Floodproofing Training Program Part 2: Assessing Risk COURSE# 14001 Flood Panel™ Floodproofing Training Program Part 2: Assessing Risk COURSE# 14001 © Flood Panel 2014 April 28, 2014

About The Program: Due to the ever growing threat of flooding across America and the Federal government removing subsidies for the National Flood Insurance Program, there are incentives for commercial building owners to install dry flood proofing mechanisms that mitigate the impacts from flooding. Flood Panel designs, sources, installs and maintains high-quality flood protection products on commercial construction projects. The aluminum Flood Panel are flood barriers that will last for the life of the buildings if properly installed and maintained.   An elite team of expert architects, engineers and contractors have been identified, by Flood Panel, to train industry professionals on the installation and deployment of their vast array of flood protection products. The training is relevant to structural engineers, architects, shell contractors, construction professionals and commercial building owners. The nation’s vulnerability to flooding is increasing. Because new insurance policies and the modernization of FEMA’s flood maps affecting property insurance and insurability, there is a great demand for Flood Panel products to be installed at commercial properties.

William L. Coulbourne, P.E. bill@coulbourneconsulting.com Floodproofing Commercial Buildings William L. Coulbourne, P.E. bill@coulbourneconsulting.com Adam Reeder, P.E. adam.reeder@atkinsglobal.com

Focus: Commercial buildings in the 100 year flood zone Today’s Program Outline: Is flood risk a problem for your clients? Estimate the risks’ frequency and magnitude Alternatives Solutions to address the problem System Designs Implementation Operation and maintenance Factors in System Selection Design Process Load Calculations 1 Flood Zones, Codes, Insurance 2 Assessing Risk 3 Alternatives 4 Functional specifications 5 Dry Floodproofing Systems 6 System Design

Program Outline: Session 1: Flood Zones, codes and insurance Session 2: Dry floodproofing What is it? How is it done? Session 3: Flood loads and protection products Session 4: Conducting on-site assessments

Session 2: Assessing and Communicating Flood Risk Commercial buildings Owners and Architects

Learning Objectives: Understand flooding safety margins Assess frequency and magnitude of flood risk to specific commercial buildings Learn methods to communicate flood hazard risks to owners and tenants

New Challenge: Costs of flood Major Floods National Flood Insurance Program changes Flood Map changes Higher waters Wider areas Building Code Changes IBC NYC Dept. of Bldgs. etc. Insurance changes Rates 10x Standards higher Solutions limited Flood protection: Certification Required Flood Certificate = Significantly lower rates Code compliance

Defining Risk and Residual Risk: Potential losses associated with a hazard Defined in terms of: Costs and Consequences Expected probability and frequency Exposure to hazard Residual Risk Level of risk not offset by hazard-resistant design or insurance Must be accepted by the property owner

Assess Potential Consequences: Rule of thumb Construction/replacement cost per square foot Applied to floodable levels Add in costs of business disruption Realistic period for resumption of operations after flood much longer than you think Or, ask the insurer

Assess: Probability of Occurrence Evaluate for a given time period (e.g.: the life of the structure) Consider frequent/less severe events Consider less frequent/more severe events Codes and standards Provide protection to specified recurrence intervals Intended to provide life-safety protection Provide ‘minimum’ property protection CCM p. 6-3

Probability of Natural Hazard Event Occurrence Length of Period (Years) Frequency – Recurrence Interval 10-YR 25-YR 50-YR 100-YR 500-YR 1,000-YR 1 10% 4% 2% 1% 0.2% 0.1% 10 65% 34% 18% 20 88% 56% 33% 3% 25 93% 64% 40% 22% 5% 30 96% 71% 45% 26% 7% 50 99+% 87% 39% 70 99.94+% 94% 76% 51% 13% 100 99.99+% 98% 63% Let’s use rolling dice as an example to explain probabilities. If I have one die the chance of rolling a 6 is 1/6, so what does that mean if I roll it six times? Does that mean it is 1/6 + 1/6 +1/6…, which would equal 6/6 or 100% chance. We know this isn’t the case, so what’s going on here? It is actually better represented by the chances of not rolling a 6. Therefore we would look at 5/6 or the chance of not rolling a six. Further if we draw a diagram showing each possibility the die could turn up for each roll we find out that counting the number of possibilities that it is more simple to just multiply the each chance that it will not come up as 6 by the next chance it will not come up and so on. The equation therefore can be simplified as 5/6 x 5/6 x 5/6…, which gives us the chance that you would not roll a six. If we subtract that number from 1 or 100% we get the chance you would roll a 6 over six attempts. The number is actually 66.5% not 100%. To further simplify this we can look at it as 1 minus 5/6 to the 6th power. Using this approach for a 100-year flood we can say that there is an annual chance of 99% that a 100-year flood will not happen in a year. If we look at it over 30 years we would say 99/100 to the 30th power, which will result in approximately 74%, so there is a 74% chance you will not have a 100-year event over 30 years. If we subtract that 74% chance from a 100 percent chance or 1-.74 = .26 or a 26% chance over 30 years you would have a 100 year flood. Pn = 1 – (1-Pa)n ; where Pa = annual probability, and n = length of period

Compare Flood to Other Dangers 40% 50 Year Flood Chance in 30 years* Chance in one single year 35% 30% 100 Year Flood 25% 1 % 20% 0.8% Burglary 15% 0.6% Note to Instructors: Owners protect against burglary and fire even though a flood is more likely if they live in the SFHA Explain misconception of 100-year flood event Fire 10% 0.4% 5% 0.2% Magnitude 7 earthquake within 100 miles of NYC* *New York NY http://geohazards.usgs.gov/ *FEMA 0% 0% Low Consequence Severity Very High

Risk Reduction and Residual Risk 2 ways to Reduce/Manage Risk Physically through mitigation Financially through insurance Risk reduction is combination of: Physical measures, such as building codes, design and construction, and best practices Factors of safety, i.e., freeboard Insurance measures Residual risk remains Significantly less than initial risk CCM p. 6-5

Reducing and Managing Risk through Building Codes Risk Categories Defined in ASCE 7-10, 2012 IBC and NYC Code “G” Higher risk category requires stronger design Category II: Majority of residential, commercial, industrial buildings Category III: Many occupants (theaters, schools, prisons) Category IV: Critical facilities (hospitals, fire stations) NYC building codes require higher freeboard for Category III and IV

100 year vs. 500 year flood Constructing to the 500-year flood greatly reduces the risk of being flooded over the next 30 years Buildings constructed to the 0.2-percent-annual-change flood elevation Buildings constructed to BFE BFE BFE +3 Illustration A, Chapter 6: Comparison of the percent chance of houses being flooded over a 30-year period after being elevated to the BFE (left) and the 0.2-percent-annual-chance flood elevation (right)

Reducing and Managing Risk by Adding Freeboard Provides additional protection for floods exceeding the base Flood elevation (BFE) Results in lower flood insurance premiums Accounts for future, and changing, conditions Remaining Risk management Insurance National Flood Insurance Self-insurance Residual Risk remains after insurance Purchasing insurance is not a substitute for a properly designed and constructed building. Insurance is a way of reducing financial exposure to residual risk. CCM p. 6-10

Communicating Risk to Clients Communicate risk to owners Use technical terms Use non-technical terms Owners often determine acceptable level of risk based on: Potential damage Cost Aesthetics CCM p. 6-13

Risk reduction steps Total risk Building Codes Construct -ion Flood Proofing Insurance Residual Risk

Insurance Example Downtown Bistro First Floor Floor elevation: 1 ft below BFE First Floor Area 10,000 sq ft Perimeter 400 ft Value psf $200 Value $2M Without floodproofing Elevation +/- BFE -1 ft Insurance rate/$100/yr $4.37 Insurance cost/yr $87,400 Further reading: National Flood Insurance Program, Flood insurance Manual, 1 June 2014, Section 5 “Rating” XVII, V, VI, VII, VIII

Insurance Example Downtown Bistro Floor elevation: 1 ft below BFE Without With floodproofing floodproofing Elevation +/- BFE -1 ft +2 ft Insurance rate/$100/yr $4.37 $0.36 Insurance cost/yr $87,400 $7,200 Insurance cost difference $80,200 Dry Floodproof cost, one time ($81,600) Ten year net savings $720,400 Selecting optimum dry floodproof height Basis: 10 Yr Savings, Net $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $- -1 1 2 3 + / - BFE feet

Practical steps: It Takes a Team Teammate Key Roles Qualities Architects Building Systems, Accessibility Dry Floodproof experience and training Engineers Structure loads, building systems Dry Floodproof Barrier Manufacturer Design and manufacture Experience, Reliability Professional team services Design library Construction specialist Installation and test Building operations Storage, maintenance and deployment Reliability Training Insurance expert Advisor on insurance risk Flood expertise Flood Team Best Practices Regional expertise Deep team cooperation Flood Panel professional training program Professional and product certification Exclusive national expert resource core Professional and individual independence and integrity

1. The area below the BFE can be used for: Pop Quiz 1. The area below the BFE can be used for: Parking Access Storage All of the above

Pop Quiz 2. Dry flood proofing does not require any special certification in order to have the method be accepted by the insurance company. True False

Pop Quiz 3. Probability of experiencing 100-year flood in 30 years is: 10% 26% 51% 63%

Pop Quiz 4. Freeboard should be added to the flood protection elevation when: Flood maps are very dated Flood elevations are more than 10 ft. Elevation of the existing building is chosen as the mitigation measure Always

Contacts & Questions: Tom Osborne, PE President / Engineering Office: 561-744-2727 tom@floodpanel.com Address: Flood Panel 5500 Military Trail #22-220 Jupiter, FL 33458 Telephone: 1-888-744-2607 (Toll Free) 1-561-744-2727 (Phone) 1-561-744-2755 (Fax)

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