Economic & Real Estate Outlook

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Recovery to Normalcy Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Presentation to Denver Metro REALTORS® Denver, Colorado November.

Advertisements

Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc. The U.S. Economic Outlook: How Much Fallout from The Housing Meltdown? Nariman Behravesh Chief Economist NAHB April.

The Economy and Its Impact on Education September 2006 Russ Thibeault Applied Economic Research.

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE: 2015 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK LAWRENCE YUN, PhD Chief Economist, Sr. VP National Association of REALTORS ® DONALD E. HUFFNER Managing.

Real Estate Trends and Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation at Associated Taxpayers of Idaho Boise,

Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Multi-Chamber Economic Outlook Luncheon Downers.

Housing Market Trends & Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation at NAR Annual Conference in San Diego.

U.S. Economic Outlook A Relatively Fast Manufacturing Growth Pace Amid Modest Gains In The Overall Economy Presented by: Daniel J. Meckstroth, Ph.D. Vice.

Economic Outlook for Consumers William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago University of Illinois Center for.

MODULE 0. Real Estate Markets & The Economy: An Empirical View.

Recovery to Normalcy Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Presentation at Bishop O’Connell High School Arlington, VA February.

GLOBAL RESEARCH AND CONSULTING THE ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE GARY BARAGONA DIRECTOR, RESEARCH & ANALYSIS JANUARY 2014.

©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential Slow and Steady Wins the Race: Housing Market Outlook David Stiff, Principal Economist,

CAR Commercial Forum Meeting – September 2013 (Chicago Metro) Robert Carrillo September2013.

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise College CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH Economic Outlook Sierra Vista, AZ.

Douglas Economic Outlook GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate.

Presentation at Mid-Fairfield Association of REALTORS® Norwalk, CT April 28, 2008 Presentation at Mid-Fairfield Association of REALTORS® Norwalk, CT April.

WASHINGTON STATEECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL Economic & Revenue Outlook Presented to Washington State National Institute of Government Procurement.

Omair Ali Antonio Alfonso Shehab Chowdhury Mohammad Zubair Ahsan Syed Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Fed Challenge 2011.

Economic Headwinds and Policy Concerns for New Home Construction Robert Dietz, Ph.D. Vice President Tax and Market Analysis NAHB Economics December 18,

Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation at NAR Annual Conference.

Office of the Chief Economist Multifamily Housing Outlook David F. Seiders Chief Economist October 25, 2006.

Presentation at NAR Leadership Summit Chicago, IL August 17, 2007 Presentation at NAR Leadership Summit Chicago, IL August 17, 2007 Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.

Economic and Housing Market Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation at NAR’s Midyear Economic Issues.

ECONOMIC AND HOUSING OUTLOOK David Crowe Chief Economist Blue Ridge Home Builders Association February 27, 2014.

Economic Outlook: Beyond the Recession ESICA Spring Conference The Tides Inn – Irvington, VA May 6, 2010 Ann Battle Macheras Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Real Estate Trends and Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation at Cedar Rapids Association of REALTORS®

Economic and Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist National Association of REALTORS®

Presentation to Greater Washington Commercial Association of REALTORS ® Tysons Corner, VA February 19, 2009 Presentation to Greater Washington Commercial.

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Home Improvement Spending James Gillula Managing Director, Consulting Services IHS Global Insight April 2014.

U.S. Property Market Update Mary Ludgin, PhD, Heitman Research September, 2007 There is a difference.

Marcus & Millichap Los Angeles Market Trends The Most Informative Overview of the Real Estate Market 2011.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: SHIFTING TO A HIGHER GEAR? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1.

Benson Economic Outlook GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate.

U.S. Housing Outlook Presented By: Stanley F. Duobinis, Ph.D. President Crystal Ball Economics, Inc.

Conference Call February 5, The Economy Federal funds rate remained at 5.25% GDP grew at 3.5% in Q406 – versus 2.0% in the 3rd quarter – 4.4% increase.

NABE OUTLOOK 2004Q1 SURVEY Presented to Silicon Valley Round Table MARCH 9, 2004 Duncan H. Meldrum NABE President & Chief Economist, Air Products.

Economic and Housing Market Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation at 2012 Resort and Second-Home Symposium.

Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS ® Presentation at NAR Annual Meetings.

Economic Outlook: Continued Growth: How Much Longer? San Rafael, CAOctober 29, 2015 Robert Eyler, Ph.D. CEO and Chief Economist Marin Economic Forum

Economic Outlook in Uncertain Times Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Presentation to IREM Chapter 77 In Reston, VA.

Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist National Association of REALTORS ® May 14, 2015 Washington, D.C.

2016 Multi-Family Forecast One Banker’s Perspective Tom Traficanti Executive Vice President Chief Credit Officer Heritage Bank of Nevada

Real Estate Trends and Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation at Provo Association of REALTORS® Provo,

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR INVESTORS AND BUSINESS DECISION MAKERS Dr. Mark G. Dotzour Chief Economist Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University College.

Real Estate Market Trends & Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation to Greater Boston Associations.

Economic and Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS® Presentation at Region 11 REALTORS® Conference.

Economic and Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS® Presentation at Arkansas REALTORS® Association.

Economic and Housing Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS® Presentation at Fayetteville Association of REALTORS®

2017 Outlook For the Financial Markets

Professor and Michael J. Horne Chair in Real Estate Studies

2017 Economic Outlook IREM Los Angeles

Economic and Real Estate Market Outlook

BETTER SOFT DATA WITH TRUMP, BUT HARDER DATA is lagging

Economic & Commercial Real Estate Finance Outlook

Economic and Housing Market Outlook

Economic Conditions and Outlook

Economic and Housing Outlook

Ed Sullivan Group VP, Chief Economist

Economic & Revenue Outlook

Economic and Housing Market

The Economy and Iowa Credit Unions

National Economy and Real Estate Market:

ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast

Cliff Brewis Vice President Operations Dodge Data & Analytics.

Ed Sullivan Chief Economist, Group VP

Economic Outlook Lake County Chamber of Commerce William Strauss

Economic Update December 2018 If you have any questions or comments,

Economic Outlook EconoSummit 2019 William Strauss Las Vegas, NV

Presentation transcript:

Economic & Real Estate Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS® Presentation at New Orleans Real Estate Forecast Symposium New Orleans, LA October 10, 2017

GDP Quarterly Growth Rate

Presidential GDP Growth Rates

Personal Consumption Growth Rate

Business Spending Growth Rate (Non-residential fixed investment)

Business Investment Spending Spending for Structure lagging behind Equipment ($ billion)

Government Spending Growth Rate

Export and Import Growth Rates Exports (Red) Imports (Blue)

Exports and Imports

Unemployment Rate vs. Employment Rate

Employment Rate: Men vs Women

Total Job Openings In thousands

Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Filings In thousands

Mortgage Rates Taper Tantrum and Trump Election 30-year Fixed Rate

Stock Market: S&P 500 Index

Animal Spirit Revival of Consumers? Consumer Confidence Index

Animal Spirit Revival of Businesses? Small Business Optimism Index

New Supply Homebuilding Single-family rentals are sold (not bought) Airbnb ... Fewer vacant homes and rooms

Single-family Housing Starts (Shortage of Lots, Labor, Lending, Lumber) Thousand units

Months to Sell a Newly Built Home

Multifamily Housing Starts Thousand units

Steady Job Creations (8 million lost … 16 million gained) In thousands

Total Jobs in New Orleans Metro In thousands

Total Job Openings In thousands

Homeowners Equity in Real Estate from 1990 $ billion

CPI Inflation: No Worries (Overall and Core)

Monetary Policy Fed Funds Rate

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Pace and Impact of Unwinding Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Pace and Impact of Unwinding? Slow but Uncertain

Apartment % Source: CBRE via ULI

New Orleans Market Pricing for multifamily properties accelerates in 2017 Source: Louisiana Commercial Realty, LoopNet

New Orleans Metro Housing Permits Single-Family and Multifamily

Pent-Up Demand: Actual vs Projected Households KC Federal Reserve estimate of 6.9 million missing households

Young Adults Living with Parents % of those aged 25 to 34

Post-College Likely Renters (Age 25 to 29)

Office % Source: CBRE via ULI

New Orleans Market Office rents pick up, while investment prices flatten Source: Louisiana Commercial Realty, LoopNet Source: Louisiana Commercial Realty, LoopNet

Industrial-Warehouse % Source: CBRE via ULI

New Orleans Market Industrial demand drives rent growth Source: Louisiana Commercial Realty, LoopNet Source: Louisiana Commercial Realty, LoopNet

Retail % Source: CBRE via ULI

New Orleans Market Retail rents reflect gains in tourism flows Source: Louisiana Commercial Realty, LoopNet Source: Louisiana Commercial Realty, LoopNet

Why Industrial Outperforms?

Past Non-Store Retail Sales

New Orleans remains dominant travel destination in LA… Source: Kantar TNS Source: Kantar TNS

Commercial Property Price may be Bubblish (90% gain in 7 years) Source: Federal Reserve

Commercial Investment Sales of Large Properties (Properties valued at $2.5 million and over)

NCREIF Cap Rates – Likely Already Hit Cyclical Low %

New Orleans CRE investments mirror broader US trends Source: Real Capital Analytics Source: Real Capital Analytics Q2.2017: 6.4%

REALTORS® CRE sales rebound 4.4% in Q2.2017

Big Cap and Small Cap Real Capital Analytics REALTOR Activity $2.5 million and over transactions REALTOR Activity Mostly around $500,000 to $1 million transactions

Forecast

Economic Forecast 2015 2016 2017 Forecast 2018 GDP Growth 2.9% 1.5% 1.7% 2.7% Job Growth +2.6 million +2.0 million +1.8 million +2.4 million CPI Inflation 0.3% 1.3% 2.0% 2.5%

Actual versus projected Households KC Federal Reserve estimate of 6 Actual versus projected Households KC Federal Reserve estimate of 6.9 million missing households

Young Adults Living with Parents % of those aged 25 to 34

Housing Forecast 2015 2016 2017 Forecast 2018 New Home Sales 500,000 560,000 600,000 700,000 Existing Home Sales 5.3 million 5.4 million Fewer 5.8 million Median Price Growth + 6.8% +5.1% +5.7% +4.6% 30-year Rate 3.9% 3.6% 4.0% 4.5%

Commercial Real Estate Forecast 2017-2018 Vacancy Rent Apartment Rising 50 to 80 basis points Rising Slowly 3% per year Office Stable 2.5% per year Industrial 4% per year Retail 2% per year

Rising Cap Rates and Commercial Real Estate Prices Steady prices in mid-tier markets Modest price correction in big cities and trophy properties Green Street price index could fall 4% to 8% over the next two years

Trump Presidency Dodd-Frank? Fannie/Freddie and Mortgage Availability? Tax Simplification? and Mortgage Interest Deduction and 1031 exchange? EPA, land use, development fees?