Public Choice Theory Dr. D. Foster Case Study: 1986 Congressional Race State of Hawaii District #1 Public Choice Theory Dr. D. Foster

Cec Heftel wants to run for Governor ! Mid-summer 1986 Cec Heftel wants to run for Governor ! He is currently the US Rep. for District 1. One problem: He must resign to run ! So, he resigns

Solution: Combine #1 & #2 in September. Mid-summer 1986 Primary September General November Elections Three Needs Need #1: Fill vacancy through Jan. 1987. Need #2: Select nominees for general election. Need #3: Elect Congressman in November. Solution: Combine #1 & #2 in September.

The Players Pat Saiki (R) Mufi Hanneman (D) Neil Abercrombie (D) Mid-summer 1986 Primary September General November The Players Elections Pat Saiki (R) Mufi Hanneman (D) Neil Abercrombie (D)

The Rules The Twist Anyone can vote in the primary. Mid-summer 1986 Primary September General November Elections The Rules Anyone can vote in the primary. The Twist Saiki has no discernable competition.

A graphical look at public support Mid-summer 1986 Primary September General November Elections A graphical look at public support N.A. M.H. P.S.

September Results: Pat Saiki wins Republican primary. Mid-summer 1986 Primary September General November Elections September Results: Pat Saiki wins Republican primary. Mufi Hanneman wins Democratic primary Neil Abercrombie wins Special Election !!!

Pat Saiki wins election !!! Mid-summer 1986 Primary September General November Elections November Results: Pat Saiki wins election !!!

What happened ? Republicans voted for Mufi in primary - the “weaker” candidate, and he wins!!! Republicans & Democrats have an incentive to vote for their favorite in the special election; Neil wins!!! Abercrombie supporters voted for Saiki in general election - retribution against Mufi’s campaign.

Debrief Saiki won a second term (1988-1990). Saiki ran for senate in 1990 - lost -- was selected to run SBA by Bush I. Abercromie ran again, and won, in 1990. -- served until 2010. Hanneman lost 1990 race for District 2. -- later served on Honolulu City Council. Cec Heftel lost bid for governorship.

Debrief II Abercromie wanted to be governor in 2010. -- resigned from District 1 seat in 2010! Hanneman becomes Honolulu mayor in 2004. -- re-elected in 2008. -- wants to be governor in 2010! Abercromie wins primary and general elections. Djou becomes interim Rep. for District 1. -- loses general election.

Public Choice Theory Dr. D. Foster Case Study: 1986 Congressional Race State of Hawaii District #1 Public Choice Theory Dr. D. Foster