PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT

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Presentation transcript:

PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT Ch. 5: Forecasting SUMMARY POM - J. Galván

BASIC POINTS CAN WE FORESEE THE FUTURE? Definition of forecasting Forecast design Qualitative forecasts Jury of executive opinion – Identify consensus Sales force composite – Identify consensus Delphi method – Identify consensus Consumer Market Survey – Ask and observe Quantitative forecasts Time series models – Knowing history = estimate future Causal models – A change in one variable = Observed effect POM - J. Galván

QUESTIONS Forecasts help managers by reducing the degree of: Accuracy Precision Uncertainty Reliability Which one of the following forecasting techniques is used to identify a trend when data is neither growing nor declining rapidly and has no seasonal characteristics. Simple moving average Delphi method Trend adjusted forecast Naïve forecast POM - J. Galván

QUESTIONS (II) A gradual, long term upward or downward movement in data is referred to as: Cycle Trend Seasonality Random variation Which one of the following management functions is based on forecasting? Planning Organizing Leading Controlling POM - J. Galván

QUESTIONS (III) You decide to forecast the number of students in Schiller’s Madrid campus for the next year. Describe the steps to follow and how to implement them We intuitively feel that the specific colour of a car model is very important for the customers. How can you verify this intuition following forecasting techniques? POM - J. Galván

EFFECTS OF POOR FORECASTING POM - J. Galván

YOU MUST FORECAST THE FUTURE! POM - J. Galván

FORECAST NEW INTERESTING USES OF COMPUTERS POM - J. Galván