Simulation Meaning Types The Monte Carlo Methodology.

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Presentation transcript:

Simulation Meaning Types The Monte Carlo Methodology

Simulation Meaning To assume the appearances or characteristics of reality A descriptive technique that enables a decision maker to evaluate the behaviour of a model under various conditions.

Types of Simulation Five types. They are Monte carlo Visual simulation Business games Corporate planning System dynamics

Monte carlo Probabilistic simulation technique used when a process has a random or chance component. Find Simulated demand for 10 weeks Get cumulative probability then assign representative range number generate random number and compute the result Weekly demand Probability 2000 .12 3000 .23 4000 .48 5000 .17 Weekly demand probability Cumulative Probability Representative numbers(range) 2000 .12 01-12 3000 .23 .35 13-35 4000 .48 .83 36-83 5000 .17 1.00 84-00

Monte carlo Wkly demand probability Cumulative Probability Representative numbers(range 2000 .12 01-12 3000 .23 .35 13-35 4000 .48 .83 36-83 5000 .17 1.00 84-00 Week no RN Simulated demand 1 32 3000 2 08 2000 3 46 4000 4 92 5000 5 69 6 71 7 29 8 9 80 10 14

Simulate break down for 10 day period No of brkdown probability Cumulative Probability Representative numbers(range .10 .1 01-10 1 .3 .4 11-40 2 .25 .65 41-65 3 .2 .85 4 .95 5 .05 1.00 No of breakdown Probability .1 1 3 2 .25 .2 4 5 .05 Week no RN Simulated brkdown 1 32 2 08 2000 3 46 4000 4 92 5000 5 69 6 71 7 29 3000 8 9 80 10 14

Quiz 1- Time 15 minutes Project mgt mainly developed by----- PERT and CPM Stand for…… CPM is --- --- --- Write short note on PERT What do expediting activates require? What is slope? Write the steps in forecasting. What is qualitative forecasting? Write short note on historical analogy. In panel consensus the idea is what? What is α in forecasting? The past data and future projections are assumed to fall about a --- --- What is causal relationship forecasting? Write the types of forecasting What is an event?