Simulation of a shared fleet of autonomous cars in Canberra Kent Fitch Project Computing Pty Ltd 6th Australian ITS Summit August 2018

Key Result Company The most economical and efficient shared AV fleet will require journeys to be shared during peak periods.

35km 25km Only 400k people, but they are spread thinly

Tidal flows dominate periods of peak demand Morning ...

Tidal flows dominate periods of peak demand ... Afternoon

Convenience High Uptake Model Cost Service requirements for Door-to-Door 24x7 On demand (no booking) > 98% within 1 minute > 99.5% within 3 mins No slower, end-to-end, than private car Cost Cheaper than private car Service requirements for High Uptake Model 750,000 weekday journeys

Vehicle Base Model Cost: $40,000 Spares: additional 5% Life: 3 years zero residual value Range: 200 km usable Maintenance + cleaning: $2000pa + 2.5c/km Efficiency: 6km/kWHr

Charging stations Base Model Cost: $15,000 Life: 10 years zero residual value Rate: 75kW, 80% efficient (meter to motor) Maintenance + rent: $3000pa Electricity: 20c/kWHr

All capital is borrowed at 10%pa Base Model Financing All capital is borrowed at 10%pa $

Tariff Peak Weekdays 7-9am, 3-6pm 40c flagfall + 25c/km Base Model Off peak 20c flagfall + 25c/km Shared journeys 6-10am, 3-7pm Flagfall $0.40 Trip $2.75 Extras $0.00

23,000 Service outcome for 1,500 High Uptake Model 2.5GWHr Cars 23,000 (plus 5% spares) Charging stations 1,500 Energy 2.5GWHr per day Surplus after financing $75 million per year Service outcome for High Uptake Model 750,000 weekday journeys

57% Service outcome for High Uptake Model 22% km driven Cars in passenger use 57% over 24 hours Dead running (transfers) 22% km driven Ratio of total km travelled to passenger service km 1.15 Service outcome for High Uptake Model 750,000 weekday journeys

Passenger wait times Minutes <= 1 98.3% 1 - 2 1.5% 2 - 3 0.14% 3 - 4 0.04% 4 - 5 0.01% 5 - 10 Maximum wait 7 minutes % journeys with wait > 1 minute 1.7% % journeys with wait > 3 minutes 0.06%

Financial summary, one vehicle, weekday Revenue $ Expenses $ Fares 103 Capital & interest 44 Power & charger 22 Rego/insurance/comms/admin 6 Maintenance 12 84 Weekday surplus: $19 per vehicle Weekend-day loss: $12 per vehicle Annual surplus: ~$3400 per vehicle

But what about congestion?

2.1 most popular (congested) routes 1.8 - 2.0 to popular destinations Congestion Now 1.1 travellers/car 2.1 most popular (congested) routes 1.8 - 2.0 to popular destinations 1.5 network average Simulation during peak

Congestion Q. But don’t the extra vehicle km travelled due to unoccupied transfers increase congestion? A. No - journeys are unoccupied only in inverse proportion to demand for travel along that route. Unshared private vehicles Shared AV fleet

Shared journeys drive a virtuous chain... Better, cheaper service Higher uptake Faster response Higher utilisation Lower costs Less congestion Positive feedback Efficiency increases as average occupancy rises during peaks Vehicles required increases slower than number of passengers

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