War in the 21st Century Wars in the 20th century Wars in the 21st century Asymmetric war Social warfare

20th century wars were of three types Interstate, both world wars & bilateral Proxy, guerilla wars in/among super-power clients Intrastate, between factions contending over rule These tended to be state-based

But the role of the state in war is changing More wars are internal to states & societies

These appear to have become more pronounced after 1990: Why? End of the Cold War Stabilization of national borders Diffusion of low-cost armaments Changing internal incentive structures Changes in domestic social structures & relations Rise of “global” terrorism Interventions to impose a stable social order in warring societies

Two dominant types of 21st century war Asymmetric warfare Great power vs. weaker parties High tech vs. low tech No real front lines Social warfare Among social groups (ethnic, religious, etc.) Result of internal destabilization of social order Often pits dominant against subordinate groups Neighbors kill neighbors

America’s three wars are asymmetric U.S. relies on advanced technology in war Local opponent strikes at weak points in defense Cost of attacks are low; costs of defense are high High rates of casualties undermines morale Local opponent often at advantage in numbers Victory may require unacceptable levels of violence Local opponent can “wait out” high-tech force

GWOT is a type of asymmetric war There is no fixed field of battle Groups & communications difficult to “see” Advanced tech too destructive & costly High-visibility targets, low visibility attackers Attacks use/destroy existing infrastructure Decapitation may not destroy the “body”

This has also generated concern about “weapons of mass destruction” (WMDs) Deterrence through threat of mass death (strategy) Little tactical use for WMDs State possessors inhibited from using them Technology & materials not difficult to acquire Proliferation of WMDs raises fears of “irrational” use Concerns that WMDs may be used against urban centers

Social warfare tends to be struggle for power & domination within nat’l societies “Cultural” divisions of labor & rule found in many places Hierarchy & domination give access to power & resources Changes in subordinate group status viewed as “threat” Rising groups seek a share of the social product Political entrepreneurs can mobilize fears of clients Elimination of “threat” relies on verbal and actual violence (See chapter 31 in reader)

What causes neighbors to slaughter neighbors? What are the causes of intrastate wars? How do they happen, and why is history so important? If we understand them, can we prevent them? Are these the “wars of the future?”