NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center A New Focus on Products and Services Where Americas Climate, Weather and Ocean Prediction Services Begin Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP Space Weather Workshop Boulder, CO April 30, 2008

Overview Future is now for Space Weather – Meeting space weather service needs of a rapidly growing user base SWPC positioning itself in the new era –Reorganized with a focus on customers, products, service delivery and R2O –Partnerships – need to leverage community assets –Accelerated pace of technology and science advances – need to facilitate R2O Challenges –Uncertain budget –Developing infrastructure for R2O – to accelerate R2O – must support O2R –Space-based Observations –IT facility issues

Growth of Space Weather Users and Customers NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Sunspot Cycles Commercial Space Transportation Airline Polar Flights Microchip technology Precision Guided Munitions Cell phones Atomic Clock Satellite Operations Carbon Dating experiments GPS Navigation Ozone Measurements Aircraft Radiation Hazard Commercial TV Relays Communications Satellite Orientation Spacecraft Charging Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote Sensing Instrument Damage Geophysical Exploration. Pipeline Operations Anti-Submarine Detection Satellite Power Arrays Power Distribution Long-Range Telephone Systems Radiation Hazards to Astronauts Interplanetary Satellite experiments VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN) Over the Horizon Radar Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites Research & Operations Requirements Satellite Orbit Prediction Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments Ionospheric Rocket experiments Short-wave Radio Propagation EACH MONTH AT SWPC 400,000 Unique Users 50,000,000 File Transfers 120 Countries Represented by Users 67,500,000 Web Hits 0.3 TBytes of Data Downloaded 2008

Plot does not include POES, GOES, and ACE real time solar wind data sets, (14 million file transfers per month) Over 1,000 event-driven products issued during solar minimum years 2006 & 2007 Over 6500 unique users subscribe to SWPCs web product services ~150 new users each month Increasing Space Weather Customers and Requirements

GPS users represent the fastest growing customer base for SWPC –Space weather is the largest error source for GPS –GPS used in drilling, surveying, agriculture, aviation, DoD operations, much more Fast-changing needs in aviation community –13 airlines will fly ~8,000 polar flights in 2008 –Transportation System (NextGen) - Wide-ranging transformation of national air transportation system will rely on satellite-based technology Growing Space Weather Needs

Space Weather Prediction Center Reorganization Align organizational structure with new fundamental emphasis on operations Forecast Office Development and Transition Research and Customer Requirements Space Weather Services Director Executive Officer Secretary Administrative and Technical Support Strategic Direction Team Transfer from OAR to NWS – January 2005 Bottoms-up Reorganization Activities Commence – August 2006 Name Change to Space Weather Prediction Center – July 2007 Reorganization Officially Effected – February 2008 Address the rapid changes in our user base Permit efficient and timely R2O Branch Section Office

The Future of Space Weather Partnerships: Research and R2O A US multi-agency partnership to enable, support, and perform the research and development for next generation space science and space weather models

Leverage Community Assets Strategy: Leverage External Research Activities Safeguarding Our Nations Advanced Technologies Coordination: National Space Weather Program

Customer-Centered and Partner-focused Private sector - Work with the private sector to augment or enhance NCEP products and services. - Leverage private sector technology innovations. Federal partners, Academic partners and the Research Community - Assess coordinate and share resources and capabilities. - Pursue focused research and modeling activities. - Utilize other partner observations. International partners - Share data, observations and expertise. - Share research results and actively participate in international research programs. Accelerate R2O transition through Test Bed approach

Future Space Weather Prediction Models : GFS/WAM/IDEA Geospace Model (~10 yrs?) NWP in coupled geospace? NWP in coupled geospace? DA in IDEA domain? DA in IDEA domain? Coupling with heliosphere? Coupling with heliosphere? Geospace GFS-2008 GFS-2008 Improved thermodynamics etc. Improved thermodynamics etc. TTO 2008 (3 FTE) TTO 2008 (3 FTE) D TTO ~2–3 yrs. D TTO ~2–3 yrs. WAM (~3 yrs.) Extend up to 600km Extend up to 600km Improved lower-atmospheric DA Improved lower-atmospheric DA Satellite drag products? Satellite drag products? WAM IDEA (~5 yrs.) Ionospheric NWP Ionospheric NWP Satellite drag prediction Satellite drag prediction Coupling with geospace? Coupling with geospace? IDEA

WAM Open GGCM RCM GIP Solar Wind IMF Solar Radiation OASIS Geospace Assimilative System to fuel OASIS Global Ionosphere Plasmasphere Rice Convection Model Whole Atmosphere Model Geospace Global Circulation Model

Budget –Sustain budget profile for SWPC Developing infrastructure for research-to-operations (R2O) – to accelerate R2O – must support O2R –Document NCEPs forecast systems to facilitate use by larger research community as part of O2R process –Collaborate on multi-model ensembles, and leverage developments from partners –Engage science community on SWPCs customer needs Observations Secure operational L1 solar wind monitor and coronagraph –Secure backup capability for GOES-10 XRS data stream Challenges

13 Challenges SWPC is designated as a National Critical System (NCS), and therefore has stringent security and reliability requirements - Complete C&A compliance measures for NCS Continuity of Operations requirements dictate the need for a backup system - NOAA and USAF sites are being considered

Space Weather Enterprise Forum This forum will focus on the costs of space weather impacts and the benefits of improved space weather services with an emphasis on the anticipated needs of the user community in

Summary SWPC is becoming fully integrated within NWS/NCEP service structure Pursuing requirements of a rapidly expanding user base Strengthening operational infrastructure Working towards the research to operations transitions needed to improve products and services in SWPC Will continue to work with the user and research community to advance the SWPC Working the budget issue for FY

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists 5 NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory Construction Start09-May-07 Move StartMay 09 Move CompleteJanuary 10 Revised Construction Schedule

Appendix

New SWPC Product in 2008 D-region Absorption over Poles Meeting the Needs of the Aviation Community Existing product includes no measure of absorption over the Poles New product will define absorption at low and high latitudes

Future SWx Prediction Models: USTEC to GEOTEC Europe (EUREF) IHY-Africa GPS occultations