The Economic Recovery in the South

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Presentation transcript:

The Economic Recovery in the South Jim Diffley US Regional Services Atlanta May 11, 2004

Regional Performance 2003/4 Job Growth March 2003 Trend New England -0.4% down Middle Atlantic 0.3 flat South Atlantic 1.2 up East South Central 0.4 flat West South Central 0.3 up East North Central -0.2 flat West North Central 0.3 flat Mountain 1.5 up Pacific 0.6 up HH survey discrepancy: US 1.65m+ Northeast, Mountain no discrepancy WNC,ESC,PAC HH growth w/o EE growth WSC,SAC HH gr >> EE gr ENC accounts for 600K of difference AND xrunn is up 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

Still a Jobless Recovery for Most States Feb to Mar 37 states + Yoy- 39 states VA, FL in top 5 in growth 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

Regional Performance 2003/4 Job Growth U Rate Income Growth March 2003 Trend 2003q4 Wages Maryland 0.9 up 4.0 4.8 3.8 Virginia 2.1 up 3.4 5.2 4.9 Kentucky 0.2 flat 5.5 4.3 2.7 Tennessee 0.8 flat 5.0 5.1 3.9 North Carolina 0.3 flat 5.2 4.1 2.1 South Carolina 0.8 up 6.7 4.4 2.3 Georgia 0.5 flat 3.6 4.8 2.6 Alabama 0.0 flat 5.9 4.1 2.3 Mississippi 0.3 flat 4.2 5.5 3.6 Florida 2.0 up 4.8 4.8 4.2 NC u rate 6.0 Feb MS 5.5 Sectors of note: PBS VA GOV VA GOV NC CON GA PBS FL CON FL – mention home prices up 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc. Comparative Job Performance 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc. Current Job Performance Maryland & Virginia Federal spending on defense and homeland security kept this region strong ( Northern VA to Baltimore ) Florida continued to lead in growth, tourism back state remains a strong attractor Georgia hit hard by telecomm appeared to regain, but employment survey erred (same in South Carolina, but opposite direction) Textile manufacturing the key drag Auto transplants the positive FL also gets defense , Scripps biotech research institute #1 eco dev 2004 Orlando, Tampa the fastest Orlando tourism back to pre 9-11 LQ still above 4 in region for textiles Nissan in TN; Honda, Mercedes in Alabama, auto suppliers throughout New corporate headquarters: Rubbermaid in Atlanta Louisiana-Pacific, Asurion in Nashville 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc. Comparative Job Performance: Manufacturing 1.03m Lost 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc. Comparative Job Performance: Professional and Business Services 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc. Comparative Job Performance: Unemployment Rate 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc. Comparative Income Performance 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc. Comparative Performance: Housing Starts 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc. Regional Forecast 2004 Job Growth Income New England 0.1% 3.5% Middle Atlantic 0.5 3.9 South Atlantic 1.5 4.5 East South Central 1.2 4.7 West South Central 0.5 4.3 East North Central -0.1 3.6 West North Central 0.8 4.6 Mountain 1.8 4.9 Pacific 1.2 4.6 HH survey discrepancy: US 1.65m+ Northeast, Mountain no discrepancy WNC,ESC,PAC HH growth w/o EE growth WSC,SAC HH gr >> EE gr ENC accounts for 600K of difference AND xrunn is up 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

Relative Performance (Jobs) 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

Relative Performance (Jobs) 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

Relative Performance (Jobs) 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc. Return to Peak (2000-2001) Employment Pennsylvania’s Decline was Relatively Mild 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

Employment Growth 2004-09 (Average Annual growth rate) 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

Personal Income Growth 2004-2009 (Average Annual Growth rate) 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

Recession and Recovery vs. 1990s 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc. Migration : 2001-2003 Top 10 2001 2002 2003 Florida 299,233 299,015 285,037 California 200,827 218,322 193,190 Texas 168,164 202,499 151,008 Arizona 98,247 106,354 95,466 Georgia 81,403 80,629 70,699 Nevada 71,118 59,357 58,219 North Carolina 61,499 65,622 56,495 Virginia 39,706 51,132 55,874 Washington 43,603 41,887 32,903 Maryland 33.042 40,884 30,470 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc. 2 2 2

Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc. Migration 2003/4 (000’s) 2003 total 2003 net internal 2002 net internal Maryland 30.5 8.3 16.3 DC -7.7 -11.8 -10.1 Virginia 55.9 28.4 18.6 Kentucky 14.0 8.6 4.3 Tennessee 30.0 19.9 14.6 North Carolina 56.5 25.1 28.1 South Carolina 26.7 19.7 16.7 Georgia 70.7 31.8 36.0 Alabama 9.6 4.5 -4.3 Mississippi -0.7 -2.6 -6.6 Florida 285.0 177.7 176.5 NC u rate 6.0 Feb MS 5.5 Sectors of note: PBS VA GOV VA GOV NC CON GA PBS FL CON FL – mention home prices up 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

Net Domestic In-Migration : 2002-2003 Top 10 2002 2003 Florida 176,531 177,734 Arizona 66,511 61,200 Nevada 43,005 44,718 Georgia 36,023 31,785 Virginia 18,581 28,412 North Carolina 28,098 25,100 Tennessee 14,579 19,942 South Carolina 16,683 19,735 Texas 41,174 15,988 Oregon 17,704 13,300 Washington 11,714 5,687 Maryland 16,263 8,266 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc. 2 2 2

Net Domestic Out-Migration : 2002-2003 Top 10 2002 2003 New York 170,041 170,828 California 108,595 94,861 Illinois 73,821 73,980 Massachusetts 28,074 45,099 New Jersey 23,759 33,225 Ohio 31,303 27,497 Michigan 26,728 25,583 District of Columbia 10,059 11,837 Utah 8,377 11,263 Colorado +11,608 10,611 Louisiana 18,004 10,605 Kansas 8,656 9,568 Pennsylvania -3,223 +7,841 Alabama -4,000 +4,000 Indiana -8,000 +1,000 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc. 2 2 2

Do Jobs Follow People or Do People Follow Jobs? YES 2002 Migration Muted by Business Cycle 2003 Flows: Northeast to South: 121,000 (319-199) Midwest to South: 75,000 (378-303) South to West: 71,000 (390-319) Demographics in the South: FL # 1 (17%) , WV #3 in over 65 share of state pop GA (9.5%) #49, VA #43 West to NE: 32 = 125-93 MidWest to West 35 = 235-200 NE to MW 9 = 71-62 11/13/201811/13/2018 Copyright © 2003 Global Insight, Inc.