TCP & RCEP TRADE DEAL CONSEQUENCES PRESENTED BY: AARON HILL

FTA’S Before 2000 major Asian-Pacific countries were under WTO regulations.1 Are bilateral agreements that permit countries to circumvent WTO rules to make trading more efficient. Countries became frustrated by other methods in WTO bargaining so they switched to Free Trade Agreements.2 Source: Mega-Regional Trade Deals in the Asia-Pacific: Choosing Between the TPP and RCEP?, Jeffrey D. Wilson.

3 Main Reasons for Change from Bilateral Trade Agreements to FTA’s Firstly, many countries have turned to FTA’s to circumvent WTO regulations. Specific countries (particularly developed) interested in WTO Trade Issues. I.E. Intellectual property, investments etc.3 Forced coercion into defensive signing by others in order to avoid being “left out”. Mega-Regional Trade Deals in the Asia-Pacific: Choosing Between the TPP and RCEP? Jeffrey D. Wilson

FTA Agendas amongst ASEAN countries Certain countries use for Geo-political reasons and not in good-will. These countries use for signaling diplomatic purpose other than pure economic gains.4 ASEAN COUNTRIES: Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, Philippines, Malaysia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Brunei

FTA Proliferation Consequences Due to convoluted and questionable FTA’s Asian-Pacific trading is no longer “flat & unilateral”. It is now complicated and layered.5

ASEAN STATES South-East Asian governments have signed 19 FTA’s since 2000, majority of such with larger economic partners (Japan, Korea & Australia).6 Are generally responsible for shift to FTA’s in Asian - Pacific area. Imposed close to 0-5% tariff on all intra-ASEAN trade.

Problems with FTA’s For many FTA’s have failed to encourage trade liberalization or economic cooperation in Asia- Pacific area. “Noodle-Bowl” Problem. Different FTA’s impact people differently and further complicate that already difficult Asian-Pacific trade area.7

MEGA-REGIOANAL TRADE DEALS: TCP & RCEP TCP & RCEP radically different.8 These proposals are radically different and are considered “rivals”.

TCP Is led by the U.S. Is open to all willing Asian-Pacific countries. Costly

RCEP Seeks to alleviate “Noodle-Bowl” problem by simplification of FTA’s and trade cooperation in Asian-Pacific areas. Most countries more open to this option if it works as opposed to TCP. ASEAN countries might prefer RCEP. Helps retain there geo-political position in Asian Pacific Economy.9

SOURCES Mega-Regional Trade Deals in the Asia-Pacific: Choosing Between the TPP and RCEP?, Jeffrey D. Wilson.