Review of Winter monsoon 2016 for Maldives

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Presentation transcript:

Review of Winter monsoon 2016 for Maldives SASCOF -11 Male’. Maldives 25 – 27 September, 2017

Existing weather forecasting systems. Over view of the presentation Outline Introduction Climate of Maldives Existing weather forecasting systems. Validation of 2016 NE Monsoon Forecast

Introduction

General Climate of Maldives Maldives is located on the equator and therefore experiences monsoonal climate. There are two distinct seasons, dry season (Northeast Monsoon extents from Dec to April) and wet season (Southwest Monsoon from Mid- May to Nov). In these two seasons the temperature varies hardly. Northeast monsoon extends from December to April.

General Climate of Maldives

MMS Capacity Manned observatories : 5 Automatic Weather Station : 20 Upper air observation : 1 Weather RADAR(Doppler) : 1 Seismometer : 2 Tide gauge : 3 Satellite picture receiving system (CMACast) : 1 Numerical Weather Prediction Models ( WRF ) Ocean Buoy

Severe Weather events over Maldives Cyclones Tornado / Water Spout Storms (thunderstorms) Swell & Tidal Waves Strong winds Flash Flood

Climate Forecasting

Validation of 2016 forecast The Consensus forecast for 2016 Northeast monsoon rainfall suggested that during the 2016 Northeast monsoon season, Below Normal rainfall was expected over the Maldives.

Validation of 2016 forecast

Validation of 2016 Forecast In 2016 Below Normal rainfall was observed in Northern atolls. Above Normal rainfall was recorded in Central atolls. Rainfall was Normal in Southern atolls.

Validation of 2016 forecast

Validation of 2016 forecast JFMA rainfall was less compare to long term average rainfall in central atolls and slightly more in northern atolls. Some flooding event happened in Thaa and Laamu atoll during this period

Validation The 2016 NE Monsoon forecast (OND)was good for northern areas More rain was observed in central atolls during OND. Normal Rainfall was recorded in Southern atolls during OND. Comparing 3 regions, the overall forecast was good for Maldives

CPT Forecast

CCA Map

Probability maps

Thank you Dial Weather : 3317171 / 171 Phone : 3323084 / 7967171 Website: www.meteorology.gov.mv/met Email : admin@meteorology.gov.mv

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