Chapter 30 WEATHER FORECASTING & SEVERE WEATHER Severe Wx BFRB Pages Wx Forecasting Pages

FORECASTING

Station Models Used on weather maps to show the current weather conditions for a particular location Used on weather maps to show the current weather conditions for a particular location They are easy to read and understand They are easy to read and understand ESRTS Page 13 Bottom ESRTS Page 13 Bottom

The circle at the center shows the amount of cloud cover The circle at the center shows the amount of cloud cover The flag pole coming out of the circle shows the direction that the wind is coming from The flag pole coming out of the circle shows the direction that the wind is coming from Each flag shows approximate wind speed. A half flag shows an approx. 5 knot wind, and a whole flag shows an approx. 10 knot wind Each flag shows approximate wind speed. A half flag shows an approx. 5 knot wind, and a whole flag shows an approx. 10 knot wind *Add up the amount for all of the flags to get the total wind speed *Add up the amount for all of the flags to get the total wind speed

Air pressure is shown by using the last 3 digits of the pressure in millibars (coded) Air pressure is shown by using the last 3 digits of the pressure in millibars (coded) – Ex mb = 186 on the station model To determine the air pressure from the numbers on the station model, use the following rule: (aka to decode) To determine the air pressure from the numbers on the station model, use the following rule: (aka to decode) – If the first number is 5 or less, put a 10 in front of it – If the first number is 6 or higher, put a 9 in front of it – Put the decimal point between the last two numbers

Ex. 892 for air pressure on the station model Ex. 892 for air pressure on the station model The first number (8) is greater than 5, so I will put a 9 in front of it (becomes 9892) The first number (8) is greater than 5, so I will put a 9 in front of it (becomes 9892) Then I put the decimal between the last two numbers (becomes 989.2mb) Then I put the decimal between the last two numbers (becomes 989.2mb) The correct air pressure is 989.2mb from the number 892 on the station model The correct air pressure is 989.2mb from the number 892 on the station model **Remember, surface air pressure is usually between 960mb – 1050mb **Remember, surface air pressure is usually between 960mb – 1050mb If your answer is not in this range, then it is wrong. Check your work! If your answer is not in this range, then it is wrong. Check your work!

Encode this weather data: Cross River – Cloudy, 61°F, 58° DP, 8.0 mile visibility, inches falling, wind speed 9 mph, from SW \ 0

88 ¼ \.35 Decode this Station Model!!!

SEVERE WEATHER

Thunderstorms small area storms formed by the strong upward movement of warm, moist air small area storms formed by the strong upward movement of warm, moist air usually occurs ahead of a cold front as the colder, denser air shoves the warmer air upward usually occurs ahead of a cold front as the colder, denser air shoves the warmer air upward This forms the cumulonimbus clouds that produce thunderstorms This forms the cumulonimbus clouds that produce thunderstorms These storms are accompanied by heavy rain, thunder, lightning, sometimes hail, and can also produce tornadoes These storms are accompanied by heavy rain, thunder, lightning, sometimes hail, and can also produce tornadoes

All thunderstorms produce lightning All thunderstorms produce lightning Lightning is the discharge of huge amounts of static electricity (think of walking across a carpet in your socks and then touching something-ZAP) Lightning is the discharge of huge amounts of static electricity (think of walking across a carpet in your socks and then touching something-ZAP) Lightning can travel from the cloud to the ground, cloud to cloud, or even from the ground to a cloud! Lightning can travel from the cloud to the ground, cloud to cloud, or even from the ground to a cloud! Thunder is the result of the air quickly expanding from the heat of the lightning bolt (causes a sound wave) Thunder is the result of the air quickly expanding from the heat of the lightning bolt (causes a sound wave) You cannot have lightning without thunder and vise versa!! You cannot have lightning without thunder and vise versa!!

Supercell Thunderstorm formations – will form SEVERE storms and tornadoes! THIS IS ONE BIG STORM SYSTEM!

Tornadoes Form from very powerful thunderstorms (cumulonimbus clouds) Form from very powerful thunderstorms (cumulonimbus clouds) These are funnel shaped columns of spiraling winds that extend down to the ground from the base of a cloud These are funnel shaped columns of spiraling winds that extend down to the ground from the base of a cloud The winds move into a tornado (low pressure), and can reach a maximum of 318 mph! The winds move into a tornado (low pressure), and can reach a maximum of 318 mph! The actual funnel is made by water droplets (clouds) and dust The actual funnel is made by water droplets (clouds) and dust

Tornadoes are especially dangerous because it is so difficult to predict where they will form Tornadoes are especially dangerous because it is so difficult to predict where they will form Damage is usually along a narrow path where the tornado traveled Damage is usually along a narrow path where the tornado traveled They usually last less than one hour They usually last less than one hour Most fatalities are caused by flying debris Most fatalities are caused by flying debris Tornadoes are rated on the Fujita scale (F0 – F6) Tornadoes are rated on the Fujita scale (F0 – F6) An F6 is very rare, and can have wind speeds up to 318 mph An F6 is very rare, and can have wind speeds up to 318 mph

There are seven levels in the Fujita scale, F0 - F6.

NEW YORK TORNADOES!

Tornadoes will pick up dust and debris from the ground when they touch down – this creates a wider swirl at the bottom of the tornado

Hurricanes Huge tropical low pressure systems that get their energy from the tremendous amount of warm ocean water that is evaporated and condenses inside the storm Huge tropical low pressure systems that get their energy from the tremendous amount of warm ocean water that is evaporated and condenses inside the storm Hurricanes MUST form over open warm ocean water (WARM WATER = FUEL) Hurricanes MUST form over open warm ocean water (WARM WATER = FUEL) VIF - Since this is where it gets its energy from, hurricanes weaken as they pass over land or colder water VIF - Since this is where it gets its energy from, hurricanes weaken as they pass over land or colder water

Since hurricanes are extreme low pressure storms, the winds blow into the storm, and it spins counter-clockwise (to the left) Since hurricanes are extreme low pressure storms, the winds blow into the storm, and it spins counter-clockwise (to the left) The lowest air pressures on Earth have been recorded inside the eye of hurricanes The lowest air pressures on Earth have been recorded inside the eye of hurricanes Hurricanes are associated with very high winds and heavy rains Hurricanes are associated with very high winds and heavy rains Storm surge is the term used for the water that a hurricane blows onto the shore, causing severe flooding Storm surge is the term used for the water that a hurricane blows onto the shore, causing severe flooding – Spring Tides = more severe flooding – Neap Tides = less severe flooding

Most fatalities are caused by drowning in the storm surge (many foolish people do not evacuate areas when told to do so)!! Most fatalities are caused by drowning in the storm surge (many foolish people do not evacuate areas when told to do so)!! A tropical storm is designated a hurricane when its winds reach 74 mph and vice versa. A tropical storm is designated a hurricane when its winds reach 74 mph and vice versa. Hurricanes are classified as Category 1 – Category 5 (strongest) Hurricanes are classified as Category 1 – Category 5 (strongest) All hurricanes are named in each ocean in alphabetical order, alternating male and female names All hurricanes are named in each ocean in alphabetical order, alternating male and female names Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans all have their own names for their Hurricane Seasons!!! Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans all have their own names for their Hurricane Seasons!!!

The Eyewall of a Hurricane

Airforce Meteo planes fly through Eyewalls of Hurricanes to collect data to help meteorologists determine where a Hurricane will travel to

Hurricane damage can range from broken windows to complete demolition of buildings. Until Katrina, Andrew was the costliest hurricane to date for the USA with a price tag of over $20 BILLION! Katrina is now estimated to have a $200 BILLION price tag!!!