The Lancet Global Health

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The Lancet Global Health Potential effect of household contact management on childhood tuberculosis: a mathematical modelling study Peter J Dodd, PhD, Courtney M Yuen, PhD, Prof Mercedes C Becerra, PhD, Paul Revill, MSc, Helen E Jenkins, PhD, James A Seddon, PhD The Lancet Global Health DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30401-7 Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Overview of modelling logic The dotted box shows elements of the overall model that are assessed using the decision tree model. BCG=Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination. The Lancet Global Health DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30401-7) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Decision tree model for tuberculosis household contacts ART=antiretroviral therapy. LTBI=latent tuberculosis infection. IGRA=interferon gamma release assay. TST=tuberculin skin test. The Lancet Global Health DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30401-7) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Impact of fully implemented household contact management in children younger than 15 years as incremental demands on the health-care system required to avert one tuberculosis case or death (A) Scenario B versus scenario A. (B) Scenario C versus scenario A. Error bars show 75% uncertainty interval. Scenario A=no household contact management. Scenario B=preventive therapy to children younger than 5 years and children who are HIV positive. Scenario C=preventive therapy to children younger than 5 years and children who are HIV positive or TST positive. The Lancet Global Health DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30401-7) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions