State and Federal Issues Ron Deutsch Executive Director Fiscal Policy Institute

State Budget Process and Timeline September/October – Call Letter to State Agencies November – January – DOB crafts the Executive Budget Beginning January – State of the State Address Mid-January – Release of Governor’s Executive Budget Proposal Late January/Early February – Legislative Hearings on the Budget March 1– Consensus Revenue Forecast Mid March - One House Budgets Released Conference Committees Late March – Negotiations in full swing April 1 – Budget deadline

What’s in the State Budget State Operating Funds spending is $100.1 billion - for the eighth consecutive year, holding growth to 2 percent (State Operating Funds exclude Federal funds and capital). All Funds spending $168.3 billion for FY 2019. Protects New Yorkers from negative federal tax implications with new state tax code. Continues the phase-in of the $4.2 billion Middle Class Tax Cut to deliver relief to six million New Yorkers - saving households $250 on average and $700 annually when fully effective. Increases Education Aid by approximately $1 billion (3.9 percent), to a record total of $26.7 billion for the 2018-19 school year and a 36 percent increase since 2012. Requires school districts to provide information on how they allocate funding to schools in order to increase transparency.

Invests $25 million to expand prekindergarten and after school programs. Implements the nation's most aggressive program to combat sexual harassment. Provides historic new $250 million investment to NYCHA to deliver quality living conditions to tenants and implements new oversight measures by statute and executive order. Provides $7.6 billion in State support for higher education in New York - an increase of $1.5 billion or 25 percent since FY 2012. Invests $118 million to continue the successful Excelsior Scholarship. Includes $1.2 billion for strategic programs to make college more affordable and encourage the best and brightest students to build their future in New York.

Revenue: 2019 Executive All Funds Receipts Totals- $168.2 Billion Source: FY 2019 Executive Budget Financial Plan, Jan. 2018.

The Importance of Federal Funding in the NYS Budget *Includes Temporary & Disability Assistance; Public Health; Children's Services, Mental Hygiene; Senior Services & others Source: NYS Division of the Budget, FY 2019 Executive Budget Financial Plan.

What Does the New Tax Bill Mean for NYS? Winners and Losers

Impact of the Repeal of the Individual Mandate in New York The Center for American Program recently published estimates of the increase in uninsured by Congressional District under the Senate GOP tax bill According to these estimates, the collective impact of uninsured by 2025 for New York State would be approximately 843,000 people, which breaks down to: 387,200 would lose Medicaid coverage 270,500 would lose insurance from the individual market 185,100 would lose employer-sponsored insurance http://fiscalpolicy.org/house-and-senate-tax-bill-will-hurt-new-yorks-poorest-taxpayers-and-result-in-many-losing-health-coverage

NYS Response to Federal Tax Law Changes Primary focus: SALT: State and Local Tax Deduction Workarounds Cost NYS $14.3 billion Response: Payroll vs. Income Tax Swap Charitable Contributions for Public Services

INCOME INEQUALITY IN NEW YORK

Child Poverty Rates in Many Upstate Cities Are Abysmally High PERCENT OF CHILDREN LIVING BELOW THE FEDERAL POVERTY LINE Source: American Community Survey 2007-2011 and 2012-2016 five-year data.

Funding for Social Welfare Agencies Continues to Decrease Sources: FPI Calculation of FY18-19 Executive Budget, NYS Division of the Budget, January 2018.

Aid and Incentives to Municipalities Has Fallen by Almost Three Fourths Since 1980 Note: Adjusted for inflation, 2016 dollars. New York City last received this aid in state fiscal year 2010.

State and Local Government Employment, Including Public Schools CES EMPLOYMENT, NEW YORK 2009-2016 *CES numbers adjusted each year for the prior year Source: Fiscal Policy Institute analysis of NYS Dept. of Labor, Current Employment Statistics, revised to October 2017.

Federal Issues - SNAPshot Timeline

Timeline of the Farm Bill Thursday, April 12: The House Agriculture Committee released its proposed Farm Bill. Wednesday, April 18: The House Agriculture Committee held a markup to review and consider amendments to the House Farm Bill. At the end of the markup, the House Agriculture Committee voted along party lines to report the bill out of committee. Sometime in April: Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Pat Roberts of Kansas has said he wants to introduce and mark up the Senate’s version of the Farm Bill in April. This could slip to May. Sometime in May, possibly as early as the week of May 7: The full House is expected to vote on the version of the Farm Bill passed by the House Agriculture Committee. Late spring or early summer: After the Senate Agriculture Committee markup, the Farm Bill would move to the Senate floor for a full Senate vote. Then the House and Senate would presumably need to reconcile the differences between their versions of the legislation.

About the Farm Bill Farm Bill is reauthorized every five years and allows policy makers a chance to review programs, consider changes, and address implementation barriers About 80 percent of the entire bill focuses solely on nutrition programs while the other 20 percent is for crop insurance, subsidies, and other agriculture-related programs Majority of the Farm Bill is authorized through mandatory spending, including SNAP House Agriculture Subcommittee on Nutrition released 2018 Farm Bill proposal earlier this month with numerous cuts and changes to SNAP

SNAP Cuts and CHANGES In the Farm Bill A quick reminder that the tax-cut bill will cost $1.9 trillion over next 10 years… SNAP benefit cuts average around $23.1 billion over next 10 years Diverts much of that $23.1 billion to a risky new scheme of ineffective work programs and unforgiving penalties that would take food assistance away from those who don’t meet the new work requirements To that end, the ineffective “work programs” are underfunded and will likely fail to help people find jobs and only take food assistance away from struggling families The 2018 Farm Bill breaks from the long history of bipartisan commitment to ensure struggling families have enough to eat SNAP is a NUTRITION program, not a WORK program, so cutting it and placing new work requirements will weaken it and increase food insecurity

WHAT DOES SNAP LOOK LIKE IN NYS? SNAP reached 2.8 million New York residents in FY17 (15 percent of the population) More than 59 percent of SNAP participants are in families with children Almost 46 percent of SNAP participants are in families with members who are elderly or disabled 419,000 working families used SNAP to feed their families More than $4.7 billion was spent in federal dollars by SNAP at grocery stores, farmers’ markets, and other retailers Average SNAP benefit per person per meal is $1.50 Source: CBPP and Hunger Solutions NY

SNAP IN NYS: WHO BENEFITS? Graphic from Hunger Solutions NY

Resources Go to www.fiscalpolicy.org CBPP.org