Proposed Budget Fiscal Year 2018/2019 TPAC May 2018

HDR Historical Data Year Actual Trips HDR Projected % Difference FY13 2,677,808 2,617,060 -2.3% FY14 2,922,690 2,786,564 -4.7% FY15 3,157,388 3,182,653 0.8% FY16 3,351,612 3,437,249 2.6% FY17 3,422,166 3,458,984 1.1% *FY18 2,525,117 2,456,142 -2.7% FY18 3,605,156 FY19 - 3,439,702 The average of the six years pictured above is less than 1% - 0.87% to be exact. Given that each variable is assigned a central or median estimate and a range (i.e., a probability distribution) repre­senting an 80 percent confidence interval, based on historic observations, this model and its annual iterations have done a remarkable job of predicting ridership within a very narrow range. Unlike fixed route, where annual revenue hours are calculated based timetables and figures are known to the minute, in paratransit, we must work based on predictions of what demand will be up to 18 months in advance!!! *FY18 as of March 2018

Budget Process HDR Projections Metro Requirements Mid-Year Actuals Report March/April Metro Requirements MOU Review of draft budget Submit Revised Budget Submit Funding Request Letter Metro Budget Access Budget

Annual Passenger Growth For FY18 passenger growth should be 2.6% Or 4,625,794 passengers For FY19 passenger growth should be -1.1 or 4,574,728 passengers

Annual Trip Growth For FY18 the trips should be 3,586,893 trip growth percent is 2.6% For FY19 the trips should be 3499413 trip growth percent is -2.4

Certified Riders

Service Demand For FY18 the trips should be 3,586,893

Expenditures Paratransit Operations - $156.3 million 90.69% of Operating Expenditures $136.1 million - Purchased Transportation Services 4,574,728 Passengers (3,439,702 Trips) – 1.1% decrease Free Fare Program - $3.5 Million

Expenditures Eligibility Determination - $8.5 million 4.95% of Operating Expenses 41,460 In-Person Evaluations CTSA - $0.65 million 0.38% of Operating Expenses Administration - $6.9 million 3.98% of Operating Expenses 12.6 million to 8.5 reduction in eligibility

Budget Summary FY19 Budget % of Total Funding % of Operating Costs Paratransit Operations 156,262,116 84.79% 90.69% Eligibility Determination 8,520,475 4.62% 4.95% CTSA Function 650,376 0.35% 0.38% Administrative Expense 6,861,955 3.72% 3.98% Operating Expense 172,294,924 93.49% 100.0% Capital Expense 12,000,000 6.51% Total Operating and Capital Expenses 184,294,924

FY19/FY18 Comparison Department FY19 Budget FY18 % Paratransit Operations 156.26 146.7 6.5% Eligibility Determination 8.52 12.6 -32.4% CTSA Function 0.65 0.55 18.3% Administrative Expense 6.86 7.02 -2.3% Operating Expense 172.29 166.9 3.2% Capital Expenditures 12.00 10.13 18.5% Total Operating and Capital Expenses 184.29 177.03 4.1% *figures in millions

Cost Per Trip

Proposed Funding Sources OPERATING FUNDS FUNDING % PROPOSITION C - DISCRETIONARY FUNDS $ 87,083,127 47.3% SECTION 5316 JARC (Access to Work Grant #2) $ 557,870 0.3% SECTION 5310 - FTA STP FUNDING - (88.53% of Contracted Paratransit Operations) $ 66,000,000 35.8% Measure M Projects - Travel Training, WMR, Web Booking, Facilities Planning $ 1,500,000 0.8% SECTION 5317 NEW FREEDOM GRANT (Tether Strap and Marking Program) + OOS $ 266,810 0.1% INTEREST INCOME/MISCELLANEOUS $ 70,000 0.0% DISPOSAL OF RETIRED VEHICLES $ 350,000 0.2% PASSENGER FARES $ 9,573,737 5.2% Prepaid Insurance/Carryover $ 6,893,379 3.7% OPERATING REVENUES - SUBTOTAL 6/30/2019 $ 172,294,924 93.5%   CAPITAL FUNDS Section 5310 - MAP21/Toll Lane Grant - Funds to be carried over from FY18 to FY19 $ 12,000,000 6.5% CAPITAL EXPENDITURES SUBTOTAL: $ 12,000,000 TOTAL FUNDING $ 184,294,924 100.0%

Funding Sources - Historical

2019 Initiatives Short Term Long Term MediCal VoIP Online Reservations/applications Facilities AV Pilot Long Term Centralized Reservations Centralized Dispatch If you will remember, we negotiated rates for our contractors through FY18 to address the impact of minimum wage. However, we wanted to wait until after the receipt of proposals for the West/Central region to get a better gauge of pricing. If you will remember, we will have another increase to the minimum wage in July 2018 of $1.25 And another increase in July 2019 of $1.00 And a final increase of $0.75 in July of 2020. West/Central and Santa Clarita will not have to be negotiated as these two contracts will have been bid by the start of FY19. However, for the remainder, we will have to come back to board to address the financial impact. In order for Access to modernize, we will need to have a true co-location for IT. Co-location will set the foundation for migrating to VOIP – this will generate savings of approximately 1.5 to $2 million annually. Colocation also sets the stage for centralized reservations in the shorter term rather than years away. Then, if it makes sense we will move to centralized dispatch.

Other Issues Grants STP Funding Measure M Funding Parents With Disabilities Marking and Tethering Grant Access to Work STP Funding Current allocation is only through FY19 Measure M Funding Access has requested funding for FY19 of $1.5MM Strategic use of funds for Capital Acquisitions PWD Grant will expire in June 30, 2018. Still in discussions with LAUSD but potential for partnering is not in the near term MAT grant – Funding has run out. ATW – Operating funds are enough to cover another year to year and a half. We will again apply for this grant for both operating and capital. STP Funding Our STP allocation only runs through FY 2019. Metro will have to go their Board to seek Access’ STP allocations for future years beginning FY 2020 through FY 2024 – We are still in discussions with Metro to secure this funding for future years.

Real Estate Update