WIOD Consortium Meeting Sevilla, 25 – 26, May, 2011 Trade Embodied CO2 Emissions with Private Consumption Feedback Effects Kurt Kratena Ignazio Mongelli Gerhard Streicher

Trade embodied CO2 emissions Literature and research questions Extensive literature, using multi-regional input-output models (e.g. OECD: Ahmad, Wyckoff, 2003 and Nakano, Okamura, Sakurai, Suzuku, Tojo, Yamano, 2009) National trade emission balances in a multiregional framework (Serrano, Dietzenbacher, 2008) Motivation: shifting from production-based to consumption-based CO2 accounting  why leaving out ‘induced’ consumption? Production for exports generates income  energy use and CO2 in households and production Extending the static IO model to a type II model with a calibrated consumption block: Consumption patterns are very different across countries, both in a static as well as in a dynamic perspective

Trade embodied CO2 emissions Main building blocks of the extended model Multi-regional input-output model based on WIOD dataset Dynamic consumption model (durables/non-durables) for EU countries (Kratena, Mongelli, Wueger) Dynamic consumption model for China (Cuihong, et al., 2010) Simple dynamic models (calibration) for other WIOD countries  Type II input-output model with endogenous and exogenous private consumption and dynamic reaction patterns in consumption Linking environmental satellite accounts of WIOD to energy use in consumption and production

Trade embodied CO2 emissions Model applications Calculation of time series of ‘augmented’ national CO2 trade balances (exports and imports) Calculation of time series of ‘augmented’ bilateral CO2 trade balances, e.g. China vis á vis EU …………………………………………………. ……………..