Daniel Ross EAS 4480 April 28, 2011. What is the Arctic Oscillation? What is severe weather? Methods The Analysis Results Conclusion.

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Presentation transcript:

Daniel Ross EAS 4480 April 28, 2011

What is the Arctic Oscillation? What is severe weather? Methods The Analysis Results Conclusion

A Severe Weather Event for this study will be those events that had more than two confirmed Severe Thunderstorms This is determined by using the NWSs Six Trees Method

Start: 2870 total warnings Period: From March 2005 to March 2011 Not evenly spaced Combined all events for a month into one number Arctic Oscillation Index was collected on a monthly basis for the same time period.

Storm Reports (Last 6 years) 60 events chosen AOI Measurements (Last 50 years) Hypotheses: Null: The AO- doesnt affect severe weather Alternative: The AO- increases the number of severe weather events

A Students T-test was performed first. It returned a p-value of practically 0 for NOT overturning the null hypothesis.

Corr Coef=

There is no conclusive evidence that the Arctic Oscillation Index is correlated with the amount of severe weather throughout the year. In future studies, the correlation between the number of cold weather events and the Arctic Oscillation should be studied.

cillation.html cillation.html global-climate-patterns_x.htm global-climate-patterns_x.htm zing-the-arctic-oscillation/ zing-the-arctic-oscillation/ cip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml cip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml