The Reality of Climate Change and its Impact on Water Production of Hydro systems in Iran Prof. H.Sedghi Member of Academy 1

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First : Real or Actual Climate Change : Universal and natural climate variation based on Energy balance of Sun – Atmosphere and Earth including spatial contribution. This change is obviously periodic and reversible. 3

Second Climate change based on development activities: : Any man interference in nature even if it is called sustainable. (Sustainable development is not possible in a sensible climate region). 4

Third: Potential Climate Change or Probable Climate Change: Irreversible change based on global evolution of almost a single meteorological parameter (air temperature). known as Global warming. 5

The General Definition of Climate : 1- Climatology: Encompasses behavior of temperature and humidity in a geographical perimeter. 2- Hydrology: Encompasses resultant of numerical values of all natural parameters presenting the climate as a variable. 6

Sciences dealing with water production on earth Geography Climatology Meteorology Hydrometeorology Hydrology Groundwater hydrology Surface water hydrology 7

Surface Water Hydrology Which is the most applicable science for water production in the nature. And the other sciences seems to be auxiliary tools for solving the related problems. 8

Processes transforming climate to water: 1- Natural Processes 2- Mathematical Simulated Processes 9

A parallel presentation of two processes is: Based on weather and climate data national centers for environmental prediction. National weather service, NOAA. Hydrological data processing of a major hydro systems in Iran. 10

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An example of several meteorological parameters as point time variables 12

Air Masses generation in north hemisphere 13 IRAN

PRINCIPAL PERIMETERS OF AIR MOISTURE SUPPLY OF IRAN IN THE NORTH HEMISPHER 14

Principal trajectory of moisture into Iran 15

Random distribution of air moisture in the trajectory 16

Alborz orography as a random target 17

Zagross orography as a random target 18

Surface water Generation Zone and Water Use Perimeters 19 Caspian Sea Persian Golf

Coordinates of five principal Rivers Generating 50 percent of lumped S.W. Production of Iran. 20 Caspian Sea Persian Golf

Water Production Zone Transient Zone Consumption Zone Water Production Zone Transient Zone Consumption Zone Water Production, Transient and Consumption Zones 21 Legend

Annuals Variation of Estimated Volume in BCM JELOGIR KARKHE TALE ZANG DEZ ARMAND KARUN MARGHAK BAZOFT BARZ KHERSAN Legend 22

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Daily hydrographs of P.shalu for 1992 and

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سيلاب هاي ٧٢-٧١ در پل شالو 29

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Climate Change based on Development Development Activities: 1. Dam and Reservoir construction 2. Change the regime of surface flow 3. Water use for any kind of consumption 4. Satisfy the growing demand, and briefly man interference in any phase any components of Hydrologic Balance or 31

In Some Climates such as Middle-East Only a simple interference could destroy the whole Ecosystem. Example: Mesopotamian system had experienced its Irreversible Retrograded Evolution since the Apparition of the first Dam in the Environmental countries. The Result: A Real Climate Change 32

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Briefly Climate change and consequently Water quantity and quality change is real and permanent in our hydro systems. Only the natural change and man made one are detectable by real and measured available data. 35

36 Briefly The climatic scenarios based on Ultra scale natural simulation models are useful if a deterministic correlation between climatic parameters and Water quantity and Water quality could be available. Enough Clean Water or Optimal Clean Air ? We have to choose one, if both of theme may be an other time.

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With many Thanks to my Ph.D Students: H. Khedmati H. Khedmati H. Rahmati H. Rahmati M. M. Sabaghi M. M. Sabaghi