Kathryn Stewart Prevention Research Center

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Presentation transcript:

Worldwide Trends in Impaired Driving: Past Experience and Future Progress Kathryn Stewart Prevention Research Center Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation Berkeley, California

1980s: Impressive Declines 50% in the Great Britain 28 % in Canada 28% in The Netherlands 32% in Australia 37% in Germany 26% in the U.S. These declines did not continue in the early part of the 1990s 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. Mixed Results in 1990s In some countries, increases in the early 1990s. In middle and later 1990s, some decreases occurred. Decreases at a slower rate than the dramatic decreases in the 1980s. At the end of the 1990s and in the new century, the record has been mixed. 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Drinking and Driving Worldwide Recent Trends Three groups of countries: Continued decline Decline halted - no clear trend Decline halted - major increase 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Drinking and Driving Worldwide Recent Trends Continued decline: France Germany 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Drinking and Driving: Recent Trends Decline halted - no clear trend: Australia Canada The Netherlands Great Britain United States 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Drinking and Driving: Recent Trends Decline halted - major increase: Sweden 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. Australia - Trends Decrease in fatally injured drivers/riders above the legal limit: 44 percent in 1981 to 30 percent in 1992. Decrease in the percentage of drivers in roadside breath alcohol surveys above .08% from 1979 to 1992. Decline in alcohol consumption. 26 percent from 1981-1983 to 1991. Marked change in beer drinking, with low alcohol beer assuming an increasing proportion of beer sales. Source: McLean, TRB Circular 422 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. Australia - Trends The reductions through 1992 resulted from: Widespread use of random breath testing Formal and informal publicity about drink driving Other factors, including the increased use in seat belts (now close to 100 percent), and other vehicle safety measures Not much progress since 1992 Source: McLean, TRB Circular 422 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. Canada - Trends 1991 to 1999: percentage of fatally injured drivers positive for alcohol down by 40% (from 1,000 to 600) Since 1999, slow, steady increase. 1999: percent of fatally injured drivers with positive BACs was 33% Since 1999, the percentage has varied from 35% to 38% Source: Mayhew 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. France - Trends Fatally injured victims in alcohol-related crashes reduced from: 11,946 in 1983 10,289 in 1990 - drop of 14% 7,242 in 2002 - drop of 30% Progress attributed to massive alcohol screening enforcement – 9.7 million breath test in 2000 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. France - Trends French policies and public attitudes have changed radically The new policy includes: dramatically stronger enforcement of speed limits - 1,000 speed cameras installed, tougher penalties, and heavy media campaigns designed to stigmatize road violations as “road violence” and “road delinquency.” Assailly, T2007 paper 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. France - Trends This new policy, (July 2002) has: Decreased traffic fatalities by 30% in three years, from approximately 8,000 per year to approximately 5,000 per year. Decreased injuries (from approximately 150,000 per year to approximately 100,000 per year today). Assailly, T2007 paper 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. France - Trends Target of new policy was speed, not impaired driving Proportion of alcohol related fatalities declined: 31% to 28% Prevalence of positive BAC among all drivers unchanged (About 2.4%). One logical conclusion: as drivers drive more slowly, crashes are less severe, fewer fatalities occur. Assailly, T2007 paper 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. Germany - Trends From 1995 to 2005 crash fatalities declined from 9,454 to 5,361 – a drop of 43% Alcohol related fatalities declined from 1,716 to 603 – drop of 65% The share of alcohol related fatalities declined from 18.2% to 11.2% - a drop of 38% 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

The Netherlands -Trends Between 1970 and 1999 the proportion of drivers with a BAC above 0.5 g/l in weekend nights dropped from 15% to 4.3%. Downward trend occurred after police enforcement was intensified. Between1999 and 2005, studies show a stable proportion of alcohol related fatalities. Houwing, T2007 presentation 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. Great Britain - Trends In the 1980s and early 1990s fatalities and serious injuries in drivers over the legal limit fell from 9,000 to 4,000. In the past ten years, no over-riding trend. Those killed in drink-drive crashes fell to a low of 460 in 1998. But number has risen to 590 in 2004. Roadside screening breath tests: 815,000 in 1998 but declined steadily since to 534,000 in 2003. Source: Road Casualties Great Britain 2004 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. Great Britain- Driver Fatalities with BACs >0.08% & Number of Breath Tests 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. United States - Trends Alcohol-related fatalities fell from 26,173 in 1982 to 16,673 in 1997 – a drop of 36% Percentage of alcohol-related fatalities fell from 60% to 40% - a drop of 33%. Since 1997, there has been no clear trend. 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. United States - Trends In 2006: 17,941 alcohol-related fatalities – 41% of the total fatalities up from 40 % in 2005 and 39% in 2003 and 2004. 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. Sweden - Trends Alcohol-related fatalities declined sharply from 31% in 1989 to 18% in 1997 Decline due to: lowering legal BAC limit to 0.02% in 1990 massive increase in enforcement (random breath test increased from 600,000 to 1.8 million in 1994) new resources for campaigns and tougher penalties 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. Sweden - Trends Gradual loss of restrictive alcohol policies upon joining the EU in 1996 Increase in total alcohol consumption 30% reduction of police enforcement Weaker sentencing Resources for campaigns cut in half 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. Sweden The result – Alcohol-related fatalities climbed steadily from 18% in 1997 to 29% in 2004 – a 61% increase 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Sweden: Total Fatalities and Proportion of Involving Alcohol 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% Total Fatalities % Alcohol-Related 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. Trends: Conclusions Most industrialized countries saw declines in total road fatalities and alcohol-related fatalities in the 1980s and early 1990s In many countries progress has stalled or even reversed 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. Trends: Conclusions A number of countries found a strong link between levels of enforcement and alcohol-related fatalities 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. Future Progress Technology applications: Alcohol Interlocks 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. Alcohol Interlocks 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. Alcohol Interlocks Shown effective to reduce recidivism Increasingly used for offenders – even after first offense Also in use for commercial and public transport 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. Future Progress New technologies Non-intrusive in-vehicle alcohol detection 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. The Role of Advocates Progress in impaired driving requires economic and social investments – often made reluctantly All countries have competing priorities and pressing needs Traffic crashes don’t get the same attention as more exotic tragedies – even though they are a major threat to health and welfare Advocacy groups have played important roles in bringing about change Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD) is currently focusing on its Campaign to Eliminate Drunk Driving 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.

Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V. Conclusions Significant progress in reducing impaired driving has been made Vigorous enforcement an important component Future progress may rely on developing technologies Advocacy groups may play an important role in bringing needed attention and motivating change 14.11.2018 Quelle: Verband der TÜV e.V.