Traffic Volatility in FABEC Geoffroy Ville, DSNA, Chairman SC OPS WAC 2018

... defines the level of variation/fluctuation over time. Definitions ... defines the level of variation/fluctuation over time. ... is the degree to which a correct prediction or forecast can be made either qualitatively or quantitatively. ? volatility vs. (un)predictability When traffic forecasts show possible strong fluctuations, a higher volatility leads to a higher unpredictability

A few examples (profile) “Creative” horizontal or vertical profiles Sharp turns “Yoyo” flight

A few examples (route) “Creative” route leads to sudden change in sector sequence

A few examples (effect on sector load) Sudden increase on sector load

Impact of volatility on ANSPs Different domains inducing volatility Traffic forecast inaccuracy (STATFOR) => Influence capacity plans Unit Rates => Traffic shifts ATFM => Unpredictability leads to lowering of capacities Staffing => possible shortage leading to sector configuration changes FUA => Mil. activity and Civ. flight planning not always in line Aircraft Operators => CFSP errors or crews not informed of updated PLN Weather => Global warming and increase of adverse weather situations Limits of IFPS => no What-If (so delete, refile), no detailed error messages Challenge for ANSPs: Traffic volatility and unpredictability requires higher flexibility! Critical when reaching capacity limits Need to measure “volatility” (present not planned, shift in time)