Global Supply & Demand of Soybeans and Soy Oil

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Presentation transcript:

Global Supply & Demand of Soybeans and Soy Oil Ratan Sharma, Ph.D U. S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC)

Soy oil Soybean oil is considered heart-healthy oil as it’s cholesterol-free and low in saturated fatty acids It contains 61 % poly-unsaturated fatty acids. Two fat components essential for health and well being, linoleic and linolenic acids, are also found in the right proportions in soybean oil. It is also a good source of vitamin E. Like fish oils, soybean oil contains omega-3, known to be protective against heart disease and cancer Now more than 50% of SBO is sold as branded oil in India

High oleic soy oil High oleic soy oil is also being very popular as industry preferred substitute for partially hydrogenated vegetable oils Used in all manners of processed foods especially the snack foods for deep frying High oleic soy oil is free from trans fats as well as lower in saturated fat and contains three times more of beneficial monounsaturated fatty acid compared to conventional SBO

USFDA health claim approval on the soy oil Recently in August 2017 US Food and Drug Administration FDA approved Bunge North America’s petition for a qualified health claim linking soybean oil consumption to reduced risk of heart disease Soybean oil is the US’ most commonly used ingredient and top dietary source of polyunsaturated fats Soy oil is the second largest edible oil used in India

Global Soyoil Consumption 2000/01 – 2016/17and USDA Forecasts for 2017/18

Soybean Oil: Worldwide Consumption (MMT) Country 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 India 4.05 4.75 5.5 USA 8.6 9.03 9.32 China 14.2 15.45 16 EU 1.95 2.17 Rest of the world 19.24 20.02 21.01 Total 48.04 51.2 54.0

U.S. Soyoil Consumption For All Purposes 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecasts for 2017/18

U.S. Net Vegoil Imports 2000/01 – 2016/17and USDA Forecast for 2017/18

U.S. Soy oil Exports 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecast for 2017/18

Global Vegetable Oils Stocks to Use Ratio 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecast for 2017/18

U.S. Combined Exports of Soybeans, Soymeal and Soyoil 2000/01 – 2015/16 and USDA Forecasts for 2016/17 and 2017/18

Argentina’s Exports of Soybeans, Soymeal and Soyoil 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecasts for 2017/18

Brazil’s Exports of Soybeans, Soymeal and Soyoil 2000/01 – 206/17 and USDA Forecasts for 2017/18

Global Exports of Soybeans and of Soymeal + Soyoil 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecasts for 2017/18

India’s Vegetable Oil Imports 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecast for 2017/18

Oil consumption pattern in India – Zone wise (values in %) Category North East West South Palm oil 41 54 40 68 Soybean Oil 19 6 28 Mustard 21 5 1 Sunflower 18 Other oils 16 7

India: Domestic volume availability of various oils (all figures in MMT) Oil category 2013/14 14/15 15/16 Groundnut Oil 0.42 0.24 0.23 Soybean Oil 1.19 1.06 0.93 Rapeseed Oil 2.06 1.68 1.63 Cotton Oil 1.40 1.29 1.10 Sun & Safflower Oil 0.15 Sesame 0.13 0.16 0.12 Rice Bran Oil 0.90 0.91 Others 0.61 0.57 0.60 Total local Oil 6.94 6.04 5.69

India’s Consumption and Imports of Vegoil 2000/01 – 2016/17and USDA Forecasts for 2017/18

Japan’s Consumption of Rapeseed Oil and Soybean Oil 2000/01 – 2015/16 and USDA Forecasts for 2016/17 and 2017/18

Global Palm Oil Production and Consumption 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecasts for 2017/18

U.S. Consumption of Palm Oil and Canola Oil 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecasts for 2017/18

U.S. Consumption of Vegoils for Food and For Industrial Products 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecasts for 2017/18

Global Production of Rapeseed and Sunseed 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecasts for 2017/18

Global Demand Growth for Corn, Cotton, Soybeans, Rice and Wheat 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecast for 2017/18 Soybeans Demand Up 229%, Corn Up By 123%, Wheat Up Only by 34%

Global Production and Consumption of Soybeans 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecast for 2017/18

Annual Growth in Global Soybean Consumption 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecasts for 2017/18 Source: USDA, August 2017

Global Soybean Ending Stocks 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecast 2017/18

Soybean Production: U. S Soybean Production: U.S., Argentina, Brazil, China and India 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecast for 2017/18

Argentina’s Soybean Exports and Crush 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecasts for 2017/18

U.S. Soybean Production: 2000 – 2016 an USDA Forecast for 2017

U.S. Soybean Exports and Crush 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecast for 2017/18

Average Oil Content of U. S Average Oil Content of U.S. Soybeans 2000/01 – 2015/16 and Forecast for 2016/17

U.S. Soybean Exports 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecast for 2017/18

Argentina’s and Brazil’s Soybean Harvested Area 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecasts for 2017/18

U.S, Argentina and Brazil Soybean Stocks at End of Their Marketing Years 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecast for 2017/18

World’s Largest Soybean Importers Forecast for 2017/18 Marketing Year

Soybean Imports by China and Rest of World 1995/96 – 2016/17and USDA Forecast for 2017/18 Because of its rapid growth in soybean imports China has supplanted the rest of the world as the largest market. In fact, an argument can be made that China’s enormous appetite for soybeans has caused the rest of the world to reduce its soybean imports.

Bangladesh’s Imports of Soybeans and Soymeal 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecast for 2017/18

Pakistan’s Imports of Soybeans and Soymeal 2004/15 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecast for 2017/18

Canada’s Production and Exports of Soybeans 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecast for 2017/18

South American Soybean Production 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecast for 2017/18

Ukraine’s Production and Exports of Soybeans 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecast for 2017/18

North Africa’s Imports of Soybeans and Soymeal 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecast for 2017/18

Japan’s, South Korea’s and Taiwan’s Imports of Soybeans 2000/01 – 2015/16 and USDA Forecasts for 2016/17 and 2017/18 Soybean imports by Japan and South Korea have sharply decline as more of domestic needs are met by imports of soymeal and soyoil. However, Taiwan’s imports of soybeans are stable.

EU Imports of Soybeans and Soymeal 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecast for 2017/18

Mexico’s Imports of Soybeans and Soymeal 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecasts for 2017/18

Southeast Asia’s Imports of Soybeans and Soymeal 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecasts for 2017/18

Caribbean’s Imports of Soybeans and Soymeal 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecasts for 2017/18

Central America’s Imports of Soybeans and Soymeal 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecasts for 2017/18

Global Soybean Consumption 2000/01 – 2017/18 and Trend to 2027/28 If Trend Continues World Will Need 80 MMT Additional Soybeans in a Decade

Global Consumption Of Protein Meals 2000/01 – 2016/17 and USDA Forecasts for 2017/18

Thank You