3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting

Item II-2 Euro-SICS detailed analysis How really good the database is Item II-2 Euro-SICS detailed analysis How really good the database is ? by Dominique Ladiray, Francesca Nugnes, Marco Picciolo (Doc 026/00) 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

A statistical description of the database in few points Coverage Availability of long time series Missing or anomalous values How to define a “good” quality indicator ? Timeliness and Punctuality The near future of the Euro-SICS database 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Number of indicators in the ESICS database by domains An alive database ! 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Distribution of active series in the ESICS database by domains and length 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Some important figures (7 July 2000) 7600 active series in 14 domains 51% monthly series, 49% quarterly series 48% of series of 15 years and more but only 10% for the European aggregates 97% of series are reliable 12 domains have all the expected metadata for the EU and Eurozone aggregates 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Some difficulties to define a quality indicator The example of Timeliness For a figure, 5 different dates The reference period (d1 = Nov 99) The date it has been published by the Member State (d2 = 23 Dec 99) - Calendar ? The date it appears in Euro-SICS (d3 = 7 Jan 00) - NA The date of the last update of the domain the series belongs to (d4 = 9 Jan 00) The date of the database quality control (d5 = 15 Jan 00) 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Some quality indicators can be defined Timeliness : d2 - d1 = 23 days Euro-SICS delay : d3 - d2 = 15 days Freshness : d5 - d1 = 46 days At the moment, we can easily measure Freshness, and Delay = d4 - d1 = 40 days 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Distribution of series within the ESICS database by frequency and delays in number of days Average delay, in number of days, according to the frequency of the series available in the ESICS database 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

The near future of the Euro-SICS database An Editorial Committee Improvement of coverage and quality Length of series Labour Force Surveys A DG ECFIN Domain with Qualitative Business Surveys ? Best quality Indicators Study of series revisions Member States Metadata Monitoring Reports Calendars (release, holidays and working days) 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Item II-3 Comparison between Euro-SICS and MEI of the OECD by Gian Luigi Mazzi, Marco Picciolo (Doc 027/00) 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Why MEI (Main Economic Indicators)? Similar aim Different coverage Series length Sufficient comparability of the indicators Timeliness 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

MEI considers 15 domains to cover short-term indicators, the comparison is based on 8 domains 1. National Accounts 2. Industrial production 3.Producer prices 4. Construction 5. Labour market (5A other labour market) 6. Employment 7. Unemployment 8. Balance of payments 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Which are the differences? 1. Level of disaggregation Higher in Euro-SICS 2. Approaches of the two «organisations» MEI: 29 countries with different economies Euro-SICS: 15 countries with similar economies 3. Coverage MEI consider indicators as supplied by MS Euro-SICS mostly harmonised figures 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Some series could be included in Euro-SICS Other Labour market Job vacancies / Strikes / working days lost Constructions Work in progress Work in put in place Work in started Work in completed 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Long time Series Timeliness MEI has longer time series than Euro-SICS National concept Legal acts Timeliness Euro-SICS updated twice a day MEI update once a week even if... some exceptions exist 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Considerations Euro-SICS on CD-ROM PAPER VERSION 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Item II-5 Euro-SICS quality report by Dominique Ladiray, Francesca Nugnes (Doc 030/00, 031/00) 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

A measurement of data quality An analysis guided by user’s needs satisfaction Propositions for monitoring reports depending on the need for information of Users Member States Domain managers (Eurostat) Committee of Directors (Eurostat) 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Data Quality measured according to the 7 components of Quality adopted by Eurostat Relevance Accuracy Timeliness and Punctuality Accessibility and Clarity Comparability Coherence Completeness 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Five main quality indicators An indicator of completeness (active series) An indicator of relevance (active series, 15 years or more An indicator of accuracy (reliable series) An indicator of timeliness (max 60-day delay) An indicator of clarity (metadata) To complete the measurement/description of data quality A Global Quality Index will be computed on the base of the average of these five indicators The evolution of monthly extractions from the Euro-SICS database will be provided 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

A Monitoring Report for the Member States Representative 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Main quality indicators by country - Euro-SICS 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Main quality indicators by country - Euro-SICS (continue) 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Item II-6 METADATA for Euro-SICS by Anders Lindqvist, Marco Pellegrino (Doc 032/00, 032A/00, 035/00, 036/00,037/00) 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Metadata posted on the IMF’s DSBB - by EU country (Basic Info and Summary Methodology) 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Metadata for national series IMF Series download available information first draft of SDDS checking and validation by MS loading into Euro-SICS non-IMF Series first draft of SDDS within Eurostat 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Item II-7 Statistical development for Euro-SICS and Euro-Trend project by Gian Luigi Mazzi and Dominique Ladiray (Doc 033/00) 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Short-term statistics Introduction (1) BEFORE Harmonisation Precision Structural data € AFTER Timeliness Estimation Short-term statistics 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Introduction (2) Double challenge for Eurostat in the field of short-term analysis reliable short-term indicators for Member States as well as for the Euro-zone and the European Union quasi-real time data for economic and monetary policy Two main projects Euro-SICS Euro-TREND 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Statistical problems for the construction of Euro-zone totals (1) Traditional strategy collect harmonised data from Member States aggregate them Non-optimal strategy for short-term analysis harmonisation instead timeliness harmonisation as source of breaks Our strategy reliable, accurate and long time series estimation techniques 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Statistical problems for the construction of Euro-zone totals (2) Backcasting too short harmonised data at least two cycles needed by users inability of Member States to provide soon back-recalculated figures back-recalculation via econometric or statistical methods is needed Different scenarios for backcasting Unavailability of any high frequency information Availability of some related information Backcasting with benchmark 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Statistical problems for the construction of Euro-zone totals (3) Construction of unavailable indicators a) unavailability of indicators due to lack of information from the Member States b) unavailability of indicators at a desired frequency 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Open problems for the Euro-zone short-term statistical system (1) Considerations Euro-zone is a new economic subject to play an active role on international economic scenario timely information is needed timeliness can be viewed as an indicator of credibility Situation reduction of the delays for Euro-zone statistics progress made not yet sufficient Main areas of improvement timeliness of Euro-zone figures availability of synthetic coincident and leading indicators analysis of business cycle characteristics of the Euro-zone 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Open problems for the Euro-zone short-term statistical system (2) 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Some problems related to the short-term analysis of the Euro-zone (1) Nowcasting Analysis of revisions Seasonal adjustment Business cycle extraction Leading indicators and turning points 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Some problems related to the short-term analysis of the Euro-zone (2) Nowcasting - reasons need of improving timeliness utilisation of all available information from different areas increasing request from ECB and other users statisticians must do their best to achieve this objective Nowcasting statistical tools temporal disaggregation techniques transfer function or dynamic regression models VAR models state space models non linear model (artificial neural networks, long memory process, etc) structural time series models Eurostat activities comparative analysis of different tools 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Some problems related to the short-term analysis of the Euro-zone (3) Analysis of revisions a) statistical analysis b) econometric analysis Seasonal adjustment ECB and Eurostat recommendations Eurostat recommendations concerning seasonal adjustment policy ECB Task Force on Seasonal Adjustment, Final Report agreement on the utilisation of X-12 and TRAMO/SEATS Euro-zone seasonal adjustment direct approach, indirect approach aggregation of national seasonal adjusted data multivariate seasonal adjustment empirical comparison of different approaches more smoothed figures from direct approach higher instability of seasonal factors 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Some problems related to the short-term analysis of the Euro-zone (4) Business cycle extraction crucial questions is there an Euro-zone business cycle emerging from the EMU construction? can we explain it from national cycles? a Common European Business Cycle synchronisation of European business cycles Leading indicators and turning points aim give a synthetic view of the economy or of a specific macroeconomic variables satisfy a lack of information increase timeliness of information different types of leading indicators traditional ones, statistical ones Euro-SICS Detailed Analysis How really good the database is ? by Dominique Ladiray, Francesca Nugnes, Marco Picciolo 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Item II-8 Euro-SICS in CIRCA by Sylvie Da Silva (Doc 032/00) 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Euro-SICS in CIRCA (1) An extranet tool which enables an Interest Group to Navigate trough the library and view the sections it contains Share information/document in quasi real time (user can be automatically notified by e-mail of any change) Download the content of a selected file, e.g. Euro-SICS meetings documents Data by country or by domain Metadata 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Euro-SICS in CIRCA (2) In the future creation of new sections Series with problems by country Euro-SICS monitoring report Euro-SICS news letter A forum discussion among Users of the IG For any information…Please contact me Password / user-id 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

Item III-1 Opening Euro-SICS to the public by Valérie Guillemet (Doc 040/00) 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000

‘Dissemination policy for Euro-sics’-Working Party of the 3-07-00 Participants Description of the project Positioning Branding User needs Tools of dissemination Pricing Others subjects... 3rd Euro-SICS Working Group meeting, 10th July 2000