Reflections from TiPSE ESPON Open Seminar 2014 “Opportunities and threats for territorial cohesion: Blue Growth and Urban Poverty” Workshop 2 – Inclusive development Reflections from TiPSE Andrew Copus – The James Hutton Institute

TiPSE, Blue Growth, and Inclusive Development Workstreams… To what extent is Blue Growth delivering inclusive prosperity in coastal and island areas? How can we measure this better?

Is “blue growth” delivering prosperity to coastal and island areas?

Is “blue growth” delivering prosperity to coastal and island areas? (a) NUTS 3 ARoP Rates (Based on ESPON Typologies, CEECs excluded) No clear pattern between coastal/inland regions Island regions generally tend to have higher poverty rates than mainland ones (within the same MS)

Is “blue growth” delivering prosperity to coastal and island areas? (b) The Western Isles Case Study A region surrounded by marine resources, but exhibiting the very opposite of “inclusive growth” Peripherality, increased cost of living, less competitive for entrepreneurship, out-migration, demographic ageing, social exclusion due to high cost of delivering service of general interest. How can such a region participate in “Blue Growth”?

Are the key indicators of poverty and inclusion serving us well? The At Risk of Poverty (ARoP) rate is the key EU 2020 monitoring indicator of poverty. It measures income poverty only. It does not take account of regional variations in cost of living. Adjustment for housing cost is not enough, and introduces urban bias. Minimum income standard research suggests that island areas can suffer very substantial increases in living costs compared with mainland areas.

Blue growth for all islands and coasts? Insularity or coastal location does not automatically bring blue growth potential – which may be “blocked” by peripheral disadvantages. Many island regions, and some coastal areas show relatively high levels of poverty. As regards inclusive growth insular poverty is currently partially masked by a reliance on an indicator which does not take account of regional variations in cost of living, or doing business. Ideal solution is an enhanced EU-SILC (larger samples, more variables relating to living cost). In the short term it is important to be aware that ARoP rates cannot tell the full story about poverty and inequality.

Thank you for your attention. andrew.copus@hutton.ac.uk