Preparing for Dollar Appreciation

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Presentation transcript:

Preparing for Dollar Appreciation Quarterly Chartbook Q2 2018 Superforecasting StreamlinedTM © Complete Intelligence 2018 All Rights Reserved.

Complete Intelligence: Superforecasting StreamlinedTM The world is built on bad forecasts. We’re here to solve it. Complete Intelligence is a data technology firm using our proprietary machine learning platform to forecast commodities, currencies, equity market indices for 450 assets and economics and trade for >100 countries. A full list of our asset forecasts – commodities, currencies and equity markets - can be found here. A full list of our economics and trade forecasts can be found here. Do you have a question on this presentation or need a customized forecast? Please email us at contact@completeintel.com. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM

Superforecasting StreamlinedTM Developed market struggle to break out of “new normal” while China stumbles in Q2 More about economics and trade data at www.completeintel.com/economics. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM

China’s slowing growth beset by low inflation More about economics and trade data at www.completeintel.com/economics. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM

US inflation returns, but growth is subdued until Q4 2018 More about economics and trade data at www.completeintel.com/economics. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM

Fed normalization → Dollar appreciation (for now) More about commodity, currency and equity markets data at www.completeintel.com/markets. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM

Slightly weaker JPY → Slightly stronger Nikkei More about commodity, currency and equity markets data at www.completeintel.com/markets. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM

Corporate profits driving BSE Sensex More about commodity, currency and equity markets data at www.completeintel.com/markets. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM

Copper (SHFE) continues slump on slowing China demand More about commodity, currency and equity markets data at www.completeintel.com/markets. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM

Gold’s mid-summer rally gives false hope More about commodity, currency and equity markets data at www.completeintel.com/markets. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM

Subscribe to CI Weekly: Our free weekly newsletter Unmatched Thinking | Sharp Content Complete Intelligence provides free access to the most relevant analysis for markets and the world economy each week. From the US Dollar and the Fed, to China’s economy, European markets and Mexican exports, we provide concise and graphically-driven analysis using our own data and forecasts. Subscribe to the CI Weekly newsletter here. See our newsletter archive here. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM

Superforecasting StreamlinedTM Methodology The Complete Intelligence global model contains billions of data items across economics, trade, currencies and commodities. We have intentionally designed an integrated global model to ensure that actions in one market, country or sector of the economy are reflected elsewhere in markets, industries and the global economy. For each forecast line, we test more than 1 million functions from nearly 100 industry sectors and over 100 countries against the historical data series. We then shortlist the top functions (hundreds) that correlate with prices to build our forecast algorithm. We re-test and re-build millions of forecast algorithms every month to account for changes in the global economy, markets and trade flows. Price forecasting presents a unique challenge that extends beyond traditional regression analysis. A number of approaches can be taken to apply artificial intelligence to price forecasting, including: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (and its variants, including autoregressive fractional integrated moving average) Complete intelligence has undertaken detailed analysis and have prioritized the ARIMA-like approach over ANN, ANFIS and others. Through this process, we back test and reveal the forecast correlations and r-squared to give clients clarity on the actual levels of confidence for the forecast. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM

Disclaimer of Liability This Complete Intelligence Quarterly Chartbook (CIQC) may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, without the specific written permission of Complete Intelligence Pte. Ltd. Complete Intelligence Pte. Ltd. makes no warranty, representation or undertaking whether expressed or implied, nor does Complete Intelligence Pte. Ltd. assume any legal liability, whether direct or indirect, or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information that contain in this CIQC. It is not the intention of the CIQC to be used or deemed as recommendation, option or advice for any action(s) that may take place in future, including but not limited to investments. This CIQC is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment, strategy, plan or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Complete Intelligence Pte. Ltd. or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any transactions. This data does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any commodities, currencies, securities or products. Users must make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial, legal and tax advisers, if any data presented here is a basis for meeting personal goals. This is not intended for retail investors who should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, data, figures, predictions, or opinions set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. We do not have control over the output of our artificial intelligence algorithm once programmed, as it is enabled to make its own decisions and output the forecasting data presented. All information presented is considered by Complete Intelligence Pte. Ltd. to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. Investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and tax treatment and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM

Superforecasting StreamlinedTM Do you have a question on this presentation or need a customized forecast? Please email us at contact@completeintel.com. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM