It’s Friday, September 1 Look at sleep deprivation from the biopsychosocial approach? Bio: Psycho: Social: Why are hunches, intuition and common sense not credible? Today’s topic: The need for thinking critically and descriptive research methods Upcoming Dates: Homework: Read chapter 2 (pages 29-33) Work on terms Assessments: Test: September 19
Thinking Critically and Research Methods AP Psychology Myers, Ch. 2
Why is Psychology a Science? How can we best understand why people think, feel, and act as they do? Hunches? Common sense? Intuition? Psychology needs a scientific approach to separate “common sense” and “hunches” from actual credible evidence.
Limits of Intuition and Common Sense “The naked intellect is an extraordinarily inaccurate instrument.” - Madeleine L’Engle (1977)
Intuition and Common Sense - Why are they not credible? Give an example of intuition: Give an example of something that you consider to be common sense: Why are Intuition and Common Sense not credible? Differ from person to person Not always 100% correct Always seem correct after the fact
Hindsight Bias The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it. “I knew it all along phenomenon” Hindsight is 20/20 – after the fact, it is easy to see why an event occurred, someone acted in a certain way, etc Psychological findings often seem already known or like common sense because we constantly observe psychological phenomena or “knew it all along.”
Examples of Hindsight Bias On the evening of an important NFL game, your friend predicts that the Panthers are going to win by a large margin in the NFC Championship game. In fact, the Panthers do end up winning the game, causing your friend to boast “I predicted it!” A letter comes in the mail informing an individual that he was accepted into a college. When he tells his mother she says, “I really had a feeling that you were going to get in” (even though she had expressed doubts to his father earlier that week). You are nervous to take an exam for which you waited to study until the very last minute. When you take the exam, you feel unsure about the results; however, when your grade comes back a B+, you exclaim to your friends, “I was sure that I’d aced that exam!” and actually believe it in hindsight. On a snowy night, a police officer predicts that it’s the perfect condition for a teenaged driver to get into a fender-bender. When the police scanner says that a driver who had just received her license skidded into a mailbox, the officer tells himself that he had been certain such a thing would happen on that night, of all nights. A young lady waits for a telephone call from a gentleman she’s given her number to several nights before. In spite of his not calling for three nights, he finally does on the fourth. The girl’s best friend says, although it took him longer than expected, she knew that he would call eventually.
Your example: Hind-sight bias Think of a time that you’ve recently experienced hind- sight bias. Together with your partner, discuss and write in your notes examples of hindsight bias.
Anagrams WREAT WATER ETRYN ENTRY OCHSA ????
Common Sense Describes more easily what has already happened than it can predict what will happen in the future. Things that seem like common sense or that we have taken as fact are in many cases proved wrong by psychological research. “Dreams can predict the future.” “Emotions are linked with a female’s menstrual cycle.” “You catch a cold from being in a cold, wet environment.”
Overconfidence The tendency to overestimate our abilities, including knowledge (the illusion of knowledge) Faster Smarter Stronger More aware More observant Even after being presented with the presence of overconfidence, most claim, “Well I was close.”
Your Example: Overconfidence Think of a time that you’ve recently experienced over- confidence. Together with your partner, discuss and write in your notes examples of times that you’ve been overconfident.
Draw a bike. A B C D
A I bet you were pretty confident you knew how to draw a bike… Our brains allow us to be overconfident to shield us from everything we DON’T know. How many of you are claiming, “I knew it was A. all along!” (hindsight bias!)
The Bottom Line Hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate our intuition. But scientific inquiry, fed by curious skepticism and by humility, can help us sift reality from illusions.
The Need for Critical Thinking Smart thinking Thinking that does not blindly accept arguments and conclusions; rather it examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence, and assesses conclusions. How do you know this? Is there an agenda here? Is the conclusion based on evidence not a hunch? Are there any alternative conclusions?
Warm-up/Review: Discuss the following with a partner: Review hindsight bias and overconfidence. Try to give and example of either that you encountered this weekend (or come up with an original example of either one).
A Scientific Attitude “Experiment adds to knowledge. Credulity leads to error.” -Anonymous
No matter how crazy an idea or hypothesis sounds… the questions are: Does it work? When put to the test, can its predictions be confirmed? Things that we take as granted now, were once considered crazy but were proven true with scientific inquiry. the earth revolves around the sun meteorites are from outer space the earth is round
Scientific Attitude Being skeptical but not cynical, open but not gullible Humility – being humble, often scientists must reject their own ideas/hypotheses “The rat is always right.”
3) Research and Observations The Scientific Method A method in which scientists make observations, form theories, and then refine theories in the light of observations. 1) Theories 2) Hypothesis 3) Research and Observations Generate or refine… Lead to… Lead to…
The Scientific Method Theory – an explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes and predicts observations Must be put to the test before accepted as fact Hypothesis – a testable prediction, often implied by a theory Replication – repeating the essence of a research study, usually with different participants in different situations, to see whether the basic finding extends to other participants in other circumstances
Descriptive Methods Description is the starting point of any science. These types of research methods describe behaviors/attitudes, not explain them.
Case Study An observation technique in which one person is studied in depth with the hope of revealing universal principles. Pros: Insight into specific cases that possibly could not be studied due to ethics Can suggest further hypotheses for the future Cons: Individual studies are hard to generalize to large populations Some events/circumstances cannot be replicated (ethics) People interviewed could distort their experiences Ex: brain lesion studies, instances of feral children
Survey A technique for ascertaining the self-reported attitudes or behaviors of people, usually by questioning a representative, random sample of them. Must have a representative and random sampling from the population for generalization to be possible Population – all of the cases in a group from which samples may be drawn for study Representative – reflective of the population Random sample – a sample in which all individuals have an equal chance of inclusion in the study Generalization – the ability to reflect results from the random sample on the entire population
Survey Pros: Cons: Ex: Gallup polls, Kinsey Report on sexuality Can study large populations from a representative sample Cons: Self-reporting is not always reliable Samples are not always representative Results are largely based on how questions are worded (“aid to the needy” instead of “welfare”) Ex: Gallup polls, Kinsey Report on sexuality
Naturalistic Observation Observing and recording behavior in naturally occurring situations without trying to manipulate and control the situation. The observer must not manipulate or stage the situation. Pros: Observe people/animals in real, not artificial, environments Cons: No control over events or variables Ex: videotaping mothers and children together in different cultures, recording students’ self-seating patterns in the lunchroom