Evaluation methods for SDG indicators The 2017 Belgian Assessment Eurostat Sustainable Development and Europe 2020 Indicators Working Group 13-14 March 2018 Evaluation methods for SDG indicators The 2017 Belgian Assessment Johan Pauwels Federal Planning Bureau Task Force on Sustainable Development

trend assessment towards SDGs Building blocks indicators r e s u l t s communication trend assessment towards SDGs objectives projections calculations

Indicators and data Sustainable Development Indicators (SDIs) Data 1997 SD Act: SDI role in reporting 2012 dedicated website, with Eurostat project grant 2017 selection of two SDIs per SDG for Voluntary National Review to UN by Interfederal Statistical Institute Data time series 1990/2000-2016 Statbel, Eurostat, other official sources

Objectives Adopted by policy makers UN 2015: 17 SDGs with 169 ‘targets’ for 2030 Two types of objectives targets: well-defined, quantified, time-bound with desired direction only Other commitments Long-term Vision for Sustainable Development (2013) Europe 2020 Strategy and National Reform Programme

Projections To go beyond observed 2000-2016 data Existing in-depth research Expected SDI evolution taking into account other related data assuming unchanged policy Relevant Federal Planning Bureau projections energy, climate, transport, poverty and inequality available for 7 SDIs

Calculations Continue trend beyond observed 2000-2016 data Method for target cases trend calculation with Hodrick-Prescott method extrapolation until 2030 Method for desired direction only cases statistical significance of past changes Spearman rank correlation

Trend assessment towards SDGs |1 Belgium on path to reach SDGs by 2030? Answer based on development over past 16 years application of quantitative rules NOT evaluation of sustainability of current situation position compared with other countries ambition level of objectives

Trend assessment towards SDGs |2 objective = SDG target 17 desired direction 34 SDI with observed data 2 5 SDI projection 7 2000 2030 2015 SDI significant change? 15 SDI calculated trend 12 SDI extrapolation

Results + – Compare proj./calc. outcomes with objectives 3 possible results + – target favourable = reached or near (10% margin) unfavourable = not reached (distance > 10%) impossible = erratic data direction favourable = right proj. | calc. significant unfavourable = wrong proj. | calc. significant undetermined = proj. stable | calc. not significant or impossible (lack of data)

Example 1 SDI with target and projection – Risk of poverty or social exclusion 21.1 16.36 10.55

Example 2 SDI with target and trend extrapolation – Official development assistance 0.7 0.49 0.42

Example 3 SDI with direction and correlation calc. Water consumption + 70.1 60.1

2017 SDI trend assessment: aggregated results overall and by type of objective Result Trend assessment Total target direction favourable 5 7 12 impossible undetermined 1 8 unfavourable 11 3 14 17 34 + –

2017 SDI trend assessment: detailed results – 01 - Risk of poverty or social exclusion 10.55 02 - Over-indebtedness of households  03 - Adult obesity  04 - Organic agriculture area  05 - Premature deaths due to chronic diseases 68.6 06 - Daily smokers 13.1 07 - Early school leavers 0 08 - Lifelong learning  09 - Gender pay gap 0 10 - Female members of parliament 50 – + – – – – +

+ + + – + – + + + – – 11 - Nitrates in river water  12 - Water consumption  13 - Renewable energy 18 14 - Energy intensity 79.9 15 - Unemployment rate  16 - Youth not in employment, education or training  17 - Passenger transport by car 65 18 - Research and development 3 19 - Gini index  20 - Risk of poverty  21 - Inadequate dwelling  22 - Exposure to particulate matter 10 + + – + – + + + – –

+ – + + – – – 23 - Domestic material consumption  23 - Domestic material consumption  24 - Municipal waste  25 - Natural disasters victims 1.97 26 - Greenhouse gas emissions non-ETS 51.8 27 - Sustainable fisheries 100 28 - Natura 2000 protected marine area 10 29 - Natura 2000 protected land area  30 - Farmland birds population  31 - Security feeling in public space  32 - Trust in institutions  33 - Official development assistance 0.7 34 - ODA to least developed countries 50 + – + + – – –

Communication of results |1 SD Report 2017 French Dutch Press release | Press conference | Presentations

Communication of results |2 Detailed results and quick overview one-page table with 34 SDIs organized by SDG 34 small graphs on six pages in Report Aggregated results overall and by type of objective not at SDG level with only 34 SDIs comment section in Report organized by 5 Ps People - Planet - Prosperity - Peace - Partnership

Communication of results |3 SDI description definition and objective UN target and UN indicator Website: assessment and much more data, including breakdowns and international comparison Messages and policy recommendations many SDIs moving in direction of objectives efforts and policy changes needed to reach targets need for translation of objectives into targets

Next steps Extend SDI set Classify SDIs by 5 Ps? 3 SD dimensions? … Select SDIs with target Strengthen link with 63 beyond GDP indicators Classify SDIs by 5 Ps? 3 SD dimensions? … Align with internat. SDG indicator developments Reinforce communication Use distance to target path method?

Thank you for your attention Visit www.indicators.be Contact > Task Force on Sustainable Development Federal Planning Bureau - Brussels, Belgium > indicators@plan.be > Johan Pauwels, pj@plan.be