Measuring Census Coverage Post Enumeration Survey Directorate of Surveys Post Enumeration Survey Measuring Census Coverage Post Enumeration Survey The 2000 PES and 2010 project Paraguay, 3-7 August, 2009

República Federativa do Brasil Acronym: BR Federal Capital: Brasília Population in 2009: 191,480,630 Men: 93,962,767 Women: 97,517,863 Area: 8,514,876 km2 Density of population: 22.48 inhab/km2

Why do we evaluate Census? Census does not count every household or person In Brazil in 2000, we estimated that around 9 million persons (5,52%) were not counted Over/Undercount causes bias in estimates and measuring them helps users to better use the data. Not have any measure of coverage quality may affect the credibility of Census

IBGE does not adjust Census results based on the PES Why do we do PES? To improve the necessary sources for indirect methods is more difficult and costly The PES allows to identify kinds and level of coverage errors and helps to know where to improve more. Training? Cartography ? Supervision? IBGE does not adjust Census results based on the PES

What we calculated through the PES Estimate undercount of dwellings and persons Estimate overcount of dwellings and persons Calculate coverage rates – gross and net Brazil, Region, State, Urban/Rural, Age(range)

2000 Census PES Independence of PES from the Census Independent sample frame (from the EA file) Different team for data collection Data collection started after finishing Census Confidentiality on PES sample areas

PES does not cover collective dwellings 2000 Census PES Scope Private dwellings and persons living in private dwellings PES does not cover collective dwellings National coverage Rural and urban areas (except rural of the North region) All kind of enumeration areas including favelas

68% confidence level for 0,2 error 2000 Census PES Sampling Size 1,356 Enumeration Areas 301,230 dwellings 1,168,494 persons (0,7%) 68% confidence level for 0,2 error Two-stage sampling 1st stage - selection of enumeration areas in the “States” 26 states and 1 DF (Federal District) 2nd stage - 10% of the dwellings in each EA

2000 Census PES Questions Dwelling (all EA) Full address (street, type, number, neighbourhood) Responsible person name Total of persons living in Persons (10% sample) Name, sex, age, relationship in the household, if lived in at census date

2000 Census PES Data collection Starting October 2000 and finishing February 2001 1,356 enumerators, 319 supervisor and 27 Coordinators Matching e Reconciliation Clerical matching (2 stages: dwelling and person) 10% in average was sent to reconciliation Both done by the same technicians The two operations took around 3 months

2000 Census PES Estimation Dual System (DSE) a found in the Census and PES b found in the PES c found in the Census d NOT found neither in the Census nor in the PES t assumed to be population

2000 Census PES Some results Net undercount rate for dwellings in 2000 Census, Brazil and Regions * Does not include rural area ** Does not include rural area of North region

2000 Census PES Some results Net undercount rate for persons in 2000 Census, Brazil and Regions * Does not include rural area ** Does not include rural area of North region

What’s new for 2010 Instead of clerical only Bigger sample Around 4,000 EA Confidence level of 68% Error 0,10 Include rural area of North region Sampling PPS instead of random Automatic matching Instead of clerical only

Where we are on the automatic matching Methodology Study of methodologies and related computational methods System Conducted studies on different possibilities - Data Quality (SAS), Quality Stage (IBM), among others Testing FEBRL

Thanks