 18) Algeria 1.43 Red: OPEC member Blue: Non-OPEC member

Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2000 World Oil Supply Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2000 Country Net Exports (million bbl/d) 1) Saudi Arabia 7.84 2) Russia 4.31 3) Norway 3.11 4) Venezuela 2.66 5) Iran 2.59 6) United Arab Emirates 2.18 7) Iraq 2.09 8) Kuwait 2.05 9) Nigeria 1.86 10) Mexico 1.44 11) Libya 1.29 12) Algeria 1.22 13) United Kingdom 1.06 Red: OPEC member Blue: Non-OPEC member

World Oil Supply 814 B bbl Total: 1030 B bbl

World Oil Trade