Flagship 1 Priority Setting & Impact Acceleration Arega Alene Agricultural Economist, IITA Flagship Program Leader, Priority Setting & Impact Acceleration, CGIAR Research Program on Grain Legumes and Dryland Cereals

Rationale Smallholder agriculture in the drylands of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia is characterized by low adoption of improved agricultural technologies, poor market access, inefficient value chains, weak social institutions, social inequity, high risks and degraded natural resources. Social science research is needed to enhance the relevance and impacts of GLDC research through improved targeting and priority-setting, learning from adoption and impact studies , strategic gender research, and supporting scaling efforts. The objective of FP1 is to ensure that greater economic, social, and environmental impacts are realized through inclusive and demand-driven research that responds to smallholder farmer needs, market demand, and local and national priorities.

Clusters of Activities (CoAs) Foresight, climate change analysis, and priority setting (CoA 1.1) Value chains, markets, and drivers of adoption (CoA 1.2) Enhancing gender integration and social inclusion in the drylands (CoA 1.3) Enabling environments and scaling to accelerate impact (CoA 1.4)

FP1 Impact Pathway

CoA 1.1: Foresight, climate change analysis, and priority setting Foresight and ex-ante impact analyses building on the pre-proposal ex-ante evaluation to identify the research and technology options that are likely to have the greatest impacts and the areas where the research will be most relevant. Food supply, demand and price projections under climate change and other socio-economic drivers of change such as technology, population growth, and urbanization (e.g., changes in diets and consumer preferences with urbanization and income growth). Key research questions: Which lines of research and new technologies would have the greatest impacts on food and nutrition security and poverty reduction especially among women and the youth? What is the future outlook for GLDC crops in terms of supply, demand, and prices? In which geographies will the research be most relevant?

Ex-ante Research Evaluation for Priority Setting One of the expert panel recommendations was to establish a clear set of priorities to guide GLDC research investments. Need for an ex-ante research evaluation to assess crop, thematic, and country priorities based on rigorous yield gap analyses, ex-ante impact analyses, and IRR/BCR projections. Conducted expert surveys involving crop-specific teams to gather information on yield gaps, promising lines of research to bridge the yield gaps, expected research and adoption lags, maximum adoption rates, and research costs. Used the economic surplus model to estimate the potential impacts of over 80 GLDC research and technology options in 8 research domains (=532 model runs).

Economic Surplus Model Closed economy Small open economy Supply Shift: Kt = (R/P0 ) At ∆ES = P0Q0Kt(1+0.5Zη) At= Amax 1+e−(αβt) ∆ES = PQ0Kt(1+0.5Ktε) Z=ΔP/P0

Priority Crops, Countries, and Traits GLDC research & technology options were ranked by research domain based on benefit-cost ratios (BCR) as measures of economic benefits per unit of investment. The results of the ex-ante evaluation were used to inform GLDC management’s decision on priority crops, countries, and traits. West Africa Crops Countries Traits BCR Sorghum Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso Early maturing varieties and hybrids with tolerance to drought; resistance to Striga; tolerance of stem borer/ midge 5-23 Groundnut Nigeria, Mali Drought-tolerant, short-duration, rosette and early- and late-leaf spot-resistant varieties 6-21 Soybean Nigeria Drought-tolerant, disease-resistant varieties 14-16 Cowpea Insect-resistant lines, drought-tolerant, low P-tolerant Striga-resistant and disease-resistant varieties 6-16 Pearl millet Nigeria, Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso Early-maturing, drought-tolerant, dual-purpose hybrid parents/cultivars with high and stable yields with disease resistance (downy mildew and blast) 6-14

Priority Crops, Countries, and Traits East & Southern Africa Crops Countries Traits BCR Sorghum Ethiopia, Sudan, Uganda Early maturing varieties/hybrids, tolerant to drought; resistant to Striga; tolerant of stem borer/midge 8-28 Pigeonpea Malawi Cleisto varieties, resistant to Fusarium wilt and Cercospora leaf spot, photo-insensitive, drought-tolerant, and intercropping-compatible varieties 6-15 Groundnut Malawi, Tanzania Drought-tolerant/resistant variety and short-duration varieties 5-14 Chickpea Ethiopia Varieties resistant to Ascochyta blight and Fusarium root rot and drought/heat-tolerant varieties 6-12 Soybean Zambia Drought-tolerant and disease-resistant varieties 8-9 Cowpea Mozambique Drought-tolerant varieties and insect-resistant lines 6-8 Finger millet Terminal drought-tolerant, blast, downy mildew and Striga resistant varieties 5 South Asia Crops Countries Traits BCR Chickpea India, Myanmar Varieties resistant to Fusarium root rot and Botrytis grey mold, herbicide/drought/heat tolerant varieties 9-17 Pigeonpea India Varieties resistant to Fusarium wilt and Cercospora leaf spot, and tolerant of pod borers, pod fly and pod bugs 5-16 Lentil Varieties tolerant of drought and herbicide and resistant to wilt, root rot and Stemphylium blight 5-15 Pearl millet Early-maturing, drought-tolerant and disease resistant (downy mildew and blast) hybrids 7-10 Groundnut Varieties resistant to foliar fungal disease, bud necrosis and soil-borne diseases 8-10 Finger millet Terminal drought tolerant and blast resistant varieties 4-6 Sorghum Varieties and hybrids that are early-maturing and tolerant of drought and stem borer/ midge 5

CoA 1.2: Value chains, markets, and drivers of adoption Study technology adoption drivers and constraints including the end-user’s demands for product and technology attributes for successful scaling of GLDC technologies. Analyze local, national, and international market demands for GLDC products and their characteristics. Assess the efficiency of input and output value chains to identify key constraints and opportunities along the chain for increased competitiveness in production, marketing and processing. Key research questions: What are the drivers of technology adoption and the underlying preferences affecting farmers and end-user demands for agricultural technologies and products and how can these be used in technology development and dissemination to enhance adoption? Which value chains offer potential for improving household incomes, nutrition, economic growth and social inclusion, and in which should GLDC invest in targeting?

CoA 1.3: Gender integration and social inclusion in the drylands Undertake strategic gender research to understand the participation of women and youth in GLDC value chains as well as in technology and support service delivery. Characterize the ‘youth in the drylands’ to understand who they are, who is staying in agriculture, and who is leaving agriculture – and to identify the GLDC value chains that offer employment and income opportunities for the youth in the drylands. Assess the role of ICT/digital agriculture in enhancing the participation of the youth in GLDC value chains. Key research questions: What and how do social/gender norms and power relations influence women’s participation, decision making and practices in the legumes and cereals systems? What are the core values, norms and practices that need to be taken into account when working with women on legumes and cereals innovations in the drylands? What opportunities exist to enhance gainful participation of the youth in cereals/legumes value chains? And what is the potential of ICT/Digital agriculture?

CoA 1.4: Enabling environments and scaling to accelerate impact Identify the enabling conditions and specific scaling approaches required to accelerate uptake and impacts of GLDC technologies. Assess and synthesize the impacts of GLDC technologies and interventions to support scaling up efforts. Identify key policy and institutional constraints impeding the development of GLDC value chains and the possible intervention options to make these value chains more inclusive and profitable. Key research questions: What are the enabling conditions and policy processes underlying largescale adoption of new technologies and how can these be promoted to support scaling-up efforts? What are the policy & institutional constraints impeding the development of GLDC value chains in the drylands and what are the possible interventions to address these? What are the economic, social, and environmental impacts of GLDC technologies?

CoA 1.4: Enabling environments and scaling to accelerate impact Options Market demand & access Policy & institutional context Farming, seed & extension systems Gender & inclusion analysis Stakeholder mapping & consultation Economic analysis Insights from other CoAs/FPs Tools, approaches & learning for scaling GLDC technologies Example: Rapid Assessment of Scaling Context  Project Development (Framework under development)

Priority Activities for 2018 Wider expert consultations to validate and refine the pre-proposal priority assessment results based on a shared understanding and realistic assessment of the prospects for development and dissemination of the different technologies across regions. Introduce a poverty dimension into GLDC research priority setting by estimating the number of poor people who will be lifted out of poverty through each of the GLDC research and technology options identified. Assess potential impacts of quality improvement research options for nutrition/health, market demand, livestock feed, and the environment that generate economic benefits mainly through demand shifts.

Thank you Demand-driven Innovation for the Drylands www.gldc.cgiar.org In partnership with CGIAR Centers, public and private organizations, governments, and farmers worldwide www.gldc.cgiar.org Thank you