1 Incorporating Extreme Weather Risks in Asset Management Planning Lynn Clarkowski

2 What is a Transportation Asset Mgmt Plan (TAMP)? A tool used to manage an organization's infrastructure and other assets with the objective of delivering an agreed upon standard of service Establishes a consistent and transparent statewide approach to planning, programming, and managing physical assets

3 Benefits of a TAMP? Lays out the process of how to best manage the highway pavements, bridges & other physical assets for the long term Resource allocation decisions are based on data and analysis –Consideration of engineering, life-cycle cost, and risk analysis with investment strategies Improved coordination between maintenance, preservations, and capital programs

4 Key MAP-21 Components of TAMP Asset Inventory/Conditions Objectives/Measures Performance Gap Assessment Lifecycle Cost Risk Analysis Financial Plan Investment Strategies

5 FHWA Asset Management Plan Pilot Project Support three state DOTs developing their first TAMP –Develop TAMP Work Plan Working with FHWA & MnDOT consultants Minnesota New York Louisiana

6 Asset Management Plan Scope Pavement Bridge Drainage Structures Guardrails Traffic Signals Signs Overhead Sign Structures Pavement Markings ITS Pedestrian Ramps Lighting Tower Lighting Land Rest Areas Sidewalks Retaining Walls Tunnels Noise Barrier Fencing Weigh Stations ADA Infrastructure Modal Infrastructure Transit Vehicles Highway Assets

7 MnDOTs TAMP Progress Asset inventory & condition collected for all four asset categories Life-cycle cost analysis complete Risk assessment complete –Workshop on November 15 to discuss mitigation strategies, costs, and risk impact Financial investment strategies & performance targets –Workshop on November 15 will also include discussion of financial plan elements

8 Describe lifecycle costs & why they are important Illustrate a typical deterioration model Describe strategies for managing assets over their whole life Contrast lifecycle costs for different strategies Document the lifecycle cost of adding a new lane Life-Cycle Cost

9 Pavement LCCA Results

10 Working Groups Identified Risks –Impacts to Asset, Users, MnDOT –Consequence & Likelihood –Mitigation Strategies & Gaps Workshop (9/20) Focus on Undermanaged Risks Comparative Prioritization Exercise Risk Assessment

11 Few Very High Risk areas Top (Prioritized) Undermanaged Risks – Inability to appropriately manage culverts – Not meeting public expectations for local/corridor level pavement quality/condition – Tunnel and culvert failure or collapse – Premature deterioration of a bridge Risk Results

12 MnDOTs Flash Flood Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Pilot Project in NE & SE Minnesota

13 Project Background Minnesota GO Vision & Statewide Multimodal Transportation Plan identified the risk of flash flooding as a result of changing precipitation patterns due to climate change. Minnesota GO Vision & Statewide Multimodal Transportation Plan identified the risk of flash flooding as a result of changing precipitation patterns due to climate change. From 1958 to 2011, the Midwest has seen 45% increase in very heavy precipitation (NOAA) From 1958 to 2011, the Midwest has seen 45% increase in very heavy precipitation (NOAA)

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16 What happened?

17 Trunk Highway 210 East Park Entrance Jay Cooke17

18 Hwy 2 and 35 Proctor (near Duluth) 18

19 Project Objectives Better understand the trunk highway networks risk from flash flooding Better understand the trunk highway networks risk from flash flooding Identify cost-effect options to improve the networks resiliency Identify cost-effect options to improve the networks resiliency Support the development of Minnesotas first Transportation Asset Management Plan (TAMP) Support the development of Minnesotas first Transportation Asset Management Plan (TAMP) Provide feedback to FHWA on the Draft Framework Provide feedback to FHWA on the Draft Framework

20 Climate Change & Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Framework A guide for transportation agencies to assess vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events 3 key steps: 1.Define study assets and climate variables 2.Assess vulnerability 3.Incorporate results into decision making

21 Project Overview General systems-level vulnerability assessment of the trunk highway network in each districtGeneral systems-level vulnerability assessment of the trunk highway network in each district Timeline: September 2013 – February/March 2014 – Inform and supplement TAMP risk assessment Focused adaptation assessment for specific high- risk facilities identified in the system-level assessmentFocused adaptation assessment for specific high- risk facilities identified in the system-level assessment March 2014 – June/July 2014

22 Defining Vulnerability Climate change vulnerability in the transportation context is a function of a transportation systems exposure to climate effects, sensitivity to climate effects, and adaptive capacity. (Vulnerability Framework)

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24 Culvert Capacity Risk Mitigation Strategies: Culvert Capacity Risk Mitigation Strategies: –Check culvert capacity during all capital improvement projects, upsize when needed, and stop practice of replacing in kind w/o analysis. –Identify future projects in advance to do hydraulic analysis, purchase ROW, and obtain permits. Shelf ready means incorporation of fixes in short timeframe. Linking TAMP Risk Results and Adaptability to Climate Change

25 Culvert Failure/Collapse Risk Mitigation Strategies: Culvert Failure/Collapse Risk Mitigation Strategies: –Develop & implement system condition performance measure for replacement or repair of poor and very poor culverts –Culverts in poor and very poor condition are prioritized and replaced in construction/maintenance projects Linking TAMP Risk Results and Adaptability to Climate Change

26 Key Dates for the TAMP December 2013 – Expected Federal Rulemaking for Asset Management April Submittal of Draft TAMP to FHWA as part of pilot project October MAP 21 Deadline for Federally Approved TAMP