Chapter 7: Population Futures

Different Assumptions -> Different Predictions -> 3 factors that affect population size Total fertility rate Life expectancy Migration Medium variant: Numerical population models projecting the most likely outcome. High variant: Highest likely projection. Low variant: Lowest likely projection. UN predicts 2025 world population to be between 8-10 billion, w/ medium variant of 9.2 billion.

Old Core to New Core Old Core: countries that are highly globalized for many years. W. Europe, Canada, US, Japan, Australia, etc. New Core: countries that have joined the core recently. Brazil, India, China, etc. Near Core: countries that are most globalized and closest to joining the core. Ecuador, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc. Far Periphery: countries that are least globalized and furthest from joining. Haiti, Ethiopia, DR of the Congo, etc.

Population Futures in the Old Core and Eastern Europe Implications of very low fertility rates will first be felt in Japan, Russia, and eastern European countries. Where is the Population of the Core Heading? NORTH AMERICA Pop. expected to rise until around 2025, then decline from approx. 400 million. to 300 million b/c of low fertility rates, esp. in Canada

Population Futures in the Old Core and Eastern Europe JAPAN, AUSTRALIA, & NEW ZEALAND Pop. expected to be stable, but expected to decline from 155 million to 100 million by 2100, mainly in Japan. EASTERN EUROPE Birth dearth: Population decline due to low total fertility rate, has already began with much of eastern Europe.

What Are the Implications of the Birth Dearth? 1. Family Structures Small families have become the norm, where “little emperors” become spoiled by many family members Elders will have no one to take care of them. DINKs, double income no kids couples, become more common and begin depending on friends or co-workers to fill the void left by small families

What Are the Implications of the Birth Dearth? 2. Aging Populations Next century is expected to be dominated by the elderly Pension plans: which provide income for retirees, will become more expensive and difficult to fund 3 solutions are possible Reducing pension benefits Increasing contributions to pensions Restricting pension eligibility based on income

What Are the Implications of the Birth Dearth? 2. Aging Populations Young workers may become less willing to lose more income to support pensions Future workforces are expected to be older as well. No experience in history has dealt with this.

What Are the Implications of the Birth Dearth? 3. Labour Shortages Workers over 55 years old has doubled from 1986-2005. Early retirements and longer time spent in school adds to labour shortages Retirement age may have to increase to 70 to support future economy.

What Are the Implications of the Birth Dearth? 3. Labour Shortages One solution is to attract labourers from other countries to fill the jobs locals do not want. Many developed countries are very anti-immigration, creating racial intolerance Foreign skilled workers may no longer want to come work in developed countries b/c of labour shortages in their own countries

What Are the Implications of the Birth Dearth? 4. Economic Effects Growth occurs for two reasons People become wealthier and demand more goods and services More people on the planet creates more demand for goods/services If population implosion occurs, a decline in consumers will lead to a decline in demand for goods/services, declining economic output

What Are the Implications of the Birth Dearth? 5. Shift in World Power Who will become new world powers when traditional powerhouses such as UK, France and Russia continue to face decline in population? Benefits of the Birth Dearth for the World Env. gain since fewer people means less use of resources, and less waste being produced

Why Is the Birth Dearth Happening? Most critically is the changing role of women in society Better educated, tend to have less children Careers outside the home Have longer careers Have more control of their lives Marry later, or stay single More likely to divorce Greater access to birth control People have greater control of their life decisions

Can We Prevent a Population Implosion? Pronatalist strategies: Ideas to encourage peopleto have more kids such as tax breaks, or cheaper daycares Designed to solve economic and social pressures felt by parents Popular politically but don’t guarantee higher birth fertility rates Another solution is to promote immigration

What Will Happen? No one knows how long birth dearth will last Even with this growing problem, it is crucial to not ignore future potential population booms

Homework Read p. 101-110 Answer #3, #4, #8, #10, p. 111 Assignment: #11, p. 111