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Simply Put Our Action Plan Is: 1) Determine the up or down trend of the overall market. 2) Define what securities we are suitable for the client. 3) Determine point of entry. 4) Determine point of exit based upon our system’s embedded sell strategy. We believe it’s important when investing to have a strategic plan of action. The first thing we want to do is, determine the up or down trend of the overall market. Second, we want to define what securities we are willing to own. Third, we have to determine the point when we are willing to buy. Finally, and most important, determine a point we would sell. We believe this process should be mechanical in nature to avoid common investing mistakes that come when people invest with their emotions.

“Don’t invest in something unless you understand it” Paul Merriman Paul Merriman is a well known trend following investor. He says, “Don’t ever invest in something unless you understand it.” We completely agree with him. We believe transparency is important when it comes to investing. If at any point you don’t understand what we are trying to do, please let us know so we can go back and explain it again, so that you fully understand it.

This chart from dshort.com helps illustrate the concept of trend following. This represents a 10 month simple moving average. Each dot represents the closing price of the S&P 500 at the close of the month. The blue line is the 10 month moving average. When the market closes above the trend line, the market is technically in an up-trend. When the market closes below the trend line, the market is technically in a down-trend. The down side to this process is that it sometimes gives investors false signals, or whipsaws. In these events, we sometimes have to get out of the market and then get right back in a month later, at a higher price. This is the price a trend follower is willing to pay to avoid the large drawdown's that were experienced during 2000-2003 and November 2007-June 2009. As you can see, there is no emotion in the process.

Historical Trends: Secular Bear This chart, from RYDEX, illustrates the history of secular bull and bear markets. The green represents secular bull markets and the red represents secular bear markets. Within the secular trends are the shorter cyclical bull and bear trends. As you can see on the graph, the secular markets can last for an extremely long period of time. From a historical perspective we remain within a longer secular bear market. If we look back to the last time this happened, from 1966-1982, you can see that the market was essentially flat. During that period, our country faced recessions, Watergate, Vietnam, The Arab Oil Embargo, an energy crisis, high unemployment, and high interest rates.

2-10 Double If the 2 month moving average trend line > 10 month moving average trend line It is most often beneficial to be invested in stocks If the 2 month moving average trend line <10 month moving average trend line It is most often beneficial to avoid being invested in stocks. When we are looking at the 2-10 Double Moving Average Crossover Chart, if the 2 month moving average trend line moves upward through the 10 month moving average trend line, as they are now, it is most often beneficial to be invested in stocks. Conversely, when the 2 month moving average trend line moves down through the 10 month moving average trend line, it is most often beneficial to avoid being invested in stocks.

When we are looking at the 2-10 Double Moving Average Crossover Chart, if the 2 month moving average trend line moves upward through the 10 month moving average trend line, as they are now, it is most often beneficial to be invested in stocks. Conversely, when the 2 month moving average trend line moves down through the 10 month moving average trend line, it is most often beneficial to avoid being invested in stocks. When we are looking at the 2-10 Double Moving Average Crossover Chart, if the 2 month moving average trend line moves upward through the 10 month moving average trend line, as they are now, it is most often beneficial to be invested in stocks. Conversely, when the 2 month moving average trend line moves down through the 10 month moving average trend line, it is most often beneficial to avoid being invested in stocks.

This chart is another trend following chart This chart is another trend following chart. The blue represents the 10 month moving average, and the green represents the most recent 2 months moving average. Using the 2 month moving average has historically reduced the number of whipsaw trades that using that 10 month simple moving average alone would have created. This shows the periods that we would have been in and periods in which we would have been out using the 2-10 DMAC (double moving average crossover) Source: Yahoo.com

No strategy can guarantee profit or protect against a loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Securities offered through LPL Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC