Translating Portfolio Analysis to a Cost Effectiveness Frontier

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Presentation transcript:

Translating Portfolio Analysis to a Cost Effectiveness Frontier Ken Corum, NW Power and Conservation Council

Cost Effectiveness of DR “Compare cost of DR to cost avoided by DR” Comprehensive evaluation of avoided cost entire power system over time uncertainty For practical guidance, a simple rule approximating comprehensive method 2

Council’s Portfolio Model Uncertainties translated into 750 futures (20 years) Resources include: natural gas conventional & advanced coal wind conservation demand response 1000-4000 portfolios tested against futures Uncertainties include electricity and gas prices, weather, precipitation (important since hydrolectric power system’s output depends on total precipitation). 3

Council’s Portfolio Model Each portfolio => 750 NPVs of costs distribution w/ average cost, risk Model simulates the development and operation of a resource portfolio through a standard set of 750 futures. Resources in each portfolio are sited and licensed, but model simulates build or hold decisions for each resource. 4

Light blue points are “efficient frontier” since they have no other points that are lower in both cost and risk (lower and to left). 5

6 Three efficient frontiers based on 3 levels of DR At risk = $37B, savings = $346M w/ full DR, $213M w/ 500MW At risk = $36.5B, savings = 324M, $176M At risk = $36.2B, savings = $421M, $143M 6

7

Work in Progress More variety in DR programs Limits on DR calls Can we capture potential benefits of DR in ancillary services? 8

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