Not paying for that wall anytime soon Mexico Not paying for that wall anytime soon

Brief History in 3 Segments Colonialism (1519 – 1821) Independence until the Revolution of 1910 (1810 - 1911) 20th Century (1911 – Present)

Colonialism Cultural Heterogeneity Began as Amerindians controlled by the Aztecs from Tenochtitlan Spanish conquistadors (Hernan Cortes) bring it under Spanish control Population is now 60% Mestizo, with more Amerindians living in the south

Population in Mexico Today

Colonialism Catholicism Economic Dependency Spanish missions became population centers Economic Dependency Colony depended on Spain for all resources Spanish mostly ignored (never explored) Mexico’s vast natural resources

Religious Affiliation in Mexico

Independence (1810 -1911) Miguel Hidalgo led a popular rebellion against Spanish rule in 1810 Formal recognition of independence from Spain comes in 1821 Characteristics of the new country Instability – absence of Spanish hierarchy Rise of military – high ranking generals often served simultaneously as president Domination by the U.S. – instability of its southern neighbor leads U.S. to challenge Mexican land claims Liberal vs. Conservative Struggle – ideals of popular democracy clash with colonial style authoritarianism

Miguel Hidalgo “Father of the Mexican Nation”

Viva Revolucion! Revolution

Independence (1810 -1911) The Porfiriato (1876 – 1911) Porfirio Diaz stages a military coup in 1876 and becomes president promising one term in office He sort of broke that promise. Characteristics Stability Authoritarianism – no power sharing beyond small group of elites Foreign investment, economic growth – primarily from the U.S. Growing gap between rich and poor

Porfirio Diaz President of Mexico, 1876-1880 1884-1911

Protest banner in 1903 – “The Constitution Has Died”

20th Century 1910 Revolution Reformers seek an end to Diaz’s rule, Diaz blocks any creation of a presidential election Support grew for General Francisco Madero, Diaz is forced to abdicate in 1911 Characteristics from 1910 to 1934 Chaos Warlordism Popular uprisings

20th Century Influences of the Era Patron-Client System Caudillos challenge each other for power Emiliano Zapata, Pancho Villa lead peasant armies in separate rebellions Many assassinations between caudillo followers Constitution of 1917 Established democratic elections, 3 branches, did not end violence or assassinations

20th Century Influences of the Era Conflict with the Catholic Church Christeros Rebellion – liberals believe church is an instrument of authoritarian conservatives, restrict church activities, priests fight back Establishment of the PRI Caudillos all came together under 1 political party Pass power between each other in single 6 year terms (sexenio) Other leaders get major positions in government

20th Century The Cardenas Presidency (1934-1940) Redistribution of land – ejidos given to peasants Nationalization of industry – foreign business owners were kicked out and taken under government control Protected domestic industry through import substitution industrialization (ISI) – high tariffs Investment in public works – roads, electricity, other public services Encouragement of peasant and union organization Concentration of presidential power, peaceful transfer to the next caudillo

Lazaro Cardenas President of Mexico 1934-1940

20th Century Pendulum Theory – after Cardenas, President Aleman returned to a private-industrial economy, and the next president returned to Cardenas-style policies, and so on… Pendulum ends in 1970s with the rise of technicos – educated business oriented leaders who favored the free market 1980s characterized by neoliberalism – free market, balanced government budget, privatization of industry, limited government Results in “Mexican Miracle” – spectacular GNP growth through the early 1980s Conflict develops between politicos (old elite of the PRI) and the technicos

Cleavages in Mexico Urban vs. Rural – Mexico is 75% urban Urban voters are less likely to support PRI Social Class – Gini coefficient of .50 Poorest 10% has 1.6% of the money Richest 10% has 35.6% Middle to upper income earners likely support PAN Mestizo vs. Amerindian – 30% see themselves as Amerindian Amerindians are more likely to live in impoverished rural areas

Cleavages in Mexico North vs. South North is dry and mountainous Trade with U.S. has enriched the north (NAFTA) North is more likely to support PAN South has not benefited from NAFTA Zapatista movement based in the south

Political Participation in Mexico Patron-Clientelism Rooted in loyalty to caudillos in 19th century Diminishing due to modernization, urbanization, but still prevalent Accusations by PRD’s Obrador that PAN’s Calderon won through vote-rigging Protests Government usually responds with co-optation; bringing protesters into the political process ex. Tlatelolco Plaza masacre led to student protesters working in the next presidential administration

Student protesters confront the army prior to the “Tlateloco Massacre”

PRD activists protest in Mexico City after the 2006 election, alleging fraud and vote rigging

Political Participation in Mexico Voting PRI controlled elections at all levels until reforms in the 1990’s Election day parties with free food, entertainment for PRI voters, rife with corruption Today around 60-65% of Mexicans vote in presidential elections Voter behavior is often determined by Region – North supports PAN, South supports PRD Education Level – Higher educated voters more likely to vote PAN or PRD than PRI Income – Higher income voters more likely to vote PAN

Many believed the PRI was gone for good after election reforms in the 1990s and early 2000s

2006 Election by State Blue = PAN Yellow = PRD Green = PRI

2012 Election by State Blue = PAN Yellow = PRD Green = PRI

Political Participation in Mexico Civil Society PRI practiced state corporatism – state mediated among groups to prevent challenges to the government Created 3 interest groups; labor, peasants, and middle class with each controlled by the PRI PAN formed around discontented business owners who were not connected to the system (1939) State corporatism, neocorporatism, and pluralism all could possibly emerge now with the fall of the PRI and rise of competitive elections

Political Institutions Regime is transitioning from authoritarianism and control to liberal democracy and capitalism Economically mixed picture PPP adjusted income - $18,938 per year (2016) Massive inequality 33% live on less than $5 per day Gini Coefficient – 48.2 (2014) Economic dependency on neighbors (one in particular…) Developed? Developing? MIC?

Political Institutions Transition to Democracy 2000 and 2006 elections saw considerable progress in political accountability, competition, freedom, and equality Every election, including 2012, still come with allegations of irregularities

Political Parties PRI – Institutional Revolutionary Party In power continuously from 1920 to 2000 Formed out of elites who wished to compromise rather than perpetuate violence Coroporatist structure – groups were carefully selected to come under the party umbrella and wield influence Patron-Clientelism – support comes from rural areas where PRI can do favors Current platform? Not much… basically playing on voters’ dissatisfaction with PAN handling of the economy and drug war

Political Parties PAN – National Action Party PRI’s opposition to the right Platform Regional autonomy Less government in the economy Clean and fair elections Good rapport with the Catholic Church Support for private and religious education Won legislature and presidency in 2000 and 2006, lost control of legislature in 2009, then the presidency in 2012

Political Parties PRD – Democratic Revolutionary Party PRI’s opposition to the left Has been poorly organized, lacks a clear defining alternative to pro-market PAN Led by Obrador, finished just behind PAN’s Calderon for president in 2006, distant 2nd in 2012

Elections Direct elections for president, Chamber of Deputies, senators, and most state and local officials Most competitive in urban areas, though competition is growing in rural Pressure for elections to be fair started in 1988 during and after the “stolen” election Population was becoming more urban, educated Mexico sought world trade agreements, led to international pressure After losses in 2000 and 2006, post-2012 PRI once again holds the presidency, and the most seats in both legislative chambers

One perspective on what happened in 2012…

Elections Presidential Senate Chamber of Deputies “First past the post” Senate Each of 31 states elects 3 senators 2 chosen through direct election 1 given to party with the 2nd highest number of votes 32 more senators chosen through proportional representation Chamber of Deputies 300 seats determined by plurality SMD vote 200 determined by proportional representation

Interest Groups Through cooptation, Mexican private organizations have always been well linked into the government Leads to slow development of civil society Elements of state corporatism led business elites to get rich through connections, but were not incorporated into the PRI Labor was accommodated after unionizing, made strong gains from 1940-1982 PAN leans more toward neocorporatism than PRI

Media No criticism under PRI rule Government subsidized sympathetic media outlets Most media revenue came from PRI ads PAN rule allowed open media access, domestic and international news agencies, including embarrassing stories about the government “Toallagate” – scandal about overpriced towels purchased for Pres. Fox’s mansion “Comes y te vas” – “eat and go” instructions given to Castro during a U.N. gathering became a controversy

A newsstand with a few of Mexico’s print media options

2012 Media Controversy Many Mexicans believed Televisa, the largest media company in Mexico, heavily biased its coverage in favor of PRI candidate Enrique Pena Nieto Yo Soy 132 – Student uprising against media bias Pena Nieto ordered a crackdown on protestors as Governor of Mexico, and some were killed He asserted he would do it again at a university campaign event, prompting protests Televisa asserted it was not students, but radical party activists protesting

131 students went online and held up their university ID card, saying they were the ones protesting

… and many Mexicans joined, saying “I am # 132!”

Government Institutions Mexico is a Federal Republic – considerable power at the national and state levels Historical distribution Presidency dominated the power structure Legislature and judiciary acted as “rubber stamp” for executive decisions Constitution of 1917 is modeled on the U.S., with checks and balances, 3 branches, federalism Tended towards authoritarianism through 20th century, despite the constitution Modern description would be “strong presidential system”

Executive President elected every 6 years, can serve one sexenio (6 year term) Under the PRI, incumbent would select the successor, appoint all powerful bureaucratic officials, name candidates for governor and Senate President was effectively the manager of a massive patron-client system PAN’s Fox was the first to try and govern without the patron-client PRI system behind him People in Mexico still view the president as all powerful, and responsible for all failures of government Fox lacked support of the legislature, was still blamed for failing to enact programs

Carlos Salinas de Gortari President of Mexico, 1988-1994 Reputation as one of the most corrupt administrations in Mexican history led to demands for reform

Vicente Fox President of Mexico 2000 - 2006

Felipe Calderon President of Mexico 2006 - 2012

Enrique Pena Nieto President of Mexico 2012 - Present

Imagery of Salinas is often used by opponents of the PRI

Bureaucracy 1.5 million employees of the federal government Paid very little, but even low to mid level bureaucrats have considerable power PRI officials would use position to boost their incomes through corrupt practices… most expect it to occur today as well Para-Statal entities – autonomous governmental agencies PEMEX – state owned oil company Fox pushed for privatization of entities like PEMEX but failed Pena Nieto has pushed through reforms to subject PEMEX to foreign competitors

Debate over Privatization From the Economist An opposing perspective

Corruption of Public Officials

Legislature Bicameral Congress Chamber of Deputies – 500 members Senate – 128 members Functionally similar to U.S. Congress constitutionally, but was controlled by the president until the 1980’s PRI’s legislative grip was lost by 1988 due to growing strength of opposition and proportional representation reforms Lacked a majority for the first time in 1997 PRI has held the most seats since 2009 Parties were required by law to sponsor 30% women candidates, now 50%! 37% of Congress is female, highest percent of the countries we study (2nd is China, 23.6%, lowest is Iran, 3.1%) Challenges the president, but has not fully developed into a true president “check”

The Chamber of Deputies

The Senate of the Republic

Judiciary Follows code law, not common law Common law – based on tradition, past legal precedents, courts may interpret statutes Code law – comprehensive system of written rules for criminal, commercial, and civil codes Judiciary does not have power of judicial review Supreme Court has the power constitutionally, but never exercises it on important issues Judiciary is becoming increasingly independent Judges are appointed for life, Supreme Court of the Nation judges have a 15 year term Historically, all judges would resign at start of a new sexenio Zedillo administration (1994-2000) tried to strengthen judiciary by obeying court judgments Strong judiciary is difficult due to perception that judges are corrupt Many states had “closed door” trials – 2008 reform required public trials by 2016

The Supreme Court of Mexico

Military Generals dominated politics through the 19th and early 20th century All presidents were generals through 1940s Creation and centralization of power into the PRI brought the military under control Presidents Calles and Cardenas rotated generals’ regional commands, effectively depoliticizing the military Often provided generals with business opportunities and other economic benefits to keep them out of politics Military is now feared to be accepting deals with drug cartels, similar to the arrangement they used to have with the government General Jesus Gutierrez Rebollo, head of anti-drug force, arrested in 1997 for protecting a drug lord

Current Issues in Mexico The Economy Problems Large gap between rich and poor Rapid, unplanned urbanization Heavy borrowing against high oil prices through the 1970’s… plummeting price in 1982 caused massive foreign debt (70% of GNP) IMF imposed structural adjustment program in exchange for loans Reforms – Begun by president Miguel de la Madrid and the technicos Sharp cuts in government spending Debt reduction Privatization, tax cutting to invite U.S. businesses into Mexico Oportunidades – government anti-poverty program that gives free benefits and jobs to those without formal jobs

Current Issues in Mexico Foreign Policy Historically bilateral – all focused on the U.S. Increasingly, Mexico asserts itself at the UN and WTO, among other international forums Drug Trafficking Campaign by Fox and Calderon to root out corruption has led to massive increase in violence Regularly involves brutal murders of police Cartels are competing to control distribution into the U.S.

Current Issues in Mexico Foreign Policy Immigration Policy Mexico supports amnesty for illegal immigrants, guest worker program Initially supported by Bush, but 9/11 changed American border priorities Calderon denounced the building of the border fence, comparing it to the Berlin Wall Former President Fox on Trump’s wall: “I’m not going to pay for that (expletive) wall.” Maquiladora and NAFTA Zones in Mexico without customs duties created to bring manufacturing business Lack of environmental and employment regulations in Mexico have led to criticism Mexico is also a GATT/WTO member

Current Issues in Mexico Ethnic Rebellions Zapatistas – EZLN protested NAFTA by capturing four towns, wearing black ski masks Saw NAFTA as exploitation of Amerindians to benefit PRI bosses Movement is growing in the South, very hostile to the rich, the government, and mestizos

Current Issues in Mexico Democracy Can competition be sustained without PRI establishment? CFE – Federal Election Commission Placed restrictions on campaign finance Reduced PRI control of media Bring in international watchers to ensure fair elections Allow election monitoring by opposition party