© Cargill Incorporated 2002 Weather Risk Management for Agriculture Michigan State University March 22, 2002 Cargill Risk Management

1 Weather is a Business Risk Recent Weather Related News Items: …Bullish hopes that a recent bout of hot and dry weather would hurt the quality of the 2001 crops were thrown aside following reports of a rainy, cool weekend in key corn and wheat growing regions ….. WSJ, May 22, 2001 …Hot, dry weather in August damaged the nation's corn crop, dropping the estimated harvest to the lowest in four years…. St. Louis Dispatch, September 15, 2001 Weather Problems Result in Bad Year for Michigan Wine Grape Growers….even before the growing season began, more than half of the buds of damage-prone wine grape varieties were killed by harsh winter temperatures in December….. Knight Ridder, October 20, 2001 The U.S. Department of Commerce estimates that up to $1 trillion of the $7 trillion U.S. economy is subject to weather risk.

Cargill Risk Management 2 Weather is a Business Risk That Can be Covered u The market for weather risk management products was established in late 1997 to help energy companies hedge volumetric risk and smooth revenue streams. It is quickly migrating to new industries as participants become familiar with the applications and benefits of these products. u Volume of transactions since market inception is roughly $10 billion. u Weather risk management tools are used by companies for protection against adverse weather conditions. u Companies no longer have to bet on good weather.

Cargill Risk Management 3 Weather Risk Management Products Weather risk management products are structured as customized financial instruments that allow companies to hedge weather-related revenue or margin exposure. WProtection generally for a season (winter/summer) or multiple seasons. WProtection is typically based on an average weather index during a season or on a specific weather event occurring during the season. WProtection is typically capped to reduce cost. WProtection can be tailored for a specific location or can be based on a basket of multiple locations. WProtection may be imbedded or combined with other risk management tools or into physical commodity contracts.

Cargill Risk Management 4 Weather Indices Temperature over period of time Temperature Extreme Rainfall Snowfall Snow cover River flow Wind speed Storm Activity (intensity, frequency) Misery Indices (wind chill, heat index) Frost/Freeze (if four hours below 28° then …) Combination/Multiple Triggers (if snow and temp then …) Customized Indices (multiple city baskets)

Cargill Risk Management 5 Weather Risks for Crop Yields 1) Excessive heat - persistent temperatures above certain thresholds are detrimental to crop. 2) Excessive cold – freeze/frost can harm planting and harvest. 3) Minimal precipitation - insufficient rainfall diminishes crop size. 4)Excessive precipitation – too much rainfall diminishes crop quality. Poor Yields Equal Poor Revenues………… Example -- For a 40 bu/ac drop in corn yield from expected: $0.10/bu * 250,000 acre * 40 bu/ac = $1,000,000 deficit

Cargill Risk Management 6 Extreme degree day = max(High Temp-86,0) Weather data from Lansing Station

Cargill Risk Management 7 Weather Protection Advantages –Historical Payouts correlate well with low yield years –Individual products are inexpensive Disadvantages –Protection from all weather extremes has its cost

Cargill Risk Management 8 Yield Protection Advantages –Direct Volume Protection Disadvantages –Cost is higher due to higher risk 3 county average APH = 116.6

Cargill Risk Management 9 Daily Weather Indices Advantages –Flexibility in structure, cost, and timing –Can be traded like any financial index –Immediate settlement –Can protect against short term quality issues as well as seasonal volume protection for specialty crops Disadvantages –Developmental Stages….

Cargill Risk Management 10 Contact us for more information: Michael Grover, Mgr. Weather Risk Products Ryan Williams, Ph.d. Weather Risk Products Cargill Risk Management

11 Quotes of the Day Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it. (Charles Dudley Warner,1897, Hartford Courant) Drought is part of the cycle, but when it comes youre never ready for it. (farmer of 33 years in Blue Springs, NE) Were retailers, not meteorologists, and as long as weather affects our business, we have to do something about it. (director of supply-chain strategy at Sears) I think the only thing we can do is pray for a very warm winter. (chief economist, Center for Global Energy Studies) For too long, businesses have cited bad weather as an excuse for under-performance. This excuse is no longer valid. (anonymous)