Update on the Status of Numerical Weather Prediction

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Presentation transcript:

Update on the Status of Numerical Weather Prediction

Panel Overview Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is the basis for most forecasts Will provide an update on advances Future NOAA plans Industry trends and capabilities Q&A

NWP Advances 40 km grid spacing in 1998 3 km grid spacing in 2014 240 km/150 mi

Convective Forecasts Comparison Then vs. Now Observation Then Now

Ensembles for aviation are coming A collection of numerical weather forecasts Ensembles are not new Why use? Gives a range of scenarios that may occur Gives confidence in a particular solution Measure of uncertainty Can produce probabilities Can be applied to risk-based decision making

How can one use multiple forecasts?

Why not just use the Mean? According to the Mean, one might feel pretty good

Questions to Ponder What grid spacing and resolution is needed? Is the aviation user community ready for ensembles? What is the role of NWP for human decision makers? Are decision support tools ready for ensembles?