Marine Ecological Climate Services The feasible and the useful Mark R Payne mpay@aqua.dtu.dk @MarkPayneAtWork

? ? ? ”Climate data is not climate information” - Francisco Doblas-Reyes Scientists End-users ? ? Climate Services ?

Prediction has a long history of failure in fisheries science 1 out of 49 recruitment-environment correlations ”survived” 10 years 15 out of 1250 fish stocks incorporate environmental information in tactical management Myers, Rev. Fish Biol. Fish. 1998 Skern-Mauritzen et al, Fish Fish. 2015

Review of existing marine ecological forecast systems /climate services Payne MR et al. (2017) Lessons from the First Generation of Marine Ecological Forecast Products. Front. Mar. Sci. 4:289. doi:10.3389/fmars.2017.00289

Key Lessons Find balance between what is feasible and what is useful Co-production is absolutely essential

Understanding user needs S2D Tommasi et al 2017 Prog. Ocean.

The Blue Action Approach ”Throw the net widely…”

The Blue Action Approach Groups of end-users Fishing industry Scientists Advice and management of fish stocks Monitoring of fish stocks Members of the public Conservation organisations

Fishing Industry Pelagic Freezer Trawler Association Timing of spawning of herring in the English Channel When should we go fishing? Combining industry-generated data with scientific surveys 2012 2013 December January ”Normal” ”Late”

Fishing Industry Danish Pelagic Producers Organisation Sandeel Important feed stock for fish oil / fish meal Highly variable resource Timing of emergence from hibernation

Members of the Public Recreational Anglers: ”Fangstjournal”

Members of the Public Recreational Anglers: ”Fangstjournal” Forecasting of Garfish Migration

Conservation Organisations Yellow-Eyed Penguins, New Zealand Drives large ecotourism industry ~NZ$100 million Endangered species ~4000 individuals Survival linked to SST Projected extinction by 2050 Exploring potential of using SST forecasts to prepare adaptation measures

Scientists Generation of Scientific Advice Productivity predictions of North Sea herring Incorporate directly into management system (deadline 15 Feb !!) Productivity

Scientists Monitoring of Fish Populations Distribution of Blue Whiting

Monitoring of blue whiting stock Expanded distribution Compacted distribution Monitoring of blue whiting stock 2007 2013

Mechanisms underlying blue whiting distribution Scientific Survey (Adults) Larval Data

A new climate service! Forecast blue whiting distribution for March 2018

A new climate service! Forecast blue whiting distribution for March 2018

Mark R Payne mpay@aqua.dtu.dk @MarkPayneAtWork Marine Ecological Climate Services Have gathered a broad suite of end-users and potential forecast products Now perform exploratory analyses – expect that some (many?) will fail But we already have our first success! Mark R Payne mpay@aqua.dtu.dk @MarkPayneAtWork

Finally, looking towards the future… Horizon 2020 - BG-07-2019-2020 The Future of Seas and Oceans Flagship Initiative [B] 2019 - Observations and forecasting 23 Jan 2019 “….The inclusion of forecasting tools (for example to protect aquaculture installations or to inform fisheries decision making) shall be an advantage…”

Acknowledgements The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013) under grant agreement number 308299 (NACLIM project) and Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 727852