Country Presentation SASCOF September 2016 Maldives

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BACKGROUND Bhutan, a small country with mountainous terrain is largely agrarian, dominated by subsistence agriculture on 2.93% of total land area, often.

Presentation transcript:

Country Presentation SASCOF 11 25-27 September 2016 Maldives Tshencho Dorji National Center For Hydrology and Meteorology Bhutan

Outline of Presentation Country introduction Winter monsoon for Bhutan Verification of 2016 winter rainfall forecast Prediction for 2017 winter monsoon Conclusion

Country Introduction Total area: 38,394 Sq. Km Population : 750,000 79 % of population is farmer Location: Southern Asia, between China & India Altitude : 100 m in the south to 7500 m to the North above msl Forest Coverage: 72.5% - Policy is to ensure at least 60% for all time Topography : 95% Mountain terrain

Monsoon in Bhutan Bhutan Climatic is generally dominated by monsoon winds with dry winter and wet summer monsoon DJF MAM JJAS ON 2% 19% 73% 6%

Verification of 2016 Winter Monsoon Forecast

Outlook for 2016 winter season CPT Observed SST August (1982-2016) Goodness Index = 0.442 Forecast of above normal OND rainfall

Observed winter (OND) monsoon vs model forecast OND 2016 rainfall observed to be above normal Model forecast also indicated above normal rainfall

Prediction for OND 2017 Winter Monsoon

Prediction for 2017 winter season CPT Observed SST August (1980-2017) Goodness Index = 0.350 Forecast of normal rainfall during OND

WMO lead center forecast Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast from WMO lead center indicates normal rainfall

Conclusion Forecast of above normal rainfall was predicted for 2016 (OND) and actual rainfall observed was also above normal. The rainfall forecast for OND 2017 is normal. Temperature forecast should be included during the future SASCOFs.

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