Analysis of Sand and Dust Storms (SDS) between the years 2003 and 2016 Turkish State Meteorological Service Analysis of Sand and Dust Storms (SDS) between the years 2003 and 2016 in the Middle East Assist. Prof. Dr. Mustafa COŞKUN Turkish State Meteorological Service Head of Research Department

Sand and Dust Storms (SDS) Dust transport is very important issue for the world ecosystem. Desert dusts could be transported for a long distances, by transferring the upper layers of the atmosphere. SAHARA Arabian Peninsula Iran Main dust source areas in Middle East and North Africa are known as Sahara, Sahel, Arabian Peninsula and Iran.

Spatial variability of the annual dust emission potential in ME. SDS Source Areas Spatial variability of the annual dust emission potential in ME. Gherboudj, I., Beegum, S. N., & Ghedira, H. (2016). Identifying natural dust source regions over the Middle-East and North-Africa: Estimation of dust emission potential. Earth-Science Reviews.

Sand and Dust Storms (SDS) Global Dust Potential Map. IPCC accepts mineral dust as a very important component of atmospheric aerosols, one of the main climate variables. According to the IPCC's latest climate predictions, it is expected that sand and dust storms will be more intense as the frequency and severity of the drought has increased. BAN Ki-Moon, “Global Assessment of Sand and Dust Storms, UNEP, WMO, UNCCD (2016) ”. Editor: Gemma Shepherd, UNEP There is considerable uncertainty about whether SDS are increasing in intensity and frequency and how much is due to human causes. There is also need for greater clarity on the role that climate change is playing and how changes in dust emissions due to land use. Global Dust Potential Map. Source: DTF (2013).

Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) provides important information about the concentration, size distribution, and variability of aerosols (desert dust, sea salt, haze, and smoke particles) in the atmosphere. It is a dimensionless number related to the amount of aerosol distributed within the vertical column of atmosphere over the observation location. AOD provides a quantitative measure of the extinction of solar radiation due to aerosol scattering and absorption. Heavy dust regions are defined by AOD higher than 0.3. Around deserts, AOD values are above 1.0 and usually below 3.0. March 10, 2009 - Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Angstrom Exponent (AE) The Angstrom Exponent (AE) is an exponent that provides additional information on the particle size, aerosol phase function and the relative magnitude of aerosol radiances at different wavelengths. It is inversely related to the average size of the particles in the aerosol: the smaller the particle size, the larger the Angstrom Exponent is. Therefore, low AE values indicate strong presence of coarse aerosols relating to the dust events.

SDS Analysis over Middle East Mean AOD of the period 2003- 2016 illustrates high AOD values reaching up to 0.5 over east of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq and Persian Gulf. Low AE values are observed over Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria and lowest ones over Persian Gulf. Those areas with low AE and high AOD point out dust storms.

Spatial AOD and AE Variaton in ME Moving northward along 20-38N, AOD values decrease while AE values show an increase. In the southern part of the Middle East, this behavior can be closely related to more strong and frequent dust storms characterized by high AOD and low AE.

Annual AOD Trends in Middle East Annual AOD values of the Central Middle East almost follow the averaged values of the Middle East Region as expected, while higher values of AOD are observed in the Southern ME.

Seasonal AOD Variation in Middle East Seasonal variation of AOD in the Central Middle East is similar to averaged AOD values of the Middle East which has a maximum in April. On the other hand, the Southern Middle East exhibits a different seasonal pattern with a maximum AOD value in July. AOD values have a maximum in spring and low AOD values are observed during winter season for both Northern and Central ME.

Extreme and Strong Aerosol Events By using threshold values of AOD, extreme and strong aerosol events were calculated (Gkikas et al 2009). Extreme aerosol events point out dust storms while strong aerosol events are linked to sea salt, forest fires and anthropogenic activities. In the southern region, high number of SDS occurs compared to the northern region throughout 14 years. High values of monthly dust events shift to summer when we move southward in the Middle East.

Annual AOD Trends in Middle East For the last 4 years (2013-2016), annual mean AOD is comparably lower than the previous period due to the 3 different satellite measurements. The values are the highest between 2008 and 2012.

Turkish State Meteorological Service SDS Studies at TSMS

SDS Forecasts at TSMS The BSC-DREAM8b SDS Forecast model has been established at TSMS in cooperation with Spanish Met. Service under the EU TAIEX Small Grants Program. The operational forecasts by BSC-DREAM8b have been started in June 2010. Forecasts are published at TSMS website.

WDCC - Weather, Dust and Climate Center www.wdcc.mgm.gov.tr

Virtual SDS Forecasting Center Turkey hosts the Virtual SDS Forecasting Center for the Middle East countries in accordance with the “Action Plan on the Cooperation on the Environment and Meteorology” agreed by Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Qatar. Operational SDS Forecasts have been produced and published for the countries in Middle East and North Africa through this center since November 2012.

SDS Training Activities 22-26 Feb. 2011, Istanbul 21-25 Nov. 2011, Antalya 26-28 Nov. 2012, Ankara 28-31 Oct. 2013, Istanbul 04-07 Oct. 2016, Istanbul

Turkish State Meteorological Service THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION Assist. Prof. Dr. Mustafa COŞKUN Turkish State Meteorological Service Head of Research Department

Turkish State Meteorological Service

AOD Trends, 2000 - 2009 Zhang and Reid (2010) analyzed MODIS and MISR AOD data for the period 2000-2009 over the ocean both global and regional scale. They haven’t found significant trend in global (0.003/decade). On a regional scale the Bay of Bengal (0.07/decade), Asia's eastern coast (0.06/ decade) and on the Arabian Sea (0.06/decade), significant increases were observed. - 0.013 - 0.016 0.058 0.062 0.069 Zhang, J., & Reid, J. S. (2010). A decadal regional and global trend analysis of the aerosol optical depth using a data-assimilation grade over-water MODIS and Level 2 MISR aerosol products. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10(22), 10949-10963.

AOD Trends, 2000 - 2009 Hsu et al.: Aerosol optical depth over land and ocean. Comparisons of global and regional annual trends based upon deseasonalised monthly anomaly of SeaWiFS AOD at 550 nm from January 1998 to December 2010. Units are AODyr−1. Red bars represent regions with AOD trend statistically significant (exceeding 90% confidence), while blue bars indicate regions where statistically significant trend are not found.

AOD Trends, 2000 - 2009 Hsu et al., Global and regional trends of AOD over land and ocean using SeaWiFS measurements from 1997 to 2010. The resulting trend analyses based upon the SeaWiFS data from 1998 to 2010 show that the global annual trend of AOD during this period, although weakly positive (i.e. 0.00078 ± 0.00019 yr−1) and statistically significant at 95% level. For the mineral dust-dominated parts of the world, strong positive trends are detected over the Arabian Peninsula and the adjacent waters. In contrast, a negative tendency is observed in the emission and export of Saharan dust over the western North Africa and the North Atlantic. Hsu, N. C., Gautam, R., Sayer, A. M., Bettenhausen, C., Li, C., Jeong, M. J., Tsay, S.-C., and Holben, B. N.: Global and regional trends of aerosol optical depth over land and ocean using SeaWiFS measurements from 1997 to 2010, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 8037-8053, doi:10.5194/acp-12-8037-2012, 2012.