Global Climate Modelling Department “Physical Climate System” Mojib Latif, Erich Roeckner and Uwe Mikolajewicz.

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Presentation transcript:

Global Climate Modelling Department “Physical Climate System” Mojib Latif, Erich Roeckner and Uwe Mikolajewicz

Outline Scientific questions Modelling philosophy MPI global climate models Variability and predictability of the THC Quasi-equilibrium response to insolation changes Outlook

Scientific questions (I) Internal climate variability What are the mechanisms of climate variations on seasonal to interdecadal timescales? How predictable are these variations?

Scientific questions (II) Forced climate variability Can we understand the paleo-climatic record? What is the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing? extreme events stability of the THC

Modelling philosophy The long-term goal is the development of a hierarchy of Earth System Models. A high-resolution model for simulations up to a few hundred years. A medium-resolution model for simulations up to a few thousand years. A coarse-resolution Earth System Model for simulations of glacial/interglacial cycles.

MPI global climate models (I) Seasonal to interdecadal timescales, 20th and 21st century integrations Current workhorse: ECHAM5(T42), MPI-OM1 (C-HOPE, Marsland et al. 2002) incl. dynamic/thermodynamic sea ice model, no flux adjustments. Under development: substantial increase in resolution for shorter integrations (T106 for atmosphere, eddy-permitting in the ocean). Inclusion of biogeochemistry

MPI global climate models (II) Paleo-climatic studies Current workhorse: ECHAM3(T21), LSG-1 incl. thermodynamic sea ice model, with flux adjustments Under development: ECHAM5(T21), LSG-2 incl. dynamic/thermodynamic sea ice model, HAMOCC-4, LPJ, SICOPOLIS

Simulation of North Atlantic ocean heat transport with ECHAM5/MPI-OM-1

Simulation of North Atlantic overturning ECHAM5/MPI-OM-1

Simulation of North Atlantic multi-decadal variability

THC/SST relationship

Greenhouse gas (1%) integrations

Externally forced variability 6K simulation 6K Global temperature control North Atlantic SST North Atlantic SSS North Atlantic overturning

6K simulation surface temperature change

6K simulation precipitation change

Outlook Interactions between the physical climate system and the biogeochemical cycles, e.g. the carbon cycle Dynamics of glacial/interglacial transitions New dynamical core Consistency of tracer advection and dynamics Regionally enhanced resolution Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral grid