Rural Ontario Foresight Papers 2017 Public Release October 19th, 2017 www.ruralontarioinstitute.ca/foresightpapers Series of 6 discussion papers + northern commentaries Informed perspective from knowledgeable experts, looking ahead at how to respond to rural challenges Purpose: to stimulate discussion among rural advocates, policy makers

In this map all the pink and red shades are declining In this map all the pink and red shades are declining. The blue areas are growing. The darkest blue at over twice the provincial average of 5%. The lightest blue is slower than provincial average but still positive at between 0 and 5. Rural jurisdictions both growing and declining… heterogenous situation means rural places need place based policy/solutions. There is no single strategy suitable for all places.

Proportion of Population 65+ Darkest green over 50% Lightest green is under 10 % The three darkest shades are all over the provincial average. Very few rural places have the same age structure as the province as a whole.

230 Thousand Rural Businesses in Ontario in 2016

Estimating # of Ontario Rural Businesses Undergoing Succession 232,251 number of rural businesses in 2016 48 % will exit in five years from CFIB survey Total Estimated number in 5 years… 111,480

Top Ten Concerns Cost of electricity Local economic development ... supporting growth of new businesses and entrepreneurs Improving broadband - higher speed and wider access Local economic development ...retaining businesses and supporting ownership succession  Regulatory burden on the municipal sector Protecting water quality in lakes, streams, rivers Access to quality health care services nearby Aging population Tourism promotion, managing tourism Attracting/retaining new residents A range of broad concerns are listed below crossing a spectrum of economic, environmental or social matters and types of services. On a scale of 1 to 5 rank each concern regarding your perspective on the impact this matter is having in your community and the priority of responding to it.  Rank each of some 48 concerns – impact it is having in your community and the priority of responding to it Not necessarily concerns that local government is solely responsible for … e.g. demographic change/aging population … health

Growth Beyond Cities: Place Based Rural Development in Ontario David Freshwater University of Kentucky

Fenn Advisory Services Inc., The Impact of Megatrends on Rural Development in Ontario: Progress through Foresight Michael Fenn Fenn Advisory Services Inc.,

Broadband Infrastructure for the Future: Connecting Rural Ontario to the Digital Economy Catherine Middleton Ryerson University

Rural Business Succession: Innovation Opportunities to Revitalize Local Communities Paul Chamberlain CCEDNET

The Visitor Economy and Rural Cultural Amenities Christopher Fullerton Brock University

Rural Volunteerism: How Well is the Heart of Community Doing? Tracy Birtch Perth Huron Social Planning Board

Adapted from: European Foresight Platform www.foresight-platform.eu/

Rural Transportation Challenges Exchanging Solutions

Rural Ontario Foresight Papers 2019 Topics/Themes? http://www.ruralontarioinstitute.ca/foresightpapers