CESM Societal Dimensions Working Group

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Presentation transcript:

CESM Societal Dimensions Working Group Summary of June 21, 2012 Session at 17th CESM Workshop

CESM and Societal Dimensions Develop collaborations between the CESM community & those working on issues relating societal dimensions and climate change CESM WATER IA

IAM topics of interest Land use Urban areas and energy use Water in IAMs Forestry management Assessing renewable energy potentials Air quality, climate, and impacts

Types of IAM-ESM interactions Emissions IAM ESM Land use Climate A. Off-line Hum Env Land Atm. Ocean Chem IAM ESM B. Hum Env Improved Land Atm. Ocean Chem IAM ESM C. Hum Improved Land Atm. Ocean Chem Env IAM ESM D. Full coupling Hum Env Land Atm. Ocean Chem Based on van Vuuren et al., 2012, ERL.

THESIS Toolbox for Human-Earth System Integration & Scaling Impact & Adaptation Assessment iPETS Integrated Assessment Model CESM Community Earth System Model THESIS Toolbox for Human-Earth System Integration & Scaling Data Human System Data Earth System Human System Earth urban agriculture forests Impacts Visualization & Decision Support Evaluation & Uncertainty Analysis Your Favorite EaSM2 Proposal. PI: O’Neill (NCAR); Co-PIs: Lawrence, Levis, Oleson (NCAR), Feddema (U. Kansas), Jain (U. Illinois), Barton (ASU)

Land Use: Overarching Questions How sensitive is regional climate to differences in land use and land cover change? How sensitive are land use decisions to differences in regional climate change?

Possible Near-Term Activities Test sensitivity of climate outcomes in the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to land use assumptions Examine the climate implications of IAM scenarios that make alternative assumptions about agricultural productivity Test the implications of full IAM-CESM coupling vs one-way coupling

Three Major Goals of iESM Create a first generation integrated Earth System Model (iESM) with both the human components of an IAM and a physical ESM. Further develop components and linkages within the iESM and apply the model to improve our understanding of the coupled physical, ecological, and human system. Foster a community of users and applications of iESM.

What core capabilities does this provide? Ability to factor climate change effects into analyses of mitigation strategies. Quantification of resource demands required to address climate change. Determination of how coupling affects the climate-energy-land system: Comparison to uncoupled approaches The development of an iESM means that fully consistent analysis of potential future climate change, emissions mitigation options, and impacts and adaptation options will be possible.

iESM = 4 Models: GCAM, GLM, CLM, & CESM Fossil Fuel & Industrial Emissions (Gridded) GCAM (Human Dimensions Elements only; 15 ghgs, aerosols, SLS; 14 geopolitical regions; 151 Ecoregions) 2. GLM (½ x ½ degree grid land-use-land-cover.) ESM1 (3. CLM & 4. CESM) Land Use LU-LC This provides the same capability as the RCP+CMIP process.

Exploratory simulations with iESM iESM RCP Emulation Fossil fuel emissions GCAM CLM/CESM GLM C stocks, productivity iESM Terrestrial Feedbacks Climate Up/down scaling (space and time) Atm CO2

Next steps with iESM Model is now being vetted by iESM science team. Model has been described to SDWG: Feb. and Jun. 2012 During fall 2012: Share code on read-only basis with SDWG co-chairs Prepare and share papers on iESM Prepare and share scientific and user guides Brief Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium Lay groundwork for sharing iESM output.

Next steps (cont.) During winter 2013 SDWG meeting: Review iESM capability with the SDWG Assess issues of extensibility Pending outcome of this meeting, release in Dec. 2013?

The End