Robots and jobs: Empirical evidence and the citizen's perspective Bjoern Juretzki – Assistant to the Director DG CONNECT – Digital Industry

Our study on robots and jobs First published in 2014, just updated with more recent data from 2012 Based on European Manufacturing Survey with company-level data from around 3000 companies from seven European countries Covers all manufacturing sectors and all company sizes, representative data Questions about production processes, technical equipment in company, etc. Unique source of information!

Dissemination of industrial robots Global operational stock of industrial robots from 2005 to 2014 including a forecast for 2018 Global 2,327,000 Europe 1,480,778 1,332,218 1,235,389 1,153,097 +60% 1,035,301 1,059,162 994,264 1,020,731 949,823 922,838 32% 33% 33% 33% 34% 33% 32% 31% 29% 28% 22% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2018* continuous rise of the stock of operational industrial robots between 2005 and 2014, except for a decline in 2009 due to global economic crisis the operational stock of industrial robots in Europe is growing slower than in the rest of the world

Descriptive results Bigger firms are more intense user of robots than smaller firms (more investment capacity, larger volumes, more experience) Transport equipment heaviest user of robotics followed plastics, metal and electronics The larger the batch size, the more robots were used Clear gap emerging between large and small firms Spain has the most companies which use robots followed by France, Switzerland and Sweden (Germany second to last)

Labour productivity Main determinants (in this order): Vertical range (covering the whole chain from components to complete systems) Country Sector Export orientation Use of robots Companies with intensive utilisation of industrial robots show significant higher levels of labour productivity

Total factor productivity (TFP) TFP is the portion of output not explained by the amount of inputs used in production May account for up to 60% of economic growth Main determinants (in this order): Vertical range Sector Export orientation No additional effect of utilisation of industrial robots, positive effect probably eaten up by high investment costs

Employment trends Key factors influencing employment trends are turnover development (the better, the more employment is created) and firm age (the younger, the more employment is created) Despite a positive effect on labour productivity, no negative effect of (intensive) use of industrial robots but rather a neutral or even a slightly positive one

Impact of robot use on relocating production Firms which use robots intensively have a drastically smaller probability to relocate outside Europe than firms using no robots or using them less intensely The effect of robot use resp. intensive robot use differs greatly by firm size 14% Probability drops by 7-9% points Probability drops by 1-2% points 2% 5%

Recent OECD study "The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis" Task-based approach vs. occupation-based approach Taking into account heterogeneity of workers' tasks within occupations With this approach, on average across the 21 OECD countries, only 9% of jobs are automatable

The citizens' perspective Two Eurobarometer surveys on people's attitudes towards robots and autonomous systems (2012 and 2014) Representative survey for all 28 EU MS Broad range of questions covering whether people have ever used a robot, what their perception of robots are, how they feel about certain robotic applications Also covers attitudes towards robots and jobs

General view on robots Most positive: SE, DK, FI, Netherlands Most negative: MT, PT, EL, CY

Specific attitudes Most positive: FI, NL, DK, CZ Most negative: PT, ES, EL, CY

Replacebility

Conclusion Empirical evidence: Picture not as gloomy as some people and journalists want us to believe Robots can be a great tool for older workers Still: There are fears of citizens – and these fears have increased and must be taken seriously But: Citizens exposed to robots fear them less More of a perception problem than a real problem (yet) Monitor effects of robotics more closely, develop better methodologies Understand better what robots can actually do, especially in comparison with humans Engage in comprehensive outreach measures