Working Beyond Boundaries — SPEAKER — MEGHAN SITTLER Research and Outreach Specialist National Drought Mitigation Center Lincoln, NE

National Drought Mitigation Center Risk Management Beyond Boundaries Meghan Sittler National Drought Mitigation Center

We all have seen the pictures of massive dust storms, drifts of topsoil and other decimation that was typical throughout much of the country during the 1930’s. Fewer of us, see the dust storms that can still occur today such as this one in Kansas in 2004. We see the less dramatic impacts of drought on agriculture. We see the dramatic impact of wildfire on forests, rangeland and even urban areas. We witness the impacts of stressed, depleted water supplies for people throughout the west And the past several years, those huge water supply crises moving beyond just the “west’s problem” to the southeast United States. As our population continues to grow and continues to urbanize we face many different and even increasingly complex resource questions. This trend will undoubtedly continue to intensify with our development patterns and with the new challenges posed by changes in climate.

Population Growth, meet Drought Boise, 46.1% Provo, 39.8% Denver, 30.4% Las Vegas, 83.3% Raleigh-Durham, 38.9% Phoenix, 45.3% Atlanta, 38.9% The NACD notes on its website the dramatic changes in population across the United States since 1990. The fastest growing regions of the United States between 1990-2000 were the West at 19.7% and the South at 17.3%. That trend is reflected by these figures of the increase in population in these select metropolitan areas. Dallas-Ft Worth, 29.3% Austin, 47.7% Orlando, 34.3% 2000 Census Figures—Percent change in population growth, 1990-2000

You’ll notice that during the years since the census, that drought has consistently impacted those same regions of the United States that experienced large population growth during the 1990s and early part of this decade. As I flip through the US Drought Monitor maps, you’ll notice the occurrence of severe to exceptional drought throughout the west, southeast and then throughout the Great Plains as well. This can be a powerful demonstration of the challenge I know is facing the members of the NACD—that resource management is no longer rural or agriculturally focused. Drought isn’t just about agricultural and rural America either.

Projected Drought Vulnerability in Utah With increased population comes increased demand on available water supplies. This figure looking at the vulnerability of Utah to drought as part of a study of the Colorado River Basin, indicates drought vulnerability due to increased demand placed on water supplies and climate change will increase right along with population increases. This figure can be used to illustrate vulnerability in other regions of the US, even those that are not experiencing as large of population increases such as Nebraska which has a relative wealth of water. IN that case, you could replace population growth with energy costs.

National Drought Mitigation Center Lessen societal vulnerability to drought by promoting planning and the adoption of appropriate risk management techniques. The mission of the NDMC is to reduce that vulnerability. We work with state and local governments, agencies, tribes, communities and individuals to educate people about the impacts and risks that drought poses and how best to plan for, monitor and respond to those impacts. Traditional focus has been on state-level planning but are now shifting to focus more on community or individual-levels. Also expanding amount of international work.

Activities Monitoring Planning & Mitigation Education & Outreach To achieve that mission we have projects and efforts related to monitoring, planning and education and outreach. All are essential and all require that we have a solid understanding of drought conditions, impacts and mitigation efforts on a local, regional, and national level. I’m going to highlight one of the tools that we have developed and are continuing to enhance, which addresses aspects of each of these program areas. And one that we hope we can use to connect with members of the NACD who are out working to address resource questions and challenges. Then I’ll hope to have a minute or two to very briefly show a few of the other projects we are currently developing or enhancing.

Assessing Impacts Droughtreporter.unl.edu The DIR is a catalog of current and historic drought impacts across the United States. DIR went on-line in July 2005 but records include impacts back to 1895. Reports are received now through an electronic clipping service, classified and summarized by NDMC staff. Reports also submitted by users of the tool. We are working to reach out to users and potential users to increase the number of reports submitted to the tool. Those of you here today that represent the network of conservation districts would be a invaluable network for us to receive input from. Droughtreporter.unl.edu

How Do People Use the Drought Impact Reporter? As a plea for help! Do depicted areas match “on the ground” conditions? Policymaking The DIR can be used for a variety of reasons by people of all backgrounds and focus. ranchers/farmers/business owners/homeowners do the DM and other monitoring or physical indicators reflect what is going on, on the ground Assessing disaster relief, examining risks and vulnerabilities, developing plans 4) Social science perspective: case studies & gauge of perceptions and saliency of drought to the public

In addition to a national view of impacts, the DIR displays impacts at the state level.

Selecting a county displays the number of impacts, the type of impact, the dates of the effects and the source of the impact report Clicking on the title of the impact opens a window with the summary Example: Paddlefish limits near Ft Peck Dam b/c of low water levels—from Jamestown Sun on May 7 of this year

We are in process of launching DIR 2 We are in process of launching DIR 2.0. With an improved look and improved functionality.

This will be the view of the state level This will be the view of the state level. Reports are shown by point of origin and by the category of impact. You’ll see the categories we have range from agriculture, to energy, fire, tourism & recreation, plants & wildlife and society to public health.

This is a view of the form that users complete when they are submitting a report to the DIR. It includes location, the categories as well as any monetary impact, a description of the impact, timeframe and then contact information.

We are also using the information about federal or state disaster declarations and relief programs that has been currently collected in the DIR to create a viewer that displays the locations, descriptions and eligibility information.

“Drought Ready Communities” Community-based drought awareness & planning Build upon: NWS’ “Storm Ready Communities” Groundwater Foundation’s “Groundwater Guardian” Another project that we are excitedly anticipating developing, is the Drought Ready Communities program. We hope to be able to pilot this program in geographically and demographically diverse communities to facilitate community-based drought awareness and drought planning. Communities that would successfully identify the steps needed for them to educate people about and plan for drought would be “certified” as “drought ready”. The program would build awareness of drought in a community and take communities through a preliminary drought planning process where they would: learn how to develop a local climate history assess community risks and vulnerabilities and potential drought impacts identify the necessary steps to develop a formalized drought plan Pilot process building upon SRC & GG (CLICK) Use listening sessions and workshops include NWS and other critical advisory entities develop a process and a downloadable kit communities can be certified as “drought ready”

Climate & Water Education Waters of Nebraska KIDs Activity book Climate Variability and Change Curriculum Proposed development of curriculum US focused initially Expand to Global Basics + mitigation/risk management Partnership with ProjectWET International and UNL Extension to develop a “Waters of Nebraska” KIDs Activity Book Have proposed and currently seeking funding partners for a Climate Variability & Change curriculum Related to this we are also in the beginning stages of developing drought and climate change curriculum with ProjectWET International.

Low Flow Projects Red River of the North (2007) Upper Missouri (2006) Upper Mississippi (2004) North Platte (2005) Upper Colorado (2008) Trinity River Basin (2007) Enhance existing Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Identify impacts of low river flows near NWS Forecast points Internet and literature reviews Interviews with local, state and federal water experts Establish low flow warning triggers Develop low flow river forecasts

Ranch Plan We are also working to take drought planning to an individual level through projects such as the “Ranch Drought Plan” Developing a web site that instructs ranchers on how to assess their local climate history, how drought can impact their operation and the practices they can put in place that best prepares them to offset the impacts of drought as well as some response and recovery actions.

One of the ways we are working to improve individual’s/communities ability to monitor current drought. Enhancing the DM show regional (CLICK) And state level (CLICK) with tables of the percent area in each drought category

VegDRI http://www.drought.unl.edu/vegdri/VegDRI_Main.htm And a final tool I’ll just briefly show is the Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI). VegDRI shows the relative drought stress on vegetation by using remote sensing information. It is currently on-line and operation for the 15 states highlighted here. It will be operational for the Western US this year and the Eastern US during 2009. http://www.drought.unl.edu/vegdri/VegDRI_Main.htm

Questions? http://drought.unl.edu msittler2@unl.edu Tracking and planning for drought is obviously not an easy process but education and planning are critical. I hope that by seeing the variety of projects we are currently developing you can see the level of commitment and passion we have for helping stakeholders at all levels understand and plan for drought. I know that conservation districts across the country are doing some innovative and pro-active projects to help communities and individuals within their districts better manage their resources under good and bad scenarios. I would invite you to share those with efforts with us. We very much look forward to working with all of you to meet the challenges posed to communities and the nation by drought.