The Role of Forestry in Adapting to Climate Change Diane Nicholls, RPF Chief Forester Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations Good Morning I have been asked to speak to you today on the role of Forestry in Adapting to climate change When I started preparing what I wanted to say, I quickly came to the point that the role of forestry in a changing climate is evolving. For it to be definitive, one would have to fully understand what climate change is and what its affects are going to be. Now, as we all know, neither is completely possible at this time with the tools and information we currently have So, what is key is the word ”Adaptation”

We will continue to use science to guide us as we go into the future What We Know Science tells us to expect: more variability in temperatures Changes in amounts and types of precipitation Changes in types and size of weather events Changes in ecosystems Resulting in changes in forest health With respect to understanding climate change, what do we know today --- science tells us to expect: More variability in temperatures Changes in amounts and types of precipitation Changes in types and magnitudes of weather events Changes in ecosystems and Resulting changes in forest health We will continue to use science to guide us as we go into the future

What We Know Are some affects We know that climate change will affect: Trees and other forest plants – their rate of growth, the ability of species to survive and thrive in their historic ranges, their susceptibility to disturbance or attack Wildlife species – their distribution, their susceptibility to changes in temperature, moisture and weather patterns in their habitat Fire frequency – historic fire and other natural disturbance patterns will be different Diseases and insects – higher frequency of epidemic outbreaks, broader or different distribution of historical pest and pathogen species We know that climate change will affect: Trees and other forest plants – their rate of growth, the ability of species to survive and thrive in their historic ranges, their susceptibility to disturbance or attack Wildlife species – their distribution, their susceptibility to changes in temperature, moisture and weather patterns in their habitat Fire frequency – historic fire and other natural disturbance patterns will be different Diseases and insects – higher frequency of epidemic outbreaks, broader or different distribution of historical pest and pathogen species

Lets take an example of some of the work done on forecasting This slides shows the results of some work from Tongli Wang at UBC who modelled relationships between climate (using data from 1961–1990 when the BEC zones were first mapped), and the geographic distribution of BCs16 ecosystem types When compared with (A) the model predicted current ecosystem distributions with high accuracy ( B). It was then used to predict the distribution of ecosystem climate niches for the last decade (2001–2009) and project future distributions for 20 climate change scenarios. they found that about 23% of the geographic area of BC has already shifted to climates characteristic of different ecosystem zones (Fig. b vs c). The magnitude of the shift (loss or gain) varied between among ecosystems. The most affected ecosystems included some high-elevation ecosystems: Interior Mountain Alpine (gray), Montane Spruce (pink), and sub-boreal pine spruce (turquoise blue); and Spruce Willow Birch (light green) where the loss of their suitable climate ranged from 46% to 59% of their total area. Substantial range expansions (between 51% and 77%) were projected for dry interior zones: Interior Douglas-fir (yellow), Ponderosa Pine (orange), Bunchgrass (red) and of the Interior Cedar Hemlock ecosystem (medium green) zones. The least affected were coastal Hw and coastal Fd (dark green and light yellow) and boreal black/white spruce (light blue). In general, they saw Hotter, drier summers + warmer winters = profound changes to ecosystems this is what we are experiencing along with major climatic events such as drought year, flooding this year, rolling into fires

What We Have Forecasted In BC we have completed 8 Regional climate Forecast Reports 3 Northern 3 Southern 2 Coastal These show the climatic changes that are forecasted for those areas In BC we have developed 8 regional forecast reports 3 in the north; 3 in the south and 2 coastal. These reports forecast the climatic conditional changes that we can expect. Are the modelled predictions definitive? No, but they are currently the best information that we have by inputting real data into our climate modelling And they give us a starting point from which to work

Actions – Adaptation and Mitigation Adaptation - strategies that reduce impacts of climate change on forests and increase resilience Mitigation - strategies that reduce greenhouse gases So, Given we know of these probable changes, we have an opportunity to use forest management and trees for both mitigation and adaptation The role that forestry can have in the combat with climate change is critical to our ecosystems

Actions – Adaptation and Mitigation We can take actions to reduce risk and respond to climate change through changes to some of our forest practices We are considering expected future climate and adapting our forest management Opportunities to optimize outcomes exist in: adaptive forest management practices, such as climate based seed transfer; and forest management for carbon What are some actions, what are we doing and what can we do more of with respect to using forestry as the tool it is….. First we can alter how we think about forest management – what we have done over the last 25 years may not be the best course of action for today or for the future We cannot rely on past practises giving us the same results This relates to seed transfer rules; stocking standards; planting densities; species selection, change of range of suitable species It also relates to updating BEC zones to reflect current and future reality to make the best choices

Actions – Adaptation Knowledge helps us make different decisions in our forestry activities to promote healthy, resilient and productive future forests and ecosystems: Tree species selection and Climate-based seed transfer – matching species and seeds/seedlings with planting sites that are climatically suitable for their growth now and in the future Stocking standards – increasing planting density to account for increased risk of mortality with climate change   We will continue to learn and adapt our practices over time Past practises need to change through education of foresters and land managers on climatic conditions, changes, impacts and options Things like the climate based seed transfer guidelines and tree species selection are tools that will enable adaptation of our forests

Actions - Mitigation The Forest Carbon Initiative - changing practices to consider forest carbon as a value Reducing the impact of activities that create emission of greenhouse gases Conducting activities on the land base that leverage the ability of trees to store carbon to our advantage We can leverage the opportunities provided by the capacities in our forests to grow and store carbon Improved utilization – reducing the burning of wood fibre in slash piles through increasing utilization and other means Incremental reforestation – replanting and rehabilitating areas where there is no legal reforestation obligation (including areas damaged by wildfire, insects, disease, or deforested by human causes, or other sites that would benefit from reforestation) Fertilization – applying fertilizer to high growth and yeild forests that are nitrogen deficient, prioritized to high site index areas Increased planting density – increasing planting density in areas already scheduled for reforestation where it doesn’t impact wildlife habitat

The Role of Forestry in Adapting to Climate Change Forest management can mitigate climate change by managing forest carbon to result in a positive net GHG benefit to the atmosphere Forest practitioners need to start considering carbon as a key forest value while managing the suite of values on crown land Managing forest carbon and helping to mitigate climate change will bolster the forest sector’s social license to operate on Crown land Forest management can mitigate climate change by managing forest carbon to result in a positive net GHG benefit to the atmosphere Forest practitioners need to start considering carbon as a key forest value while managing the suite of values on crown land Managing forest carbon and helping to mitigate climate change will bolster the forest sector’s social license to operate on Crown land

The Role of Forestry in Adapting to Climate Change We need to use the knowledge gained from past forestry practices………but apply that knowledge projecting into the future Forests and Forestry are tools for us to utilize for both adaptation and Mitigation of climate change Forest Management is green and climate friendly – that should be celebrated We need to use the knowledge gained from past forestry practices………but apply that knowledge projecting into the future Forests and Forestry are tools for us to utilize for both adaptation and Mitigation of climate change Forest Management is green and climate friendly – that should be celebrated

Questions?