M. Kuznetsova & CCMC Team Addressing the need for coordinated assessment, development and deployment of space weather prediction capabilities M. Kuznetsova & CCMC Team ESWW 2017  Working Together   Call to Actions 

Key Elements of Space Weather Predictive Capabilities System Research understanding assessment (state-of-the-art & opportunities) Observations Information, Input to models ground truth for model validation Modeling specifications, forecasting, research Dissemination Operations  Working Together 

Expanding community of models that need to work together CCMC Assets & Services: WSA-ENLIL TIE-GCM SAMI-3 LFM-TING GUMICS WSA-ENLIL+Cone GMAT SAM LFM-MIX GIC WSA-ENLIL+EPREM CTIPe IDA4D AWSoM-R+EEGGL+CME OpenGGCM+CTIM WSA-ENLIL+SEPMOD USU-GAIM AWSoM EEGGL SWMF+RCM+deltaB RCM REleASE SWACI-TEC SWMF+RCM Fok.CIMI PFSS.Petrie PREDICCS SWMF+RCM+RBE ABBYNormal PFSS.Macneice Fok.RBE EXO Solar Wind SWMF+CRCM PFSS.Luhmann ANMHD UPOS RB NRLMSISE EMMREM LFM-MIX-TIEGCM MAG4 AE-8/AP-8 GITM UMASEP LANLstar CORHEL WINDMI AE-9/AP-9 PBMOD Tsyganenko IGRF ASAP ASSA AMOS Heltomo SMEI VERB TRIPL-DA Community of Models, Modelers and Users A number of modeling Chains and framework. Many models and modeling chains developed by large teams with broad involvement of distributed community. Weigel-deltaB Weimer IE WSA Heltomo IPS PS VP NLFFF SRPM Apex Weimer-deltaB BRYNTRN AACGM Ovation Prime MAGIC SNB3GEO IRI JB2008 DBM AMPS DTM GCR BON NOVICE SWMF.SH IMPACT NAIRAS CARI-7 COSGROVE-PF DIPS Inner Magnetosphere Ionosphere/Thermosphere Corona Heliosphere Magnetosphere

Key challenges identified in the ILWS-COSPAR Space Weather Roadmap [Schrijver et al., 2015] Transformation to effectively functioning, information-sharing, global space weather community. Fast responses to new scientific advances and societal requirements in the rapidly growing field of space weather. brings together international scientific and operational communities and impacted societal groups.  Call to Actions 

Transition, Balances, Coordination Challenges in Transition, Balances, Coordination Research – Operations Fundamental Research - Applied Research Heliophysics – Meteorology Partnership – Dependency Sharing - Competition Bottom-up – Top-down Emerging Community Initiatives – Funding Opportunities

International Partnership Concept Core Core Independent Joint Mutually beneficial joint activities to supplement core independent capabilities Core Independent Capabilities Core Independent Capabilities Joint Initiatives Dynamic International Working Teams Joint network of web-based services & interactive archives Add-on capabilities enabled by joint initiatives Add-on capabilities enabled by joint initiatives WIN WIN

Interlinked Services CCMC / iSWA – SPENVIS CCMC Real-Time System iSWA Automated Request CCMC Real-Time System Results Automated Request Results Results Results iSWA SSA SWE Portal

Searchable Simulation Archive Visualization & Downloads Opportunity for Interlinked Services CCMC/RoR – Helio ESC/VSWMC 1000s CPUs Peta-Bytes of Storage Searchable Simulation Archive (>20,000 runs) > 100 Models Online Visualization & Downloads ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov Requests CCMC Runs-on-Request Results Requests Results Execution Results ESA Heliosphere ESC Virtual SW Modeling Center

for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment, Improvement, Deployment Need for a Hub for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment, Improvement, Deployment Research Operations 2 O2R R2O vs a bridge for R2O transition

Key Elements of Space Weather Capabilities A Hub Interconnecting Key Elements of Space Weather Capabilities Targeting Improvements of Space Weather Services Addressing a need to bring together scientists, application developers, mission specialists, infrastructure engineers, and end-users of space weather services. SERVICES With H. Opgenoorth, I. Mann

National / Regional Agencies National / Regional Agencies Roadmaps Reports Policies Action Plans International SW Stakeholders Regional / National Agencies National / Regional Agencies National / Regional Agencies Regional / International Coordination Groups National / Regional Agencies TOP-DOWN TOP-DOWN encouragement opportunities support coordination facilitation recommendations guidelines BOTTOM-UP BOTTOM-UP Feedback, updates & input for strategic planning, global hub for implementation of Action Plans, new leads & ideas for improvements, agile implementation, assessment and dissemination International SW Action Teams

ionosphere-atmosphere (geospace) system Sun-to-Impact I-SWAT Space weather origins at the Sun Propagation of transient through evolving ambient Coupled magnetosphere Primary user groups & Impacts Electric power systems, GICs Positioning / Navigation / Communication (Aero)space assets - Satellite / debries drag - Satellite / aviation funcitions, - Astronauts health Solar output Input to heliosphere and geospace S1. Long-term solar variability. Prediction of solar cycles. S2. Solar magnetic field & heating. Ambient magnetized solar wind and spectral irradiance. S3. Solar eruptions: CMEs, flares, enhanced electromagnetic emissions and high energy particle fluxes. heliosphere Input to geospace H1. Time of CME arrival. Plasma parameters and magnetic field structure within CME approaching geospace. H2. SEP and GCR in heliosphere. ionosphere-atmosphere (geospace) system response to solar drivers G1. Geomagnetic environment. G2. Ionosphere / atmosphere variability. G3. Near-Earth radiation & plasma environment.

Examples of I-SWAT Tasks REVIEW Review of Roadmap recommendations. Inventory of available resources and on-going efforts. EVALUATION Evaluation of data and model output quality, prediction accuracy and reliability, and application usability. Tracking progress against established metrics. Identification of opportunities for improvements, including feasibility analysis. Prototyping for future operational capabilities (e.g., community ensemble forecasting, collaborative distributed modeling, coordinated observations). IMPROVEMENT Agile improvement of space environment specification and forecasting capabilities based on latest advances in understanding, observations and modeling. Analyses of climatology and past and future extremes. Refinement of physics-based indices and activity scales. Improvement of archives for anomaly analysis. Improvement of data utilization. COORDINATED FEEDBACK, UPDATES, INPUTS E.g., on policies, mission planning, periodic COSPAR ILWS Roadmap updates.

Townhall Meeting Thursday November 30, 13:00-14:00, Room: Stijnen ESF/ESSC European SWx Asessment and Consolidation Working Group, UN COPOUS Framework for international space weather services, COSPAR I-SWAT (International Space Weather Action Teams) Take advantage of opportunities for in-person meetings at international conferences and workshops. Non-bureaucratic, free as possible from administrative and hierarchical constraints. Committed to active participation in community-wide projects. advantage of opportunities for in-person meetings at international conferences and workshops.

I-SWAT Goals Provide a global hub for coordinated space weather community efforts toward the realization of the COSPAR-ILWS Roadmap goals. Create an agile collaborative working environment that encourage active participation, emergence of new leads and innovative ideas. Enable timely incorporation of new data and latest scientific findings with potential to improve space weather services, into models, tools and forecasting techniques. Serve as a channel for inputs, updates and feedback from communities to COSPAR PSW leads, partnering organizations, and policy making agencies. Facilitate a bottom-up community engagement in regular Roadmap updates based on latest scientific advances and evolving user needs. INITIATIVES  NOVELTY  EFFICIENCY  MULTI-DISCIPLINARY  AGILITY  COLLABORATIVE ENVIRONMENT