program framework Articulate program goals Develop system level model for goal attainment Assess current management efforts – identify gaps Develop management strategy Develop monitoring program Assess performance Manage adaptively

program framework Articulate program goals explicit unambiguous measurable realistic attainable

program framework Articulate program goals Describe factors influencing goal attainment Assess current management efforts – identify gaps Develop management strategy Develop monitoring program Assess performance Manage adaptively

program framework Describe factors influencing goal attainment what has to be managed to attain goal simple model of system can be improved as knowledge/time permit

Success implementing EBM requires a theory of change What must be done to produce the necessary and desired outcomes? Adequately articulated, the theory of change: organizes action enables monitoring facilitates adaptive management

Logic models

monitoring to reduce uncertainty Validating assumptions about system behavior

Goal modeling identification of factors potentially affecting attainment biological factors fauna flora microorganisms physical factors structure hydrology temperature chemical factors salinity pH nutrients toxics human factors use objectives modification of system knowledge

program framework Articulate program goals Develop system level model for goal attainment Assess current management efforts – identify gaps Develop management strategy Develop monitoring program Assess performance Manage adaptively

program framework Assess current management efforts – identify gaps simple initial assessment critical factors not currently managed opportunities for coordination Develop management strategy explicit, measurable intervention clear, observable outcome

program framework Articulate program goals Develop system level model for goal attainment Assess current management efforts – identify gaps Develop management strategy Develop monitoring program Assess performance Manage adaptively

program framework Develop monitoring program monitoring reflects management priorities monitoring designed to reduce uncertainty in system model indicators link condition and management efforts monitoring data is appropriate to decision thresholds for adaptive management

Adaptive management Monitoring must uncertainties Monitoring must Document conditions Status and trends Document interventions Track implementation of management strategies Reduce uncertainty Validate assumptions about system behavior model BMP performance stressor trajectories system behavior

program framework Articulate program goals Develop system level model for goal attainment Assess current management efforts – identify gaps Develop management strategy Develop monitoring program Assess performance Manage adaptively

Establishing performance expectations response time time response time response

Establishing performance expectations response Identifying uncertainty time time response time response

program framework Articulate program goals Develop system level model for goal attainment Assess current management efforts – identify gaps Develop management strategy Develop monitoring program Assess performance Manage adaptively

program framework articulate program goals refine system level model for goal attainment re-assess current management efforts – identify gaps revise management strategy adjust monitoring program assess performance manage adaptively