Frans Schilder Johan Conijn

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Presentation transcript:

Frans Schilder Johan Conijn Subsidies in the Dutch Housing Market A study into the distortionary effect of subsidies on tenure choice and mobility Frans Schilder Johan Conijn

Introduction Three key issues in Dutch housing market - Very low elasticity of supply - Large share of social landlords - Immensely subsidized Key stats: - 55 % owner-occupied; 45% rental - 95 % rental housing regulated - 75 % rental sector owned by housing associations

Introduction (2) Strongly dysfunctional (Conijn, 2006): Little construction Difficult entry for starting households Little mobility Often mentioned in relation to “the gap”

“The Gap” Gap between tax value and exploitation value Tax value

“The Gap” (2) Dissected in Conijn and Schilder (2009) Fiscal treatment owner-occupied sector Rent level Expenditures on maintenance Expenditures on management Residual value Length of exploitation period Total size: €14 bln, per year, per sector

Theme of this paper What is the effect of subsidization on: Tenure choice Desired mobility Realized mobility

Tenure choice Logit model: PO = f(yj, UCO,j/UCR,j, cj) Current market situation Derived market situation without subsidies PO = f(yj, UCO,j/UCR,j, cj)

Tenure choice (2)

Tenure choice (3)

Desired mobility Effect implicit subsidy of renters on their desire to move Logit model: Dj = f(ISj , Hj , cj)

Desired mobility (2) Effect subsidy (%) Province Groningen -2,33 Effect subsidy (%) Province Groningen -2,33 Friesland -2,44 Drenthe -3,03 Overijssel -3,78 Flevoland -2,97 Gelderland -5,05 Utrecht -5,46 Noord-Holland -6,08 Zuid-Holland -3,85 Zeeland -2,55 Noord-Brabant -5,19 Limburg -3,36 Netherlands -4,51

Desired mobility (3)

Realized mobility Vacancy chain analysis

Realized mobility (2)

Realized mobility (3)

Realized mobility (4) Impact of subsidies on vacancy chains Cli = f (UCO i / UCR i , UCi , WUCi , ISi , FEi , HAi , yi , ci)

Realized mobility (5)

Realized mobility (6)

Conclusion Abundance of subsidies Strong effect on tenure choice Significant impact on residential mobility