World Population Phases, Transitions, and Contemporary Crisis

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Presentation transcript:

World Population Phases, Transitions, and Contemporary Crisis White, Makov, Korotayev © 2005

What is power-law growth? Hypothetical example dN/dt = a0Nr=2

1 – 1832 CE, with 95% confidence intervals (Komori 1992) Premodern example dN/dt = a0Nr=2 Figure 2. Power-Law Growth Pattern for Hawaiian Population Estimates, 1 – 1832 CE, with 95% confidence intervals (Komori 1992)

Other possibilities for dN/dt = a0Nr=?

World population over 1M years dN/dt = a0Nr=2 World population over 1M years

World population over 1M years

China dN/dt = a0Nr=2

Time to criticality

Deviation from trend line (absolute)

Deviation from trend line (relative)

Deviation from political trend line

Fit of political - population phases

Population phases and transitions

Power law from 1,000,000 yrs ago

Discuss implications Economic Political Age Distribution World-System Social Organization Cognition