The Making of National Seasonal Wildland Fire Outlooks Timothy Brown Program for Climate, Ecosystem and Fire Applications Desert Research Institute Gregg Garfin Climate Assessment for the Southwest University of Arizona Holly Hartmann Department of Hydrology and Water Resources University of Arizona

Ultimate Objectives $2B/year in federal fire suppression even if there’s no big event!! Produce seasonal wildland fire potential outlook Develop standard content and protocols Improve use of climate products and forecasts Encompass both process and product

Stakeholder-driven Climate Science/Services Research Process

Workshop goals Increase organizational capacity Enhance multi-agency collaboration Improve use of forecast information and climatological analyses Transition results of research to an operational process for improved communication and decision making

Workshop participants Fire weather meteorologists Fuels specialists Fire specialists Fire management Climatologists 50-60 participants last year (beyond committee size)

Geographic Area Coordination Centers

Seasonal Fire Outlook Content- it’s a package of items, not just a map Executive summary Introduction and objectives Current conditions Climate outlooks Fire occurrence and resource outlooks Future scenarios and probabilities Management implications and concerns Summary and recommendations

Monitoring of current climate conditions Protocol/Needs Monitoring of current climate conditions Temperature/precipitation anomalies: mid & high elevations, complex terrain Snow: complex terrain, departure from usual ENSO:multiple definitions are an issue Circulation: more upper air observations Drought indices: multiple definitions (impact-based vs. hydro-based), soil moisture, scale

Monitoring of current fire & fuel conditions Protocol/Needs Monitoring of current fire & fuel conditions Fire danger Vegetation greenness:NDVI, land surface conditions Fuel moisture: presently use algorithms, not in situ observations Fire occurrence: data is abysmal Fire behavior: highly local

Outlooks/forecasts/predictions Protocol/Needs Outlooks/forecasts/predictions Relating episodic conditions to climate conditions, lightning, monsoon Long-range temperature/precipitation Circulation: synoptic patterns & CPC outlooks ENSO Drought forecasts Soil moisture forecasts Fire weather/danger indices

Future Scenarios Fire Family Plus tool: historical review + analog weather generator Priority sub-regions within Geographic Area: mortality areas  PJ dieoff, pine bark beetle Fuel-type considerations: carryover fuel, effects of snowcover (e.g., on standing grass) Climate considerations: 4-6 years ago + future Season ending event probabilities: e.g., abrupt or slow evolution of cool/wet conditions Focus on analogs: need ‘best practices’ guidance

Protocol/Final Product Fire Outlooks Seasonal fire occurrence/activity estimates Estimates of expected resource needs: for suppression, prescribed burning, fire use (plans for letting natural fires burn). Measure of Success Will fire managers give up resources for other regions If so, is it based on climate or fuels considerations?

Late Feb 2003

White area means we need more research, not that the forecast is for ‘normal’ conditions.

Colors indicate at some point during the period, not necessarily for the whole period.

Future of Product and Process Post-mortems and verification: how to verify shift in risk (fire potential), when the risk lacks good definition? Evolution of product Process continues to advance: Community actually using climate outlooks in a formal process NICC investing in training workshops for GACC meteorologists (information intermediaries). Will decision makers participate?